prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 2 Clemson 30 35.6, 11 Notre Dame 3 21.5
82% 24 Utah State 52 41.4, 89 North Texas 13 28.6
80% 20 Eastern Washington 50 38.5, 80 Maine 19 24.1
77% 1 Alabama 45 48.0, 5 Oklahoma 34 35.2
71% 74 Brigham Young 49 32.9, 131 Western Michigan 18 23.4
70% 3 North Dakota State 44 35.3, 14 South Dakota State 21 23.7
67% 51 Appalachian State 45 30.2, 75 Middle Tennessee State 13 21.8
67% 38 Ohio 27 32.2, 107 San Diego State 0 23.4
67% 17 Washington State 28 31.7, 50 Iowa State 26 24.3
66% 122 North Carolina A&T 24 28.1, 146 Alcorn State 22 22.1
66% 43 Cincinnati 35 30.6, 82 Virginia Tech 31 24.0
66% 16 Auburn 63 29.4, 35 Purdue 14 23.2
65% 30 Stanford 14 31.2, 53 Pittsburgh 13 26.4
64% 138 Louisiana Tech 31 34.7, 136 Hawaii 14 31.8
64% 28 Fresno State 31 29.1, 49 Arizona State 20 24.9
64% 6 Ohio State 28 31.9, 19 Washington 23 28.0
63% 119 Tulane 41 32.3, 118 Louisiana - Lafayette 24 29.6
63% 52 Texas Christian 10 20.8, 72 California 7 17.7
62% 40 Oregon 7 24.5, 65 Michigan State 6 22.3
61% 91 Georgia Southern 23 27.3, 98 Eastern Michigan 21 25.6
58% 57 Army 70 33.6, 55 Houston 14 32.3
48% 106 Troy State 42 26.7, 77 Buffalo 32 27.0
44% 21 Texas A&M 52 32.7, 26 North Carolina State 13 33.5
40% 92 Alabama - Birmingham 37 20.8, 94 Northern Illinois 13 22.3
37% 120 Marshall 38 27.2, 126 South Florida 20 30.3
37% 101 Nevada - Reno 16 29.1, 96 Arkansas State 13 31.1
37% 23 Louisiana State 40 28.9, 12 Central Florida 32 32.0
36% 70 Duke 56 27.7, 41 Temple 27 31.7
36% 68 Wake Forest 37 39.4, 47 Memphis 34 42.6
36% 63 Virginia 28 26.1, 32 South Carolina 0 29.9
36% 15 Iowa 27 17.1, 7 Mississippi State 22 21.5
35% 76 Baylor 45 25.6, 42 Vanderbilt 38 29.9
35% 56 Wisconsin 35 21.1, 34 Miami - Florida 3 26.2
34% 102 Florida International 35 35.2, 62 Toledo 32 40.6
34% 71 Minnesota 34 28.4, 37 Georgia Tech 10 35.9
34% 36 Kentucky 27 20.8, 18 Penn State 24 28.5
34% 31 Oklahoma State 38 36.9, 9 Missouri 33 42.2
33% 39 Syracuse 34 34.9, 10 West Virginia 18 43.0
33% 22 Florida 41 21.8, 8 Michigan 15 30.7
29% 69 Northwestern 31 18.9, 25 Utah 20 28.2
26% 29 Texas 28 22.8, 4 Georgia 21 34.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.44 29 0.75 5 0.82 3 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 41 21 27.2 0.77
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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