15 Sep 2019: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2019 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

FBS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  5  14  9.4  7.0 Alabama                 
  2  7  13  9.1  7.2 Clemson                 
  3  6  11  9.0  6.7 Georgia                 
  4  8  11  9.5  6.1 Ohio State              
  5 25  11 10.0  5.5 Oklahoma                
  6  7   9  8.9  6.3 Louisiana State         
  7 14   9  9.3  5.9 Central Florida         
  8 23   9  8.4  6.6 Auburn                  
  9  8   9  8.6  6.4 Notre Dame              
 10 22   9  9.1  5.9 Missouri                
 11 13   8  8.3  6.7 Washington              
 12  9   9  8.7  6.2 Penn State              
 13 56   8  8.5  6.3 Michigan                
 14 17   8  8.2  6.6 Mississippi State       
 15 53   8  8.5  6.3 Florida                 
 16 10   8  8.8  6.0 Texas A&M               
 17 12   8  8.5  6.3 Wisconsin               
 18 17   8  8.2  6.6 Iowa                    
 19 16   8  8.7  6.0 Texas                   
 20 15   8  9.3  5.3 Oklahoma State          
 21 42   8  8.9  5.7 West Virginia           
 22 47   8  9.1  5.5 Utah State              
 23 25   7  8.7  5.8 Washington State        
 24 65   7  8.2  6.3 Miami - Florida         
 25 13   7  8.7  5.8 Oregon                  
 26 21   7  8.1  6.3 Utah                    
 27 52   6  8.2  6.1 Stanford                
 28 29   6  8.3  5.9 Appalachian State       
 29 14   6  8.1  6.1 Kansas State            
 30 85   6  8.0  6.2 Fresno State            
 31 29   6  8.0  6.2 Kentucky                
 32 24   6  8.2  6.0 Boise State             
 33 36   6  8.2  5.9 Duke                    
 34 30   5  7.6  6.4 Texas Christian         
 35 73   5  7.9  6.2 Iowa State              
 36 51   5  8.2  5.8 North Carolina State    
 37 30   5  8.5  5.5 Maryland                
 38 42   5  8.3  5.7 South Carolina          
 39 40   5  8.3  5.7 Southern California     
 40 39   5  8.0  6.0 Virginia                
 41 22   5  8.6  5.3 Memphis                 
 42 33   5  7.1  6.7 Michigan State          
 43 42   5  7.8  6.1 Pittsburgh              
 44 41   5  7.8  6.1 Northwestern            
 45 36   5  8.6  5.3 Baylor                  
 46 22   5  8.3  5.5 Texas Tech              
 47 73   4  7.5  6.3 Army                    
 48 40   4  8.4  5.3 Wake Forest             
 49 67   4  8.4  5.4 Ohio                    
 50 61   4  8.4  5.4 Syracuse                
 51 63   4  8.1  5.5 Temple                  
 52 41   4  8.4  5.2 Nebraska                
 53 44   4  8.4  5.3 Mississippi             
 54 66   4  8.0  5.6 Minnesota               
 55 76   4  7.8  5.8 Arizona State           
 56 44   4  8.1  5.5 Boston College          
 57 59   4  8.5  5.1 Arizona                 
 58 76   4  8.3  5.3 Purdue                  
 59 39   4  8.7  4.9 Houston                 
 60 72   4  7.9  5.6 Vanderbilt              
 61 75   4  8.0  5.5 Georgia Tech            
 62 16   3  7.3  6.2 California              
 63 29   3  7.6  5.9 Brigham Young           
 64 50   3  8.7  4.8 Toledo                  
 65 17   3  8.1  5.4 Virginia Tech           
 66 49   3  8.1  5.4 Air Force               
 67 69   3  7.4  6.0 Cincinnati              
 68 41   3  7.9  5.5 Indiana                 
 69 31   3  7.9  5.5 Colorado                
 70 34   3  8.2  5.2 Florida State           
 71 34   3  7.9  5.4 North Carolina          
 72 53   2  7.5  5.8 Tulane                  
 73 63   2  7.8  5.4 Troy State              
 74 45   2  7.7  5.4 Navy                    
 75 33   2  7.7  5.5 Tennessee               
 76 65   2  8.1  5.0 Florida Atlantic        
 77 40   2  7.5  5.6 Marshall                
 78 51   2  7.7  5.4 Kansas                  
 79 53   2  7.6  5.4 Alabama - Birmingham    
 80 28   2  6.9  6.2 San Diego State         
 81 54   2  8.3  4.7 Southern Methodist      
 82 61   2  7.8  5.2 California - Los Angeles
 83 71   2  7.7  5.3 Eastern Michigan        
 84 49   2  7.0  6.0 Wyoming                 
