18 Jan 2020: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2019 season

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  3  16 10.6  6.5 Louisiana State          129 59   0  7.8  4.7 Colorado State          
  2  4  16 10.1  6.8 Ohio State               130 54   0  7.1  5.4 South Florida           
  3  5  14  9.3  7.4 Clemson                  131 54   0  7.2  5.3 Miami - Ohio            
  4  5  13  9.5  6.5 Alabama                  132 64   0  7.9  4.6 San Jose State          
  5  8  11  8.9  6.8 Wisconsin                133 82   0  6.4  6.1 Illinois State          
  6  6  10  8.3  7.2 Georgia                  134 68   0  7.6  4.9 Youngstown State        
  7 10  11  9.0  6.5 Oregon                   135 51   0  7.1  5.3 Georgia Tech            
  8 13  10  8.9  6.5 Michigan                 136 60   0  7.9  4.5 Southeast Louisiana     
  9  9  10  8.7  6.6 Penn State               137 57   0  7.6  4.8 Arkansas                
 10  8  10  8.8  6.6 Notre Dame               138 65   0  8.2  4.1 Northeast Louisiana     
 11 10  10  8.7  6.6 Florida                  139 49   0  7.0  5.4 Richmond                
 12  8  10  8.6  6.6 Auburn                   140 38   0  7.4  5.0 Florida International   
 13 13   9  9.4  5.8 Oklahoma                 141 41   0  6.9  5.5 Alabama - Birmingham    
 14 16   8  8.0  6.9 Iowa                     142 56   0  6.9  5.4 Stony Brook             
 15  9   9  8.3  6.7 Washington               143 56   0  7.0  5.3 Vanderbilt              
 16 15   8  8.2  6.8 Utah                     144 52   0  7.5  4.8 North Carolina - Charlot
 17 15   8  8.7  6.2 James Madison            145 55   0  7.8  4.5 South Dakota            
 18 36   9  9.0  5.9 Minnesota                146 37   0  7.2  5.1 Southeast Missouri State
 19 15   9  9.0  5.9 Texas                    147 37   0  7.1  5.2 Holy Cross              
 20 14   8  8.5  6.3 Baylor                   148 42   0  7.1  5.2 Eastern Kentucky        
 21 16   8  9.3  5.5 Central Florida          149 56   0  7.2  5.1 Delaware                
 22 37   8  9.3  5.4 Memphis                  150 58   0  7.2  5.1 Nicholls State          
 23 19   7  8.1  6.5 North Dakota State       151 52   0  7.5  4.8 Alcorn State            
 24 21   7  8.8  5.7 North Carolina           152 42   0  7.7  4.4 North Texas             
 25 32   7  8.1  6.4 Kentucky                 153 41   0  7.0  5.2 Tennessee - Martin      
 26 25   7  8.5  5.9 Iowa State               154 37   0  7.0  5.2 Northern Illinois       
 27 24   6  8.3  6.1 Texas A&M                155 55   0  7.2  5.0 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 28 53   7  8.6  5.8 Navy                     156 35   0  7.7  4.5 Toledo                  
 29 38   7  9.1  5.3 Southern California      157 35   0  7.4  4.8 Coastal Carolina        
 30 17   6  8.4  5.9 Appalachian State        158 49  -1  7.2  5.0 The Citadel             
 31 49   6  8.5  5.8 Virginia Tech            159 49  -1  7.7  4.4 East Carolina           
 32 20   6  8.0  6.2 Kansas State             160 45  -1  7.1  5.1 North Dakota            
 33 43   6  8.7  5.5 Virginia                 161 43  -1  7.7  4.4 Georgia State           
 34 62   6  8.4  5.7 Florida Atlantic         162 68  -1  7.0  5.1 Rutgers                 
 35 38   6  7.9  6.3 Cincinnati               163 42  -1  7.2  4.9 Idaho                   
 36 35   6  8.9  5.3 Washington State         164 26  -1  8.2  3.8 Northern Arizona        
 37 26   5  8.3  5.8 Oklahoma State           165 56  -1  6.7  5.4 South Carolina State    
 38 38   5  8.1  5.9 Texas Christian          166 53  -1  7.3  4.7 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 39 44   5  8.0  6.0 Air Force                167 56  -1  7.4  4.6 Prairie View            
 40 22   5  8.5  5.5 Montana                  168 73  -1  7.0  5.1 Jacksonville State      
 41 48   5  8.4  5.6 Indiana                  169 60  -1  7.1  4.9 Pennsylvania            
 42 64   5  8.2  5.8 Louisiana - Lafayette    170 44  -1  7.1  4.8 Nevada - Reno           
