prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 19 Fresno State 31 44.9, 187 San Jose State 13 7.1
95% 73 Northern Iowa 16 40.8, 202 Lamar 13 13.1
95% 2 Clemson 56 45.5, 34 South Carolina 35 13.3
94% 55 Michigan State 14 29.3, 186 Rutgers 10 3.7
94% 8 Missouri 38 46.2, 110 Arkansas 0 21.9
93% 75 Toledo 51 40.8, 185 Central Michigan 13 21.6
93% 46 Temple 57 48.6, 224 Connecticut 7 17.6
93% 36 Ohio 49 42.3, 175 Akron 28 16.7
92% 52 Cincinnati 56 37.9, 140 East Carolina 6 15.8
92% 1 Alabama 52 37.5, 18 Auburn 21 12.5
91% 195 Prairie View 60 37.5, 250 Texas Southern 14 17.8
91% 74 Air Force 27 41.1, 158 Colorado State 19 21.3
91% 66 Jacksonville State 34 40.2, 143 East Tennessee State 27 18.4
91% 60 Northwestern 24 42.8, 156 Illinois 16 19.8
90% 31 James Madison 20 36.4, 104 Delaware 6 16.8
90% 16 Utah 35 30.3, 77 Brigham Young 27 11.1
90% 11 Central Florida 38 44.7, 125 South Florida 10 26.1
89% 79 North Texas 24 36.0, 221 Texas - San Antonio 21 14.0
88% 26 Penn State 38 39.3, 67 Maryland 3 24.4
88% 13 Iowa 31 37.8, 71 Nebraska 28 19.5
87% 61 Oregon 55 46.2, 139 Oregon State 15 32.9
86% 93 Eastern Michigan 28 33.9, 190 Kent State 20 19.2
86% 4 Georgia 45 40.9, 35 Georgia Tech 21 26.5
85% 131 Southern Mississippi 39 30.7, 215 Texas - El Paso 7 17.5
85% 49 Appalachian State 21 30.3, 103 Troy State 10 15.7
83% 98 Miami - Ohio 42 35.1, 160 Ball State 21 21.8
83% 22 Texas 24 35.6, 86 Kansas 17 22.3
80% 127 Montana State 35 40.4, 178 Incarnate Word 14 27.0
80% 9 Mississippi State 35 36.8, 54 Mississippi 3 25.7
79% 106 Arkansas State 33 31.6, 201 Texas State - San Marc 7 19.8
77% 83 Buffalo 44 39.3, 188 Bowling Green 14 27.5
75% 252 Alabama State 31 38.9, 254 Mississippi Valley Sta 24 27.8
75% 47 Kentucky 56 35.9, 180 Louisville 10 20.1
74% 148 Liberty 28 46.6, 205 New Mexico State 21 35.3
74% 30 Stanford 49 32.9, 95 California - Los Angel 42 22.9
73% 96 Georgia Southern 35 34.6, 184 Georgia State 14 23.0
73% 12 Notre Dame 24 33.1, 76 Southern California 17 22.2
68% 39 North Carolina State 34 36.9, 105 North Carolina 28 26.9
67% 32 Iowa State 42 22.5, 65 Kansas State 38 13.1
66% 161 Southern 38 29.8, 216 Grambling 28 23.0
66% 78 California 33 25.8, 94 Colorado 21 19.3
66% 56 Vanderbilt 38 26.9, 81 Tennessee 13 19.9
66% 44 Miami - Florida 24 29.5, 40 Pittsburgh 3 22.3
65% 119 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 39.0, 153 Northeast Louisiana 28 34.8
65% 51 Arizona State 41 36.0, 85 Arizona 40 32.4
65% 38 Purdue 28 36.0, 70 Indiana 21 31.1
64% 122 Wyoming 31 27.2, 144 New Mexico 3 22.7
64% 112 Tulane 29 28.7, 126 Navy 28 23.5
63% 124 Wofford 19 27.5, 109 Elon 7 25.0
63% 27 Florida 41 29.2, 84 Florida State 14 26.7
63% 21 Texas A&M 74 24.7, 25 Louisiana State 72 22.5
62% 28 Boise State 33 37.6, 17 Utah State 24 35.2
61% 135 Nicholls State 49 31.0, 145 San Diego 30 29.0
54% 59 Memphis 52 47.1, 50 Houston 31 46.3
51% 62 Texas Christian 31 30.7, 33 Oklahoma State 24 30.6
47% 87 Middle Tennessee State 27 28.1, 72 Alabama - Birmingham 3 28.4
42% 15 Ohio State 62 29.6, 3 Michigan 39 30.8
41% 5 Oklahoma 59 44.5, 6 West Virginia 56 45.8
38% 100 Marshall 28 26.4, 101 Florida International 25 27.9
37% 130 Western Michigan 28 25.7, 92 Northern Illinois 21 28.5
36% 164 Tulsa 27 29.3, 120 Southern Methodist 24 32.8
36% 123 Virginia Tech 34 24.9, 57 Virginia 31 29.4
34% 209 South Alabama 31 26.7, 162 Coastal Carolina 28 32.2
34% 108 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 25.1, 68 Stony Brook 14 31.6
34% 58 Syracuse 42 29.9, 48 Boston College 21 36.1
34% 29 Washington 28 24.7, 14 Washington State 15 30.7
33% 213 Rice 27 31.3, 133 Old Dominion 13 39.2
33% 152 Nevada - Las Vegas 34 30.2, 89 Nevada - Reno 29 38.4
28% 82 Baylor 35 31.5, 41 Texas Tech 24 40.8
23% 236 North Carolina Central 21 15.4, 200 South Carolina State 17 28.0
22% 173 Western Kentucky 30 18.9, 132 Louisiana Tech 15 30.4
21% 169 Duquesne 31 26.5, 64 Towson 10 42.4
19% 114 Wake Forest 59 24.9, 42 Duke 7 39.3
17% 88 Minnesota 37 20.8, 45 Wisconsin 15 35.8
13% 154 North Carolina - Charl 27 19.1, 91 Florida Atlantic 24 35.5
13% 146 Hawaii 31 20.1, 99 San Diego State 30 35.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.73 26 0.95 12 0.88 18 0.91 15 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 76 55 58.0 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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