2018 Week 14 (30 Nov - 1 Dec) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred
 95%  30 South Carolina          28 42.9,   177 Akron                    3 14.9
 94%  43 North Carolina State    58 45.3,   147 East Carolina            3 19.6
 94%   9 North Dakota State      52 39.8,   123 Montana State           10  7.8
 93%  51 Appalachian State       30 41.5,   116 Louisiana - Lafayette   19 22.2
 93%   2 Clemson                 42 43.3,    49 Pittsburgh              10 18.5
 92%  26 Eastern Washington      42 42.2,   134 Nicholls State          21 21.0
 91%  29 Kennesaw State          13 41.1,   118 Wofford                 10 21.1
 90%  21 South Dakota State      51 44.0,   131 Duquesne                 6 22.6
 86%  11 Central Florida         56 46.2,    50 Memphis                 41 32.0
 85%  10 Ohio State              45 39.2,    66 Northwestern            24 24.9
 83%  31 Iowa State              27 32.5,   198 Drake                   24 11.3
 79%   1 Alabama                 35 36.0,     3 Georgia                 28 24.4
 67% 168 Liberty                 52 34.7,   235 Norfolk State           17 24.5
 67%   5 Oklahoma                39 45.4,    25 Texas                   27 36.9
 65% 137 The Citadel             43 26.9,   195 Charleston Southern     14 22.6
 64% 160 Alcorn State            37 30.0,   157 Southern                28 26.7
 64% 112 Virginia Tech           41 30.6,    93 Marshall                20 26.5
 64%  63 California - Davis      23 30.6,   103 Northern Iowa           16 25.9
 62%  36 Stanford                23 25.1,    61 California              13 23.2
 61% 110 Weber State             48 28.0,    90 Southeast Missouri Sta  23 26.4
 61%  89 Alabama - Birmingham    27 28.2,    77 Middle Tennessee State  25 26.7
 54%  22 Washington              10 23.0,    18 Utah                     3 22.5
 50%  47 Colgate                 23 20.2,    34 James Madison           20 20.2

 48% 100 Northern Illinois       30 23.6,    76 Buffalo                 29 23.8
 36%  28 Fresno State            19 22.9,    24 Boise State             16 27.4
 35% 117 Maine                   55 25.8,    67 Jacksonville State      27 30.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 1.28  11 1.28   1 1.26   4 1.16   7 1.07   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  26  23  19.3 1.19

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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