prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
73% 2 Ohio State 77 61.5, 159 Oregon State 31 19.6
70% 9 Oklahoma State 58 62.7, 179 Missouri State 17 27.9
70% 6 Georgia 45 58.0, 172 Austin Peay 0 20.2
69% 70 Toledo 66 54.6, 249 Virginia Military 3 20.1
69% 41 Oregon 58 58.5, 181 Bowling Green 24 30.5
69% 37 Texas A&M 59 57.4, 212 Northwestern State 7 24.9
69% 23 Mississippi State 63 56.6, 234 Stephen F. Austin 6 19.2
69% 12 North Dakota State 49 52.5, 199 California Poly 3 14.7
69% 11 Texas Christian 55 55.9, 190 Southern 7 23.7
69% 10 Wisconsin 34 52.1, 135 Western Kentucky 3 21.0
69% 4 Oklahoma 63 60.4, 67 Florida Atlantic 14 33.4
69% 3 Clemson 48 52.1, 99 Furman 7 22.9
68% 188 Eastern Kentucky 49 51.2, 252 Morehead State 23 29.9
68% 170 North Dakota 35 51.9, 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 24.4
68% 168 New Mexico 62 51.2, 248 Incarnate Word 30 29.5
68% 136 Buffalo 48 48.2, 245 Delaware State 10 25.6
68% 87 Baylor 55 49.9, 230 Abilene Christian 27 25.2
68% 85 Minnesota 48 41.7, 204 New Mexico State 10 15.4
68% 77 Ohio 38 52.2, 208 Howard 32 31.3
68% 25 Southern California 43 53.2, 138 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 27.2
68% 17 Central Florida 56 50.4, 180 Connecticut 17 26.6
68% 5 Penn State 45 47.9, 66 Appalachian State 38 24.6
67% 132 Nevada - Reno 72 51.5, 226 Portland State 19 34.2
67% 125 Rutgers 35 43.6, 217 Texas State - San Marc 7 24.4
67% 64 Houston 45 42.0, 205 Rice 27 22.3
67% 31 Georgia Tech 41 48.7, 169 Alcorn State 0 28.7
67% 30 Memphis 66 51.2, 133 Mercer 14 34.1
66% 202 Dayton 49 35.0, 241 Robert Morris 28 18.2
66% 155 Alabama - Birmingham 52 46.0, 236 Savannah State 0 30.8
66% 130 California - Davis 44 47.7, 220 San Jose State 38 33.4
66% 124 Southern Mississippi 55 41.1, 244 Jackson State 7 22.4
66% 118 Northern Arizona 30 44.5, 229 Texas - El Paso 10 26.6
66% 83 Fresno State 79 40.9, 176 Idaho 13 24.8
66% 79 Arkansas 55 46.7, 197 Eastern Illinois 20 30.2
66% 59 Florida 53 39.9, 160 Charleston Southern 6 23.4
66% 52 South Carolina 49 43.6, 149 Coastal Carolina 15 25.9
66% 47 Missouri 51 44.3, 162 Tennessee - Martin 14 28.3
66% 45 South Florida 34 45.9, 148 Elon 14 28.4
66% 39 Michigan State 38 41.9, 111 Utah State 31 25.8
66% 22 Iowa 33 42.8, 95 Northern Illinois 7 26.3
66% 1 Alabama 51 45.6, 18 Louisville 14 29.2
65% 192 Sacred Heart 35 39.4, 235 Lafayette 6 27.5
65% 167 Towson 36 42.2, 239 Morgan State 10 27.5
65% 151 Liberty 52 44.0, 184 Old Dominion 10 32.2
65% 141 Illinois 31 36.6, 211 Kent State 24 22.7
65% 117 Southern Illinois 49 44.4, 213 Murray State 10 30.7
65% 105 North Carolina A&T 28 40.5, 163 East Carolina 23 29.5
65% 68 Colorado 45 43.0, 150 Colorado State 13 29.9
65% 63 Arizona State 49 41.6, 131 Texas - San Antonio 7 28.0
65% 50 Indiana 38 44.4, 154 Florida International 28 31.2
65% 38 West Virginia 40 44.1, 93 Tennessee 14 32.2
65% 34 Wake Forest 23 41.9, 127 Tulane 17 30.3
65% 15 Stanford 31 40.8, 62 San Diego State 10 26.5
64% 193 Tennessee - Chattanoog 34 35.7, 209 Tennessee Tech 10 26.9