 43 66   5  8.4  5.5 Nebraska                 171 64  -1  6.9  5.0 Grambling               
 44 81   5  9.3  4.7 Southern Methodist       172 79  -1  8.1  3.8 Dayton                  
 45 46   4  7.8  6.1 Arizona State            173 48  -1  7.7  4.2 Samford                 
 46 75   5  8.1  5.7 Tulane                   174 35  -1  7.4  4.5 Portland State          
 47 35   4  7.8  6.0 Tennessee                175 35  -2  7.4  4.5 Rhode Island            
 48 43   4  7.7  6.1 Missouri                 176 54  -2  6.5  5.4 Cornell                 
 49 37   4  7.9  5.9 Mississippi              177 40  -2  7.2  4.6 California Poly         
 50 26   4  7.9  5.8 Montana State            178 98  -2  6.7  5.2 Sam Houston State       
 51 40   4  7.5  6.3 California               179 58  -2  6.9  5.0 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 52 53   4  7.4  6.4 Michigan State           180 53  -2  6.7  5.2 Indiana State           
 53 16   4  8.0  5.8 Boise State              181 54  -2  7.2  4.6 Florida A&M             
 54 48   4  8.1  5.6 Austin Peay              182 62  -2  6.9  5.0 Sacred Heart            
 55 49   4  8.4  5.3 Wake Forest              183 45  -2  6.6  5.3 Rice                    
 56 57   4  8.4  5.3 Texas Tech               184 93  -2  7.0  4.8 Central Arkansas        
 57 44   4  8.0  5.6 Florida State            185 62  -2  7.0  4.8 Southern                
 58 86   4  8.6  5.1 Oregon State             186 16  -2  7.8  3.9 Brown                   
 59 34   4  8.0  5.6 Mississippi State        187 74  -2  6.6  5.1 McNeese State           
 60 56   3  7.6  6.0 South Carolina           188 45  -2  7.3  4.4 Southern Utah           
 61 30   4  8.4  5.1 Yale                     189 43  -2  7.2  4.5 Texas - San Antonio     
 62 83   3  8.2  5.3 Purdue                   190 85  -2  7.2  4.4 Davidson                
 63 52   3  7.3  6.2 Dartmouth                191 39  -3  6.6  5.0 South Alabama           
 64 69   3  7.6  5.8 West Virginia            192 55  -3  6.4  5.2 Colgate                 
 65 30   3  8.2  5.2 North Carolina A&T       193 34  -3  7.1  4.5 New Mexico              
 66 46   3  8.7  4.7 Louisville               194 52  -3  7.2  4.3 Mercer                  
 67 56   3  7.7  5.7 Buffalo                  195 39  -3  6.4  5.1 East Tennessee State    
 68 27   3  7.5  5.9 Weber State              196 42  -3  6.6  4.9 Charleston Southern     
 69 44   3  7.8  5.6 Duke                     197 42  -3  7.0  4.4 Norfolk State           
 70 28   3  7.8  5.6 Towson                   198 71  -3  6.6  4.9 Duquesne                
 71 67   3  7.8  5.6 Stanford                 199 28  -3  7.0  4.4 Fordham                 
 72 55   3  8.2  5.2 Boston College           200 23  -3  6.5  5.0 Murray State            
 73 36   3  6.6  6.7 San Diego State          201 55  -3  6.5  5.0 Columbia                
 74 58   3  7.5  5.9 Western Kentucky         202 30  -3  6.1  5.3 Georgetown              
 75 32   3  7.3  6.0 Pittsburgh               203 36  -3  6.6  4.8 Texas State - San Marcos
 76 48   3  8.2  5.2 Houston                  204 82  -3  6.5  4.9 Drake                   
 77 59   3  7.4  5.9 South Dakota State       205 50  -3  6.6  4.7 Bethune - Cookman       
 78 48   3  7.8  5.5 Sacramento State         206 24  -3  6.5  4.9 Old Dominion            
 79 24   2  7.2  6.1 Miami - Florida          207 18  -4  7.2  4.1 Tennessee Tech          
 80 32   3  8.7  4.6 Eastern Washington       208 15  -4  7.0  4.3 Idaho State             
 81 88   2  8.1  5.2 Illinois                 209 53  -4  6.7  4.6 Robert Morris           
 82 46   2  7.6  5.7 Wofford                  210 49  -4  6.9  4.4 Campbell                
 83 37   2  7.7  5.5 Louisiana Tech           211 32  -4  7.3  3.9 New Mexico State        
 84 38   2  8.0  5.2 Syracuse                 212 19  -4  6.4  4.9 Lafayette               
 85 56   2  7.9  5.3 Kennesaw State           213 76  -4  6.5  4.7 Abilene Christian       
