6 Jan 2020: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2019 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

FBS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  3  15 10.0  6.7 Ohio State              
  2  4  14  9.2  7.3 Clemson                 
  3  4  13  9.5  6.6 Alabama                 
  4  5  13  9.8  6.3 Louisiana State         
  5  5  10  8.5  7.1 Georgia                 
  6  8  10  8.7  6.7 Wisconsin               
  7 11  10  8.7  6.6 Florida                 
  8 11  10  8.8  6.5 Michigan                
  9  9  10  8.7  6.6 Penn State              
 10 10  10  9.6  5.7 Oklahoma                
 11  8  10  8.9  6.4 Oregon                  
 12  8   9  8.6  6.7 Auburn                  
 13  9   9  8.6  6.5 Notre Dame              
 14 10   9  8.3  6.7 Utah                    
 15 16   8  8.0  6.9 Iowa                    
 16 10   8  8.3  6.6 Washington              
 17 18   8  9.2  5.5 Central Florida         
 18 21   8  8.9  5.9 Texas                   
 19 34   8  8.8  5.9 Minnesota               
 20 24   7  8.5  6.0 Iowa State              
 21 14   7  8.4  6.0 Baylor                  
 22 25   7  8.4  6.1 Texas A&M               
 23 35   7  9.1  5.3 Memphis                 
 24 37   6  8.9  5.4 Southern California     
 25 37   6  7.9  6.4 Kentucky                
 26 17   6  8.3  6.0 Appalachian State       
 27 23   6  8.0  6.2 Kansas State            
 28 35   6  8.9  5.3 Washington State        
 29 21   6  8.6  5.6 North Carolina          
 30 24   6  8.5  5.6 Oklahoma State          
 31 42   6  8.4  5.7 Virginia                
 32 40   5  7.9  6.2 Cincinnati              
 33 39   5  8.4  5.7 Virginia Tech           
 34 37   5  8.0  6.0 Texas Christian         
 35 51   5  8.4  5.7 Navy                    
 36 47   5  8.0  6.1 Missouri                
 37 19   5  8.2  5.8 Boise State             
 38 49   5  8.3  5.6 Indiana                 
 39 45   5  8.0  5.9 Air Force               
 40 38   5  8.0  5.8 Mississippi State       
 41 61   5  8.3  5.5 Florida Atlantic        
 42 67   5  8.3  5.5 Nebraska                
 43 48   4  7.8  6.0 Arizona State           
 44 63   4  8.2  5.6 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 45 56   4  7.3  6.4 Michigan State          
 46 76   4  9.1  4.7 Southern Methodist      
 47 40   4  8.0  5.8 Mississippi             
 48 50   4  8.4  5.3 Wake Forest             
 49 33   4  7.8  5.9 Tennessee               
 50 57   4  7.7  6.0 South Carolina          
 51 70   4  8.1  5.6 Tulane                  
 52 44   4  7.4  6.2 California              
 53 58   4  8.4  5.3 Texas Tech              
 54 70   4  7.9  5.7 West Virginia           
 55 45   4  7.9  5.7 Duke                    
 56 39   4  8.0  5.6 Florida State           
 57 34   3  7.5  6.1 Pittsburgh              
 58 81   3  8.2  5.3 Purdue                  
 59 18   3  7.3  6.2 Miami - Florida         
 60 67   3  7.8  5.7 Stanford                
 61 56   3  8.2  5.3 Boston College          
 62 77   3  8.4  4.9 Oregon State            
 63 47   3  8.1  5.3 Syracuse                
 64 53   3  7.8  5.6 Buffalo                 
 65 47   3  8.2  5.1 Houston                 
 66 35   3  8.6  4.7 Louisville              
 67 25   2  7.6  5.6 Brigham Young           
 68 39   2  8.2  5.1 Ohio                    
 69 67   2  8.1  5.1 California - Los Angeles
 70 57   2  7.6  5.6 Temple                  
 71 31   2  6.7  6.5 San Diego State         
 72 82   2  8.0  5.2 Illinois                
 73 47   2  7.1  6.1 Wyoming                 
 74 60   2  7.6  5.5 Colorado                
 75 45   2  7.8  5.4 Fresno State            
 76 63   2  8.0  5.1 Arizona                 
 77 56   2  8.5  4.6 Hawaii                  
 78 31   2  7.7  5.4 Louisiana Tech          
 79 45   2  8.0  5.0 Utah State              
 80 35   2  7.3  5.8 Army                    
 81 47   2  7.3  5.7 Western Kentucky        
 82 64   2  7.8  5.2 Tulsa                   
 83 37   2  8.0  5.0 Western Michigan        
 84 60   1  6.8  6.2 Northwestern            