64% 129 Wofford 28 37.3, 178 The Citadel 21 27.7
64% 122 Colgate 24 38.0, 174 Holy Cross 17 27.7
64% 97 Vanderbilt 35 39.9, 137 Middle Tennessee State 7 30.3
64% 94 Arkansas State 48 40.4, 175 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 30.3
64% 92 Louisiana Tech 30 38.8, 182 South Alabama 26 30.6
64% 78 Kentucky 35 42.3, 119 Central Michigan 20 33.0
64% 55 Pittsburgh 33 37.5, 144 Albany 7 26.6
64% 43 Duke 34 37.4, 75 Army 14 28.4
64% 42 Utah 41 36.7, 82 Weber State 10 26.6
64% 35 Kansas State 27 44.0, 58 South Dakota 24 35.8
62% 153 Georgia Southern 37 34.4, 207 South Carolina State 6 27.4
61% 166 Tennessee State 34 36.9, 191 Bethune - Cookman 3 30.7
61% 60 California 24 41.4, 65 North Carolina 17 35.9
61% 36 Washington State 41 31.6, 73 Wyoming 19 25.6
60% 13 Notre Dame 24 37.6, 21 Michigan 17 32.3
59% 158 Lehigh 21 42.0, 189 Saint Francis - Pennsy 19 37.4
56% 171 McNeese State 17 37.0, 185 Northern Colorado 14 33.5
56% 164 William & Mary 14 29.2, 216 Bucknell 7 25.4
56% 40 Boise State 56 37.9, 71 Troy State 20 34.6
55% 113 Marshall 35 34.8, 152 Miami - Ohio 28 31.9
53% 107 Maine 35 33.9, 110 New Hampshire 7 32.1
53% 86 Villanova 19 29.2, 72 Temple 17 27.4
52% 33 Northwestern 31 33.1, 51 Purdue 27 31.7
51% 121 Eastern Michigan 51 39.1, 139 Monmouth 17 38.8
51% 7 Auburn 21 32.7, 8 Washington 16 32.2
50% 19 Louisiana State 33 31.1, 16 Miami - Florida 17 31.1
49% 237 Georgetown 39 29.9, 238 Marist 14 30.7
49% 194 Nicholls State 26 36.4, 183 Kansas 23 36.9
48% 108 Tulsa 38 38.8, 112 Central Arkansas 27 40.0
48% 54 Mississippi 47 47.3, 44 Texas Tech 27 48.3
47% 145 Northeast Louisiana 34 43.6, 156 Southeast Louisiana 31 45.1
47% 120 North Texas 46 47.1, 100 Southern Methodist 23 48.7
46% 102 Air Force 38 35.1, 96 Stony Brook 0 37.1
46% 14 Virginia Tech 24 31.1, 24 Florida State 3 33.3
44% 46 Boston College 55 36.8, 32 Massachusetts 21 39.7
43% 106 Montana 26 35.3, 53 Northern Iowa 23 38.8
42% 74 Syracuse 55 40.9, 90 Western Michigan 42 44.8
42% 28 North Carolina State 24 34.3, 20 James Madison 13 38.9
41% 203 Prairie View 40 29.2, 196 North Carolina Central 24 33.8
41% 101 Virginia 42 35.9, 69 Richmond 13 40.4
40% 91 Hawaii 59 36.8, 48 Navy 41 41.6
37% 134 Montana State 26 31.2, 61 Western Illinois 23 38.5
36% 225 North Carolina - Charl 34 31.4, 195 Fordham 10 42.2
36% 187 Louisiana - Lafayette 49 33.2, 142 Grambling 17 43.6
36% 173 Georgia State 24 26.2, 103 Kennesaw State 20 37.0
35% 215 Ball State 42 31.3, 157 Central Connecticut 6 44.5
35% 177 Rhode Island 21 25.2, 114 Delaware 19 39.2
35% 109 Maryland 34 28.9, 29 Texas 29 43.2
34% 140 Brigham Young 28 31.7, 49 Arizona 23 45.7
33% 161 Cincinnati 26 27.9, 56 California - Los Angel 17 46.5
32% 242 North Alabama 34 45.6, 80 Southern Utah 30 72.9
32% 219 Butler 23 20.3, 57 Youngstown State 21 47.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
27 0.81 78 1.30 1 1.37 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 80 67.0 1.19
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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