 85 48   2  8.3  4.7 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 86 74   2  8.4  4.6 Hawaii                  
 87 48   1  7.7  5.2 Arkansas State          
 88 50   1  7.9  5.0 Middle Tennessee State  
 89 59   1  7.9  5.0 North Texas             
 90 40   1  8.3  4.6 Western Michigan        
 91 50   1  7.6  5.2 Georgia Southern        
 92 49   1  7.5  5.3 Southern Mississippi    
 93 61   1  7.7  5.1 Miami - Ohio            
 94 42   1  7.6  5.2 Arkansas                
 95 51   1  8.0  4.8 Louisville              
 96 59   1  7.8  4.9 Buffalo                 
 97 63   0  7.0  5.6 Northern Illinois       
 98 35   0  7.2  5.4 Louisiana Tech          
 99 60   0  7.4  5.1 South Florida           
100 66   0  7.6  5.0 Florida International   
101 59   0  7.8  4.7 Illinois                
102 45   0  8.1  4.3 Oregon State            
103 62   0  7.6  4.8 Nevada - Reno           
104 52   0  7.2  5.1 Tulsa                   
105 72   0  7.5  4.9 North Carolina - Charlot
106 39   0  7.2  5.1 Coastal Carolina        
107 44   0  7.7  4.6 Northeast Louisiana     
108 40  -1  7.9  4.2 Colorado State          
109 50  -1  7.7  4.4 Nevada - Las Vegas      
110 35  -1  7.3  4.7 Liberty                 
111 44  -1  6.7  5.3 Rutgers                 
112 39  -1  7.5  4.4 Old Dominion            
113 40  -1  7.0  5.0 Western Kentucky        
114 46  -1  7.5  4.5 Ball State              
115 51  -2  7.4  4.4 New Mexico              
116 35  -2  7.2  4.6 East Carolina           
117 33  -2  7.3  4.5 Georgia State           
118 42  -2  6.9  4.9 Central Michigan        
119 34  -3  7.0  4.5 South Alabama           
120 46  -3  7.1  4.5 San Jose State          
121 51  -3  7.0  4.6 Kent State              
122 34  -3  6.6  4.9 Texas - San Antonio     
123 30  -3  7.7  3.6 Massachusetts           
124 34  -3  6.6  4.8 Akron                   
125 36  -4  6.8  4.5 Rice                    
126 39  -4  6.6  4.7 Texas State - San Marcos
127 35  -4  7.2  3.9 New Mexico State        
128 30  -4  6.9  4.2 Bowling Green           
129 31  -5  6.7  4.3 Connecticut             
130 27  -5  6.3  4.5 Texas - El Paso         

FCS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  7   9  8.6  6.6 North Dakota State      
  2 16   8  9.0  5.6 Princeton               
  3 19   7  8.4  6.2 James Madison           
  4 23   7  8.4  6.0 South Dakota State      
  5 53   6  8.9  5.3 Eastern Washington      
  6 29   5  8.1  5.7 Kennesaw State          
  7 32   5  7.8  6.0 Dartmouth               
  8 61   3  7.3  6.0 Northern Iowa           
  9 53   3  7.8  5.5 Youngstown State        
 10 29   3  8.2  5.1 California - Davis      
 11 39   3  8.1  5.2 Towson                  
 12 36   2  7.3  5.9 Illinois State          
 13 40   2  8.1  5.0 Jacksonville State      
 14 42   2  7.7  5.4 Harvard                 
 15 41   2  7.3  5.8 Weber State             
 16 41   2  8.0  5.0 Yale                    
 17 36   2  7.5  5.5 Maine                   
 18 33   1  7.5  5.5 Elon                    
 19 77   1  7.5  5.5 Villanova               
 20 51   1  7.8  5.2 Furman                  
 21 44   1  7.0  6.0 Stony Brook             
 22 36   1  7.4  5.5 Delaware                
 23 64   1  7.8  5.0 Montana                 
 24 46   1  7.3  5.4 Montana State           
 25 46   0  7.1  5.6 North Carolina A&T      
 26 55   0  6.8  5.9 New Hampshire           
 27 23   0  7.8  4.8 Southeast Missouri State
 28 53   0  7.8  4.7 Rhode Island            
 29 56   0  7.1  5.4 Wofford                 
 30 34   0  7.8  4.7 Southern Illinois       
 31 51   0  7.1  5.4 North Dakota            
 32 34   0  7.5  5.0 The Citadel             
 33 48   0  7.1  5.4 Western Illinois        
 34 56   0  7.6  4.8 Mercer                  
 35 19   0  7.5  4.8 Indiana State           
 36 51   0  7.7  4.6 Austin Peay             
 37 59   0  7.0  5.3 Pennsylvania            
 38 44   0  7.2  5.0 Nicholls State          
 39 55   0  7.6  4.6 Richmond                
 40 61   0  7.1  5.1 Central Arkansas        
 41 65   0  7.7  4.4 San Diego               
 42 34   0  8.0  4.2 Idaho State             