 85 30   1  7.5  5.4 Georgia Southern        
 86 52   1  7.6  5.4 Southern Mississippi    
 87 81   1  7.8  5.1 Maryland                
 88 55   1  7.5  5.4 North Carolina State    
 89 45   1  7.4  5.5 Marshall                
 90 66   1  7.7  5.1 Kansas                  
 91 61   1  7.8  5.0 Middle Tennessee State  
 92 62   1  8.0  4.8 Ball State              
 93 41   0  8.0  4.7 Arkansas State          
 94 55   0  7.3  5.4 Georgia Tech            
 95 37   0  8.0  4.7 Troy State              
 96 51   0  7.7  4.9 Eastern Michigan        
 97 48   0  7.1  5.5 Alabama - Birmingham    
 98 60   0  7.3  5.3 Miami - Ohio            
 99 31   0  7.7  4.9 Liberty                 
100 54   0  7.2  5.4 South Florida           
101 63   0  7.2  5.3 Vanderbilt              
102 51   0  7.6  4.9 Central Michigan        
103 59   0  7.6  4.9 Arkansas                
104 60   0  7.7  4.8 Kent State              
105 54   0  7.8  4.7 Colorado State          
106 43   0  7.8  4.6 Toledo                  
107 37   0  7.4  5.0 Florida International   
108 49   0  7.8  4.6 North Texas             
109 59   0  7.7  4.6 San Jose State          
110 41   0  7.1  5.3 Northern Illinois       
111 51   0  7.5  4.8 North Carolina - Charlot
112 57   0  8.1  4.2 Northeast Louisiana     
113 37   0  7.4  4.8 Coastal Carolina        
114 43  -1  7.7  4.4 Georgia State           
115 47  -1  7.6  4.5 East Carolina           
116 55  -1  7.4  4.6 Nevada - Las Vegas      
117 46  -1  7.2  4.8 Nevada - Reno           
118 61  -1  6.9  5.1 Rutgers                 
119 44  -2  6.6  5.2 Rice                    
120 40  -2  7.2  4.5 New Mexico              
121 43  -3  7.0  4.6 Texas - San Antonio     
122 37  -3  6.6  4.9 South Alabama           
123 28  -3  6.7  4.8 Old Dominion            
124 35  -3  6.6  4.8 Texas State - San Marcos
125 34  -4  7.3  4.0 New Mexico State        
126 28  -5  6.9  4.2 Connecticut             
127 22  -6  6.5  4.2 Texas - El Paso         
128 19  -6  6.6  4.1 Bowling Green           
129 10  -8  7.3  2.7 Massachusetts           
130 10  -8  5.6  4.6 Akron                   

FCS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1 11   9  8.8  6.2 James Madison           
  2 19   7  8.2  6.5 North Dakota State      
  3 25   4  8.3  5.4 Montana                 
  4 46   4  7.4  6.3 Dartmouth               
  5 40   4  7.9  5.7 Princeton               
  6 46   4  7.7  5.9 South Dakota State      
  7 31   3  7.8  5.7 Montana State           
  8 30   3  8.7  4.7 Eastern Washington      
  9 36   3  8.3  5.1 Yale                    
 10 28   3  7.9  5.5 Towson                  
 11 47   3  7.9  5.4 Kennesaw State          
 12 30   3  7.5  5.9 Weber State             
 13 47   2  7.9  5.4 Austin Peay             
 14 45   3  8.2  5.1 Villanova               
 15 45   2  7.9  5.3 North Carolina A&T      
 16 49   2  7.6  5.6 Wofford                 
 17 28   2  7.9  5.1 California - Davis      
 18 46   2  7.7  5.3 Sacramento State        
 19 63   1  6.7  6.2 Northern Iowa           
 20 54   1  7.4  5.5 Furman                  
 21 44   1  7.6  5.3 Albany                  
 22 37   1  7.7  5.1 Maine                   
 23 64   1  7.4  5.4 Harvard                 
 24 28   1  7.3  5.5 Elon                    
 25 51   1  8.1  4.7 Monmouth                
 26 54   1  6.7  6.0 New Hampshire           
 27 76   0  7.7  5.0 San Diego               
 28 74   0  6.7  6.0 Illinois State          
 29 54   0  7.4  5.2 Southern Illinois       
 30 68   0  7.5  5.1 Central Connecticut     
 31 69   0  7.6  4.9 Youngstown State        
 32 53   0  7.0  5.5 Stony Brook             
 33 38   0  7.2  5.3 William & Mary          
 34 36   0  7.3  5.0 Southeast Missouri State
 35 54   0  7.1  5.3 Richmond                
 36 52   0  7.7  4.6 South Dakota            
 37 55   0  7.2  5.2 Delaware                
 38 67   0  7.7  4.5 Southeast Louisiana     
 39 40   0  7.1  5.2 Holy Cross              
 40 63   0  7.2  5.1 Jacksonville State      
 41 45   0  7.3  5.0 The Citadel             
 42 43   0  7.0  5.2 Tennessee - Martin      
