18 Jan 2020: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2019 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

FBS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  3  15 10.0  6.7 Ohio State              
  2  4  14  9.2  7.3 Clemson                 
  3  4  13  9.9  6.4 Louisiana State         
  4  5  13  9.6  6.6 Alabama                 
  5  5  11  8.5  7.1 Georgia                 
  6  8  10  8.7  6.7 Wisconsin               
  7 11  10  8.8  6.5 Michigan                
  8 10  10  8.7  6.6 Penn State              
  9 10  10  8.7  6.6 Florida                 
 10 11  10  9.6  5.8 Oklahoma                
 11  8  10  8.9  6.4 Oregon                  
 12  8   9  8.6  6.7 Auburn                  
 13  9   9  8.6  6.5 Notre Dame              
 14 11   9  8.2  6.7 Utah                    
 15 16   8  8.0  6.9 Iowa                    
 16 10   8  8.3  6.6 Washington              
 17 18   8  9.3  5.5 Central Florida         
 18 20   8  8.9  5.9 Texas                   
 19 34   8  8.8  5.9 Minnesota               
 20 15   7  8.5  6.0 Baylor                  
 21 24   7  8.5  6.0 Iowa State              
 22 26   7  8.4  6.1 Texas A&M               
 23 35   7  9.2  5.3 Memphis                 
 24 37   6  8.9  5.4 Southern California     
 25 37   6  7.9  6.3 Kentucky                
 26 17   6  8.3  6.0 Appalachian State       
 27 23   6  8.0  6.2 Kansas State            
 28 36   6  8.9  5.3 Washington State        
 29 21   6  8.6  5.6 North Carolina          
 30 25   6  8.5  5.6 Oklahoma State          
 31 43   6  8.5  5.7 Virginia                
 32 40   5  7.9  6.2 Cincinnati              
 33 39   5  8.4  5.7 Virginia Tech           
 34 52   5  8.4  5.7 Navy                    
 35 38   5  8.0  6.0 Texas Christian         
 36 47   5  8.0  6.1 Missouri                
 37 19   5  8.1  5.8 Boise State             
 38 46   5  8.0  5.9 Air Force               
 39 47   5  8.3  5.6 Indiana                 
 40 38   5  8.0  5.8 Mississippi State       
 41 60   5  8.3  5.5 Florida Atlantic        
 42 66   5  8.3  5.5 Nebraska                
 43 48   4  7.8  6.0 Arizona State           
 44 63   4  8.2  5.6 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 45 77   5  9.1  4.7 Southern Methodist      
 46 41   4  8.0  5.8 Mississippi             
 47 54   4  7.3  6.4 Michigan State          
 48 34   4  7.8  5.9 Tennessee               
 49 51   4  8.4  5.3 Wake Forest             
 50 71   4  8.1  5.6 Tulane                  
 51 57   4  7.7  6.0 South Carolina          
 52 59   4  8.4  5.3 Texas Tech              
 53 44   4  7.4  6.3 California              
 54 71   4  7.9  5.7 West Virginia           
 55 42   4  8.0  5.6 Florida State           
 56 43   4  7.9  5.6 Duke                    
 57 81   4  8.2  5.3 Purdue                  
 58 33   3  7.5  6.1 Pittsburgh              
 59 18   3  7.3  6.2 Miami - Florida         
 60 67   3  7.8  5.7 Stanford                
 61 56   3  8.2  5.3 Boston College          
 62 77   3  8.4  4.9 Oregon State            
 63 49   3  8.2  5.1 Houston                 
 64 54   3  7.8  5.6 Buffalo                 
 65 47   3  8.1  5.3 Syracuse                
 66 36   3  8.6  4.7 Louisville              
 67 40   3  8.2  5.1 Ohio                    
 68 20   2  7.6  5.6 Brigham Young           
 69 33   2  6.7  6.6 San Diego State         
 70 56   2  7.6  5.6 Temple                  
 71 64   2  8.1  5.1 California - Los Angeles
 72 82   2  8.0  5.1 Illinois                
 73 61   2  7.6  5.5 Colorado                
 74 46   2  7.0  6.1 Wyoming                 
 75 58   2  8.5  4.6 Hawaii                  
 76 32   2  7.7  5.4 Louisiana Tech          
 77 46   2  8.1  5.0 Utah State              
 78 43   2  7.7  5.4 Fresno State            
 79 60   2  8.0  5.1 Arizona                 
 80 47   2  7.3  5.8 Western Kentucky        
 81 35   2  7.3  5.8 Army                    
 82 62   2  6.8  6.2 Northwestern            
 83 62   2  7.8  5.2 Tulsa                   
 84 37   2  8.0  5.0 Western Michigan        
