prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 163 Southern 56 55.4, 255 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 19.4
97% 9 Utah State 62 55.8, 192 San Jose State 24 16.8
97% 3 Michigan 42 44.8, 195 Rutgers 7 5.0
96% 185 Dayton 63 51.3, 251 Morehead State 20 25.4
96% 125 Louisiana Tech 28 41.2, 227 Rice 13 16.9
96% 42 Colgate 48 41.3, 237 Lehigh 6 10.3
96% 35 Appalachian State 38 41.3, 205 Texas State - San Marc 7 12.7
96% 11 Central Florida 35 48.3, 145 Navy 24 17.7
95% 12 North Dakota State 48 39.0, 162 Missouri State 7 8.5
94% 200 Lamar 38 53.5, 253 Houston Baptist 9 27.3
94% 55 Memphis 47 43.5, 149 Tulsa 21 26.4
94% 33 Stanford 48 47.4, 142 Oregon State 17 20.6
94% 20 South Dakota State 57 46.6, 138 Southern Illinois 38 25.3
94% 1 Alabama 24 37.2, 13 Mississippi State 0 12.4
93% 37 Dartmouth 35 35.4, 183 Cornell 24 10.4
93% 32 James Madison 48 40.6, 112 Rhode Island 31 18.1
92% 143 San Diego 56 51.4, 246 Davidson 52 22.8
92% 26 Kennesaw State 51 45.2, 154 Monmouth 14 24.9
92% 5 Oklahoma 48 53.9, 48 Oklahoma State 47 33.8
91% 186 Charleston Southern 16 34.3, 240 Gardner - Webb 0 13.6
91% 7 Missouri 33 40.1, 68 Vanderbilt 28 22.8
90% 123 North Carolina A&T 28 30.7, 229 Savannah State 12 11.3
90% 99 New Hampshire 24 32.1, 191 Albany 10 14.0
90% 76 Buffalo 48 39.3, 181 Kent State 14 20.0
90% 73 Air Force 42 39.8, 135 New Mexico 24 22.8
90% 40 Duke 42 35.9, 117 North Carolina 35 19.0
90% 39 Army 31 39.0, 231 Lafayette 13 9.6
90% 6 Princeton 59 40.2, 115 Yale 43 19.8
89% 159 Nicholls State 47 31.0, 241 Stephen F. Austin 14 11.9
89% 137 Furman 49 42.1, 225 Virginia Military 13 24.7
89% 107 Middle Tennessee State 48 32.9, 216 Texas - El Paso 32 14.9
89% 38 Syracuse 54 51.1, 155 Louisville 23 27.8
89% 23 Notre Dame 42 36.3, 82 Florida State 13 20.9
89% 2 Clemson 27 40.1, 36 Boston College 7 21.1
88% 129 Holy Cross 17 37.9, 236 Fordham 13 18.3
88% 84 Brigham Young 35 40.5, 167 Massachusetts 16 23.9
88% 61 Virginia 45 39.3, 133 Liberty 24 19.8
87% 180 Tennessee - Martin 38 41.8, 238 Tennessee Tech 13 23.9
87% 102 Florida Atlantic 34 36.2, 189 Western Kentucky 15 20.1
87% 70 Nebraska 54 45.9, 130 Illinois 35 28.2
87% 43 Arizona State 31 38.7, 104 California - Los Angel 28 23.9
87% 19 Utah 32 39.1, 71 Oregon 25 22.9
87% 10 Louisiana State 24 34.8, 103 Arkansas 17 16.2
86% 224 Morgan State 9 33.4, 250 Delaware State 0 21.1
86% 108 Marshall 30 31.7, 173 North Carolina - Charl 13 15.1
85% 111 Southern Methodist 62 38.9, 219 Connecticut 50 23.9
85% 110 Nevada - Reno 49 40.0, 160 Colorado State 10 28.1
85% 63 Alabama - Birmingham 26 30.3, 139 Southern Mississippi 23 15.4
85% 17 Penn State 22 37.8, 56 Wisconsin 10 24.5
84% 121 North Dakota 17 34.2, 161 Portland State 10 19.9
83% 136 Montana State 35 39.0, 197 Northern Colorado 7 25.7
83% 4 Georgia 27 32.1, 30 Auburn 10 17.9
82% 83 Jacksonville State 41 36.9, 166 Tennessee State 14 22.7
82% 28 Texas A&M 38 41.4, 50 Mississippi 24 31.6
81% 88 Eastern Michigan 27 30.2, 131 Akron 7 19.4
81% 21 Iowa State 28 35.1, 81 Baylor 14 21.3
80% 92 Tulane 24 34.1, 158 East Carolina 18 21.3
80% 53 Cincinnati 35 36.5, 120 South Florida 23 22.4
79% 8 West Virginia 47 33.0, 52 Texas Christian 10 21.3
78% 124 Florida International 45 31.3, 215 Texas - San Antonio 7 17.8
78% 98 Louisiana - Lafayette 36 41.3, 187 Georgia State 22 27.4
78% 78 Kansas State 21 31.0, 97 Kansas 17 17.9