 43 43   0  7.1  5.1 North Dakota            
 44 58   0  7.3  4.8 Alcorn State            
 45 57  -1  7.1  5.1 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 46 66  -1  7.1  5.0 Nicholls State          
 47 49  -1  7.0  5.1 Eastern Kentucky        
 48 26  -1  8.1  4.0 Northern Arizona        
 49 33  -1  7.5  4.6 Rhode Island            
 50 58  -1  7.0  5.0 Pennsylvania            
 51 54  -1  7.5  4.6 Prairie View            
 52 38  -1  7.2  4.8 Idaho                   
 53 47  -1  7.8  4.1 Samford                 
 54 60  -1  6.6  5.3 South Carolina State    
 55 80  -2  7.9  3.9 Dayton                  
 56 38  -2  7.3  4.6 California Poly         
 57 48  -1  6.8  5.1 Indiana State           
 58 96  -1  6.8  5.1 Sam Houston State       
 59 89  -2  7.0  4.9 Central Arkansas        
 60 34  -2  7.3  4.5 Portland State          
 61 52  -2  6.6  5.3 Cornell                 
 62 70  -2  6.9  5.0 Grambling               
 63 61  -2  6.9  4.9 Sacred Heart            
 64 53  -2  7.1  4.6 Florida A&M             
 65 61  -2  6.9  4.8 Southern                
 66 62  -2  6.7  5.1 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 67 73  -2  6.6  5.1 McNeese State           
 68 44  -3  7.2  4.4 Southern Utah           
 69 47  -2  6.6  5.1 Columbia                
 70 50  -3  7.2  4.4 Mercer                  
 71 69  -3  6.7  4.9 Duquesne                
 72 41  -3  6.5  5.1 East Tennessee State    
 73 21  -3  7.2  4.3 Idaho State             
 74 17  -3  7.4  4.1 Brown                   
 75 43  -3  6.6  4.9 Charleston Southern     
 76 23  -3  6.6  4.9 Murray State            
 77 79  -3  6.4  5.0 Drake                   
 78 87  -3  7.1  4.2 Davidson                
 79 51  -3  6.7  4.7 Bethune - Cookman       
 80 60  -3  6.3  5.1 Colgate                 
 81 33  -3  7.0  4.4 Fordham                 
 82 32  -3  6.1  5.4 Georgetown              
 83 41  -4  6.8  4.5 Norfolk State           
 84 58  -4  6.8  4.5 Western Illinois        
 85 48  -4  6.7  4.6 Campbell                
 86 16  -4  7.1  4.0 Tennessee Tech          
 87 75  -4  6.6  4.6 Abilene Christian       
 88 28  -4  7.0  4.1 Tennessee State         
 89 40  -4  6.7  4.5 Missouri State          
 90 57  -4  6.7  4.5 Robert Morris           
 91 27  -4  6.3  4.9 Lehigh                  
 92 22  -4  6.3  4.9 Lafayette               
 93 85  -4  7.1  4.0 North Alabama           
 94 49  -5  7.1  3.9 Northwestern State      
 95 53  -5  7.2  3.8 Incarnate Word          
 96 26  -5  6.5  4.5 Northern Colorado       
 97 29  -5  7.2  3.7 Virginia Military       
 98 19  -5  6.3  4.7 Eastern Illinois        
 99 35  -5  6.7  4.3 Hampton                 
100 42  -5  6.8  4.1 Alabama A&M             
101 21  -5  6.8  4.1 Western Carolina        
102 14  -5  6.3  4.6 Bucknell                
103 42  -5  6.4  4.4 Bryant                  
104 40  -6  6.6  4.2 Stephen F. Austin       
105 53  -6  6.6  4.1 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
106 28  -6  6.2  4.5 Morgan State            
107 38  -6  6.1  4.7 Alabama State           
108 22  -6  6.6  4.1 Gardner - Webb          
109 22  -6  5.9  4.8 Wagner                  
110 **  -7  8.2  2.1 Merrimack               
111 33  -6  6.4  4.1 Jackson State           
112 67  -6  6.2  4.4 Stetson                 
113 39  -7  6.4  4.1 Marist                  
114 37  -7  6.5  3.7 Jacksonville            
115 26  -7  5.7  4.7 North Carolina Central  
116 40  -7  6.0  4.3 Lamar                   
117 **  -8  6.1  4.0 Long Island             
118 29  -8  6.1  4.0 Butler                  
119  9  -8  6.0  4.0 Delaware State          
120 39  -8  6.5  3.4 Morehead State          
121 42  -8  5.9  4.1 Valparaiso              
122 11  -9  6.5  3.3 Howard                  
123  8 -10  5.4  4.3 Presbyterian            
124  8 -11  6.3  3.0 Texas Southern          
125  9 -11  6.4  2.7 Houston Baptist         
126  9 -10  5.3  4.1 Mississippi Valley State

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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