 85 29   1  7.5  5.4 Georgia Southern        
 86 52   1  7.6  5.4 Southern Mississippi    
 87 82   1  7.8  5.1 Maryland                
 88 56   1  7.5  5.4 North Carolina State    
 89 43   1  7.4  5.5 Marshall                
 90 67   1  7.8  5.1 Kansas                  
 91 60   1  7.8  5.0 Middle Tennessee State  
 92 62   1  7.9  4.8 Ball State              
 93 42   1  8.0  4.7 Arkansas State          
 94 36   0  8.0  4.6 Troy State              
 95 55   0  7.3  5.4 Georgia Tech            
 96 50   0  7.7  4.9 Eastern Michigan        
 97 33   0  7.7  4.9 Liberty                 
 98 48   0  7.1  5.5 Alabama - Birmingham    
 99 58   0  7.3  5.3 Miami - Ohio            
100 53   0  7.2  5.4 South Florida           
101 62   0  7.2  5.3 Vanderbilt              
102 51   0  7.6  4.9 Central Michigan        
103 61   0  7.7  4.8 Kent State              
104 58   0  7.6  4.9 Arkansas                
105 54   0  7.8  4.7 Colorado State          
106 43   0  7.8  4.6 Toledo                  
107 37   0  7.4  5.0 Florida International   
108 61   0  7.7  4.6 San Jose State          
109 47   0  7.8  4.5 North Texas             
110 42   0  7.1  5.3 Northern Illinois       
111 58   0  8.1  4.2 Northeast Louisiana     
112 51   0  7.5  4.8 North Carolina - Charlot
113 37   0  7.4  4.8 Coastal Carolina        
114 43  -1  7.7  4.4 Georgia State           
115 47  -1  7.6  4.5 East Carolina           
116 55  -1  7.4  4.6 Nevada - Las Vegas      
117 46  -1  7.2  4.8 Nevada - Reno           
118 61  -1  6.9  5.2 Rutgers                 
119 44  -2  6.6  5.2 Rice                    
120 39  -2  7.1  4.5 New Mexico              
121 43  -3  7.0  4.6 Texas - San Antonio     
122 37  -3  6.6  4.9 South Alabama           
123 30  -3  6.7  4.8 Old Dominion            
124 34  -3  6.6  4.8 Texas State - San Marcos
125 34  -4  7.3  3.9 New Mexico State        
126 28  -5  6.9  4.2 Connecticut             
127 22  -6  6.5  4.2 Texas - El Paso         
128 17  -6  6.6  4.1 Bowling Green           
129 10  -8  7.3  2.7 Massachusetts           
130 10  -8  5.6  4.6 Akron                   

FCS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1 14   8  8.7  6.2 James Madison           
  2 17   8  8.2  6.5 North Dakota State      
  3 25   4  8.3  5.4 Montana                 
  4 46   4  7.4  6.3 Dartmouth               
  5 40   4  7.9  5.7 Princeton               
  6 45   4  7.7  5.9 South Dakota State      
  7 30   3  7.8  5.7 Montana State           
  8 36   3  8.3  5.1 Yale                    
  9 30   3  8.7  4.7 Eastern Washington      
 10 29   3  7.5  5.9 Weber State             
 11 29   3  7.8  5.5 Towson                  
 12 49   3  7.9  5.4 Kennesaw State          
 13 47   2  7.9  5.4 Austin Peay             
 14 46   2  8.2  5.0 Villanova               
 15 45   2  7.9  5.3 North Carolina A&T      
 16 49   2  7.6  5.6 Wofford                 
 17 28   2  7.9  5.1 California - Davis      
 18 46   2  7.7  5.3 Sacramento State        
 19 63   1  6.8  6.3 Northern Iowa           
 20 43   1  7.6  5.3 Albany                  
 21 54   1  7.4  5.5 Furman                  
 22 37   1  7.8  5.1 Maine                   
 23 28   1  7.3  5.5 Elon                    
 24 66   1  7.4  5.4 Harvard                 
 25 51   1  8.1  4.7 Monmouth                
 26 74   0  7.7  5.0 San Diego               
 27 56   0  6.7  6.0 New Hampshire           
 28 74   0  6.7  6.0 Illinois State          
 29 53   0  7.4  5.2 Southern Illinois       
 30 65   0  7.6  4.9 Youngstown State        
 31 69   0  7.5  5.1 Central Connecticut     
 32 54   0  7.0  5.5 Stony Brook             
 33 41   0  7.2  5.3 William & Mary          
 34 36   0  7.3  5.0 Southeast Missouri State
 35 53   0  7.1  5.3 Richmond                
 36 55   0  7.2  5.1 Delaware                
 37 53   0  7.7  4.6 South Dakota            
 38 67   0  7.7  4.5 Southeast Louisiana     
 39 41   0  7.1  5.2 Tennessee - Martin      
 40 41   0  7.1  5.2 Holy Cross              
 41 55   0  7.4  4.8 Alcorn State            