 43 59   0  7.1  5.0 Columbia                
 44 49  -1  7.6  4.5 California Poly         
 45 42  -1  7.7  4.4 South Dakota            
 46 43  -1  7.1  5.0 Holy Cross              
 47 43  -1  7.0  5.0 Albany                  
 48 67  -1  7.1  5.0 Duquesne                
 49 29  -1  7.4  4.6 Northern Arizona        
 50 73  -1  7.3  4.7 Central Connecticut     
 51 38  -1  7.7  4.2 Monmouth                
 52 35  -1  7.1  4.9 Alcorn State            
 53 74  -1  7.8  4.1 Samford                 
 54 75  -1  7.2  4.7 Dayton                  
 55 65  -1  7.4  4.4 Sam Houston State       
 56 54  -1  6.5  5.4 William & Mary          
 57 60  -1  7.1  4.8 Cornell                 
 58 55  -2  7.3  4.6 Sacred Heart            
 59 27  -2  7.5  4.3 Prairie View            
 60 37  -2  6.9  5.0 Tennessee - Martin      
 61 56  -2  6.5  5.4 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 62 32  -2  7.1  4.6 Southern                
 63 38  -2  6.8  4.9 East Tennessee State    
 64 28  -2  7.0  4.6 Missouri State          
 65 49  -2  7.2  4.4 Tennessee State         
 66 37  -2  7.1  4.5 Idaho                   
 67 54  -3  7.2  4.4 Southern Utah           
 68 61  -3  7.1  4.4 Sacramento State        
 69 49  -3  7.1  4.5 Bethune - Cookman       
 70 24  -3  7.6  3.8 Western Carolina        
 71 35  -3  7.0  4.5 Portland State          
 72 61  -3  7.7  3.7 Incarnate Word          
 73 63  -3  7.1  4.4 Southeast Louisiana     
 74 77  -3  6.3  5.2 Drake                   
 75 34  -3  6.6  4.9 Charleston Southern     
 76 69  -3  6.9  4.5 Abilene Christian       
 77 21  -3  6.9  4.5 Florida A&M             
 78 59  -3  6.0  5.5 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 79 42  -3  6.5  4.9 Eastern Kentucky        
 80 67  -3  6.3  5.1 McNeese State           
 81 94  -3  6.3  5.0 Campbell                
 82 36  -4  6.2  5.2 South Carolina State    
 83 27  -4  6.9  4.3 Murray State            
 84 25  -4  6.8  4.4 Eastern Illinois        
 85 33  -4  6.5  4.7 Grambling               
 86 79  -4  6.4  4.7 Fordham                 
 87 30  -5  6.8  4.2 Lehigh                  
 88 16  -5  7.3  3.6 Howard                  
 89 42  -5  6.5  4.5 Lamar                   
 90 39  -5  6.9  4.0 Northwestern State      
 91 39  -5  6.3  4.6 Alabama A&M             
 92 23  -5  6.8  4.0 Wagner                  
 93 **  -5  7.1  3.6 North Alabama           
 94 34  -5  7.1  3.7 Bryant                  
 95 82  -5  6.4  4.4 Brown                   
 96 37  -5  5.8  5.1 Georgetown              
 97 24  -5  6.7  4.1 Northern Colorado       
 98 98  -6  6.7  4.0 Stetson                 
 99 70  -6  6.9  3.7 Tennessee Tech          
100 74  -6  6.8  3.9 Hampton                 
101 18  -6  6.4  4.4 Morgan State            
102 59  -6  6.1  4.6 Lafayette               
103 25  -6  6.3  4.3 Marist                  
104 77  -6  6.0  4.6 Colgate                 
105 18  -6  6.0  4.6 North Carolina Central  
106 75  -7  6.9  3.5 Davidson                
107 23  -6  6.3  4.3 Gardner - Webb          
108 **  -7  8.1  2.1 Merrimack               
109 14  -6  5.9  4.7 Norfolk State           
110 57  -6  5.8  4.8 Jackson State           
111 **  -7  8.0  2.2 Long Island             
112 19  -7  6.8  3.5 Virginia Military       
113 35  -7  6.6  3.8 Robert Morris           
114 45  -7  6.3  4.1 Stephen F. Austin       
115 64  -7  6.3  4.1 Butler                  
116 26  -7  5.7  4.7 Bucknell                
117 75  -8  6.3  3.9 Delaware State          
118 34  -8  6.4  3.8 Valparaiso              
119 70  -8  6.5  3.6 Jacksonville            
120 29  -8  5.8  4.3 Alabama State           
121 30  -9  6.7  3.1 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
122 20  -8  5.6  4.3 Presbyterian            
123 59  -9  6.7  3.0 Morehead State          
124 23  -9  6.0  3.7 Texas Southern          
125 40 -10  6.2  3.3 Mississippi Valley State
126 31 -11  6.4  2.8 Houston Baptist         

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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