 86 66   2  8.1  5.1 California - Los Angeles 214 83  -4  7.0  4.1 North Alabama           
 87 70   2  8.0  5.2 Tulsa                    215 29  -4  7.0  4.1 Tennessee State         
 88 62   2  7.5  5.7 Princeton                216 27  -4  6.2  5.0 Lehigh                  
 89 45   2  7.0  6.2 Wyoming                  217 30  -5  6.9  4.2 Connecticut             
 90 50   2  8.2  4.9 Villanova                218 61  -5  6.8  4.3 Western Illinois        
 91 56   2  8.5  4.7 Hawaii                   219 28  -5  7.3  3.7 Virginia Military       
 92 16   2  7.6  5.6 Brigham Young            220 44  -5  6.6  4.4 Missouri State          
 93 33   2  8.1  5.0 Ohio                     221 53  -5  7.1  3.9 Northwestern State      
 94 56   2  7.6  5.5 Colorado                 222 32  -5  6.6  4.4 Hampton                 
 95 56   2  7.5  5.6 Temple                   223 26  -5  6.5  4.5 Northern Colorado       
 96 38   2  7.9  5.1 Western Michigan         224 44  -5  6.9  4.0 Alabama A&M             
 97 59   2  6.6  6.5 Northern Iowa            225 56  -5  7.1  3.7 Incarnate Word          
 98 60   2  8.0  5.1 Arizona                  226 50  -5  6.6  4.3 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
 99 37   2  7.7  5.3 Albany                   227 14  -5  6.3  4.6 Bucknell                
100 44   2  8.2  4.8 Monmouth                 228 34  -5  6.1  4.8 Alabama State           
101 28   1  7.9  5.1 California - Davis       229 40  -5  6.6  4.2 Stephen F. Austin       
102 56   1  7.5  5.4 Southern Mississippi     230 20  -5  6.2  4.7 Eastern Illinois        
103 28   1  7.5  5.4 Georgia Southern         231 44  -5  6.3  4.5 Bryant                  
104 60   1  6.6  6.3 Northwestern             232 23  -6  6.6  4.2 Western Carolina        
105 69   1  8.1  4.8 Ball State               233 21  -6  6.6  4.1 Texas - El Paso         
106 33   1  7.8  5.0 Maine                    234 31  -6  6.3  4.5 Morgan State            
107 32   1  7.2  5.7 Army                     235 23  -6  6.6  4.0 Gardner - Webb          
108 52   1  7.3  5.5 Furman                   236 15  -6  6.5  4.0 Bowling Green           
109 43   1  7.4  5.4 Marshall                 237 **  -7  8.2  2.1 Merrimack               
110 26   1  7.3  5.5 Elon                     238 33  -7  6.6  3.9 Jackson State           
111 34   1  7.6  5.2 Fresno State             239 22  -6  5.7  4.9 Wagner                  
112 66   1  7.8  4.9 Middle Tennessee State   240 64  -7  6.1  4.5 Stetson                 
113 70   1  7.7  5.1 San Diego                241 36  -7  6.6  3.8 Jacksonville            
114 65   1  7.7  5.0 Kansas                   242 39  -7  6.4  4.0 Marist                  
115 79   1  7.7  5.1 Maryland                 243 35  -8  6.5  3.6 Morehead State          
116 70   0  7.9  4.8 Kent State               244 26  -8  5.5  4.7 North Carolina Central  
117 38   0  7.8  4.9 Liberty                  245 10  -8  6.0  4.0 Delaware State          
118 43   0  8.0  4.6 Arkansas State           246 39  -8  5.8  4.3 Lamar                   
119 54   0  6.7  6.0 New Hampshire            247 **  -8  5.7  4.4 Long Island             
120 52   0  7.3  5.4 Southern Illinois        248  9  -9  7.2  2.6 Massachusetts           
121 64   0  7.6  5.1 Central Connecticut      249 27  -9  6.0  3.9 Butler                  
122 40   0  7.9  4.8 Utah State               250 41  -9  5.7  4.2 Valparaiso              
123 73   0  7.3  5.4 Harvard                  251  8  -8  5.4  4.6 Akron                   
124 53   0  7.3  5.3 North Carolina State     252 10 -10  6.3  3.3 Howard                  
125 57   0  7.9  4.7 Central Michigan         253  8 -10  5.3  4.3 Presbyterian            
126 37   0  8.1  4.4 Troy State               254  7 -11  6.4  2.9 Texas Southern          
127 37   0  7.3  5.3 William & Mary           255  9 -11  6.5  2.6 Houston Baptist         
128 46   0  7.8  4.8 Eastern Michigan         256  8 -11  5.1  4.2 Mississippi Valley State

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net