 42 65   0  7.1  5.1 Jacksonville State      
 43 43   0  7.1  5.1 North Dakota            
 44 64   0  7.2  5.0 Nicholls State          
 45 49   0  7.2  5.0 The Citadel             
 46 58   0  7.1  5.1 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 47 49  -1  7.0  5.1 Eastern Kentucky        
 48 57  -1  7.0  5.0 Pennsylvania            
 49 26  -1  8.0  4.0 Northern Arizona        
 50 54  -1  7.4  4.6 Prairie View            
 51 34  -1  7.5  4.5 Rhode Island            
 52 38  -1  7.2  4.8 Idaho                   
 53 47  -1  7.8  4.1 Samford                 
 54 60  -1  6.6  5.3 South Carolina State    
 55 79  -2  7.9  3.9 Dayton                  
 56 47  -1  6.8  5.2 Indiana State           
 57 38  -2  7.3  4.6 California Poly         
 58 87  -2  7.0  4.9 Central Arkansas        
 59 97  -2  6.8  5.1 Sam Houston State       
 60 34  -2  7.3  4.5 Portland State          
 61 52  -2  6.6  5.3 Cornell                 
 62 70  -2  6.9  5.0 Grambling               
 63 61  -2  6.9  4.9 Sacred Heart            
 64 53  -2  7.1  4.6 Florida A&M             
 65 61  -2  6.7  5.1 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 66 62  -2  6.9  4.8 Southern                
 67 44  -2  7.2  4.4 Southern Utah           
 68 74  -2  6.6  5.1 McNeese State           
 69 47  -2  6.6  5.0 Columbia                
 70 51  -3  7.2  4.4 Mercer                  
 71 39  -3  6.5  5.1 East Tennessee State    
 72 70  -3  6.7  4.9 Duquesne                
 73 21  -3  7.2  4.3 Idaho State             
 74 17  -3  7.4  4.0 Brown                   
 75 58  -3  6.4  5.1 Colgate                 
 76 23  -3  6.6  4.9 Murray State            
 77 45  -3  6.6  4.9 Charleston Southern     
 78 80  -3  6.5  5.0 Drake                   
 79 88  -3  7.1  4.2 Davidson                
 80 52  -3  6.7  4.7 Bethune - Cookman       
 81 32  -3  7.0  4.4 Fordham                 
 82 32  -3  6.1  5.3 Georgetown              
 83 47  -4  6.7  4.6 Campbell                
 84 58  -4  6.8  4.5 Western Illinois        
 85 42  -4  6.8  4.4 Norfolk State           
 86 16  -4  7.2  4.0 Tennessee Tech          
 87 75  -4  6.6  4.7 Abilene Christian       
 88 40  -4  6.7  4.5 Missouri State          
 89 29  -4  7.0  4.1 Tennessee State         
 90 57  -4  6.7  4.5 Robert Morris           
 91 27  -4  6.3  4.9 Lehigh                  
 92 22  -4  6.3  4.9 Lafayette               
 93 85  -4  7.0  4.0 North Alabama           
 94 52  -5  7.2  3.8 Incarnate Word          
 95 25  -5  6.5  4.5 Northern Colorado       
 96 50  -5  7.0  3.9 Northwestern State      
 97 29  -5  7.2  3.7 Virginia Military       
 98 18  -5  6.3  4.6 Eastern Illinois        
 99 35  -5  6.6  4.3 Hampton                 
100 43  -5  6.8  4.1 Alabama A&M             
101 21  -5  6.8  4.1 Western Carolina        
102 14  -5  6.3  4.6 Bucknell                
103 42  -5  6.4  4.4 Bryant                  
104 41  -6  6.6  4.2 Stephen F. Austin       
105 53  -6  6.6  4.1 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
106 28  -6  6.3  4.5 Morgan State            
107 37  -6  6.1  4.7 Alabama State           
108 22  -6  6.6  4.1 Gardner - Webb          
109 21  -6  5.9  4.8 Wagner                  
110 **  -7  8.2  2.1 Merrimack               
111 33  -6  6.4  4.1 Jackson State           
112 66  -6  6.2  4.4 Stetson                 
113 39  -7  6.4  4.1 Marist                  
114 37  -7  6.5  3.7 Jacksonville            
115 26  -7  5.7  4.7 North Carolina Central  
116 39  -7  6.0  4.3 Lamar                   
117 **  -8  6.1  4.0 Long Island             
118 27  -8  6.1  4.0 Butler                  
119  9  -8  6.0  4.0 Delaware State          
120 39  -8  6.5  3.5 Morehead State          
121 42  -8  5.9  4.1 Valparaiso              
122 11  -9  6.5  3.3 Howard                  
123  8 -10  5.4  4.3 Presbyterian            
124  7 -11  6.3  3.0 Texas Southern          
125  9 -11  6.4  2.7 Houston Baptist         
126  9 -10  5.3  4.1 Mississippi Valley State

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net