75% 114 Wofford 38 42.3, 196 Western Carolina 23 29.6
74% 207 Eastern Kentucky 40 34.5, 247 Robert Morris 39 21.3
74% 118 Weber State 31 32.5, 218 Southern Utah 18 17.2
72% 165 Columbia 42 27.8, 233 Brown 20 17.4
71% 198 Drake 13 30.1, 211 Marist 10 19.6
69% 122 Montana 46 36.4, 171 Idaho 27 27.6
67% 234 Hampton 54 37.5, 254 Mississippi Valley Sta 39 26.0
67% 212 Campbell 34 22.6, 252 Presbyterian 6 11.3
67% 25 Florida 35 31.6, 47 South Carolina 31 21.7
66% 243 Valparaiso 48 37.5, 249 Jacksonville 30 32.6
66% 206 Bethune - Cookman 28 33.1, 222 North Carolina Central 25 25.5
66% 64 Pittsburgh 52 32.9, 93 Virginia Tech 22 26.8
66% 15 Ohio State 26 29.7, 46 Michigan State 6 23.9
65% 60 Stony Brook 17 27.8, 79 Delaware 3 21.1
64% 230 Georgetown 14 21.1, 235 Bucknell 3 16.9
64% 194 Duquesne 28 30.5, 175 Sacred Heart 24 27.2
64% 34 Washington State 31 32.4, 72 Colorado 7 28.6
63% 94 Harvard 29 23.8, 152 Pennsylvania 7 21.5
63% 65 Eastern Washington 59 36.2, 51 California - Davis 20 33.8
63% 44 Georgia Tech 27 32.7, 41 Miami - Florida 21 29.9
60% 86 Indiana 34 30.6, 77 Maryland 32 29.4
55% 119 Arkansas State 44 30.6, 132 Coastal Carolina 16 29.9
54% 96 Northern Illinois 38 30.3, 69 Toledo 15 29.9
48% 126 Maine 28 30.5, 144 Richmond 9 30.9
45% 223 Northwestern State 37 22.7, 217 McNeese State 34 23.5
45% 169 Northeast Louisiana 38 32.2, 193 South Alabama 10 32.9
41% 45 Boise State 24 26.9, 16 Fresno State 17 28.3
39% 248 Butler 28 27.2, 228 Stetson 23 29.1
37% 226 Grambling 29 21.3, 204 Alabama A&M 16 25.4
37% 190 Central Connecticut 30 24.2, 203 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 26.7
37% 80 Towson 41 31.0, 85 Elon 10 34.9
37% 49 Temple 59 35.4, 57 Houston 49 38.6
36% 245 Jackson State 20 15.4, 239 Alabama State 2 19.4
36% 172 California Poly 37 38.8, 109 Idaho State 14 43.5
36% 151 Mercer 13 23.3, 148 Tennessee - Chattanoog 9 26.9
36% 101 Troy State 35 22.7, 100 Georgia Southern 21 25.9
35% 140 South Dakota 17 32.6, 95 Western Illinois 12 37.6
35% 31 Texas 41 34.3, 22 Texas Tech 34 39.2
34% 232 Norfolk State 29 26.4, 174 Howard 17 31.8
34% 201 Eastern Illinois 52 33.2, 150 Austin Peay 21 40.4
34% 184 Abilene Christian 17 31.6, 182 Sam Houston State 10 38.5
34% 164 Incarnate Word 40 30.6, 178 Central Arkansas 27 38.5
34% 90 Tennessee 24 17.5, 29 Kentucky 7 24.6
33% 141 Youngstown State 31 18.1, 66 Northern Iowa 10 26.3
33% 106 Miami - Ohio 30 29.7, 54 Ohio 28 37.4
29% 89 California 15 19.7, 59 Southern California 14 29.3
27% 105 Minnesota 41 23.4, 18 Purdue 10 36.6
21% 214 South Carolina State 44 12.6, 153 Florida A&M 21 25.5
21% 116 Indiana State 28 26.0, 58 Illinois State 23 37.4
20% 244 Wagner 52 33.3, 221 Bryant 36 45.4
20% 176 The Citadel 42 24.1, 74 Samford 27 37.3
19% 177 Murray State 40 28.5, 87 Southeast Missouri Sta 38 41.2
18% 188 William & Mary 24 11.5, 128 Villanova 17 25.7
17% 208 Bowling Green 24 22.8, 156 Central Michigan 13 35.5
14% 113 Wake Forest 27 26.7, 27 North Carolina State 23 44.6
13% 67 Northwestern 14 16.8, 14 Iowa 10 32.3
12% 179 Old Dominion 34 25.8, 62 North Texas 31 43.1
6% 170 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 17.1, 91 San Diego State 24 37.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.77 33 0.70 14 0.94 39 0.93 27 1.03 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 120 85 94.5 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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