15 Sep 2019: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2019 season

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  5  14  9.4  7.0 Alabama                  129 23   0  7.7  4.9 Southeast Missouri State
  2  7  13  9.0  7.3 Clemson                  130 50   0  8.1  4.4 Oregon State            
  3  6  12  9.0  6.9 Georgia                  131 60   0  7.0  5.6 Northern Illinois       
  4  7  12  9.5  6.2 Ohio State               132 60   0  7.3  5.2 South Florida           
  5 21  11 10.0  5.6 Oklahoma                 133 35   0  7.7  4.7 Southern Illinois       
  6  7  10  9.1  6.2 Louisiana State          134 61   0  7.7  4.8 Mercer                  
  7 13  10  9.3  6.0 Central Florida          135 40   0  7.2  5.3 Coastal Carolina        
  8 10   9  8.6  6.5 North Dakota State       136 41   0  7.7  4.7 Austin Peay             
  9 25   9  9.1  6.0 Missouri                 137 60   0  7.5  4.9 Florida International   
 10 18   9  8.4  6.6 Washington               138 54   0  7.0  5.4 Wofford                 
 11  8   9  8.6  6.4 Notre Dame               139 50   0  7.2  5.2 Tulsa                   
 12 29   9  8.4  6.5 Auburn                   140 57   0  7.0  5.3 Pennsylvania            
 13  9   9  8.6  6.3 Penn State               141 45   0  7.7  4.6 Northeast Louisiana     
 14 12   8  8.5  6.4 Wisconsin                142 58   0  7.1  5.2 Central Arkansas        
 15 60   8  8.5  6.3 Michigan                 143 42   0  7.2  5.0 Nicholls State          
 16 25   8  8.5  6.3 Florida                  144 18   0  7.4  4.8 Indiana State           
 17 19   8  8.7  6.1 Texas A&M                145 61   0  7.6  4.6 Nevada - Reno           
 18 11   8  8.9  5.9 Oregon                   146 51   0  7.7  4.5 California Poly         
 19 19   8  8.8  5.9 Texas                    147 63   0  7.7  4.4 San Diego               
 20 15   8  8.2  6.4 Mississippi State        148 32   0  8.0  4.1 Idaho State             
 21 16   8  9.0  5.6 Princeton                149 60   0  7.1  5.0 Columbia                
 22 22   7  8.1  6.5 Iowa                     150 59  -1  7.5  4.6 Richmond                
 23 17   8  9.4  5.3 Oklahoma State           151 49  -1  7.1  5.1 Albany                  
 24 18   7  8.5  6.1 James Madison            152 56  -1  6.8  5.4 Western Illinois        
 25 20   7  8.7  5.9 Washington State         153 56  -1  7.6  4.4 Ball State              
 26 44   8  9.1  5.5 Utah State               154 45  -1  6.8  5.3 Rutgers                 
 27 52   7  8.2  6.3 Miami - Florida          155 37  -1  8.0  4.0 Colorado State          
 28 52   7  8.8  5.7 West Virginia            156 42  -1  7.1  5.0 Holy Cross              
 29 14   7  8.1  6.3 Utah                     157 71  -1  7.3  4.7 Central Connecticut     
 30 13   7  8.2  6.2 Kansas State             158 29  -1  7.4  4.6 Northern Arizona        
 31 31   7  8.7  5.6 Maryland                 159 39  -1  7.5  4.5 Old Dominion            
 32 30   6  8.3  5.9 Appalachian State        160 45  -1  7.6  4.4 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 33 27   6  8.1  6.1 South Dakota State       161 67  -1  7.0  5.0 Duquesne                
 34 86   6  8.0  6.1 Fresno State             162 35  -1  7.1  4.9 Liberty                 
 35 29   6  8.0  6.2 Kentucky                 163 74  -1  7.8  4.1 Samford                 
 36 36   6  8.2  5.9 Duke                     164 74  -1  7.3  4.6 Dayton                  
 37 57   6  8.1  6.0 Stanford                 165 63  -1  7.5  4.5 Sam Houston State       
 38 34   6  8.4  5.7 Southern California      166 39  -1  6.9  5.0 Western Kentucky        
 39 49   6  8.9  5.3 Eastern Washington       167 37  -1  7.0  4.9 Alcorn State            
 40 23   5  7.6  6.4 Texas Christian          168 45  -1  6.6  5.3 William & Mary          
 41 70   5  7.9  6.2 Iowa State               169 60  -1  7.1  4.8 Cornell                 
 42 35   5  8.0  6.0 Virginia                 170 51  -2  7.4  4.5 Sacred Heart            
 43 21   5  8.0  6.0 Boise State              171 32  -2  7.6  4.2 Monmouth                
 44 35   5  8.4  5.7 South Carolina           172 51  -2  7.5  4.4 New Mexico              
 45 36   5  8.1  5.9 North Carolina State     173 41  -2  6.8  5.0 Tennessee - Martin      
 46 35   5  7.2  6.7 Michigan State           174 26  -2  7.5  4.2 Prairie View            
 47 20   5  8.3  5.6 Memphis                  175 38  -2  7.3  4.4 Georgia State           
 48 36   5  8.6  5.3 Baylor                   176 42  -2  7.5  4.2 South Dakota            
 49 29   5  7.8  6.0 Dartmouth                177 38  -2  7.1  4.7 East Carolina           
 50 40   5  7.6  6.2 Pittsburgh               178 33  -2  7.1  4.6 Southern                
 51 27   5  8.1  5.7 Kennesaw State           179 45  -2  6.9  4.8 Central Michigan        
 52 36   4  7.7  6.1 Northwestern             180 60  -2  6.4  5.3 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 53 43   5  8.4  5.4 Wake Forest              181 70  -2  7.1  4.5 Sacramento State        
 54 66   4  8.3  5.4 Ohio                     182 57  -2  7.1  4.6 Kent State              
 55 67   4  8.1  5.6 Temple                   183 36  -2  6.8  4.8 East Tennessee State    
 56 65   4  8.2  5.5 Minnesota                184 38  -2  7.1  4.5 Idaho                   
 57 45   4  8.4  5.2 Nebraska                 185 23  -2  7.0  4.6 Missouri State          
 58 68   4  7.4  6.3 Army                     186 60  -2  7.1  4.5 Southeast Louisiana     
 59 45   4  8.6  5.0 Houston                  187 34  -3  7.0  4.6 South Alabama           
 60 22   4  8.1  5.6 Texas Tech               188 56  -3  7.3  4.3 Southern Utah           
 61 42   4  8.5  5.1 Arizona                  189 52  -3  7.1  4.4 Bethune - Cookman       
 62 70   4  7.6  6.0 Arizona State            190 42  -3  7.0  4.5 San Jose State          
 63 46   4  8.1  5.5 Mississippi              191 34  -3  7.0  4.5 Portland State          
 64 57   4  8.1  5.4 Syracuse                 192 56  -3  7.2  4.2 Tennessee State         
 65 73   4  7.9  5.6 Vanderbilt               193 63  -3  7.8  3.6 Incarnate Word          
 66 15   3  7.3  6.3 California               194 25  -3  7.6  3.8 Western Carolina        
 67 37   3  7.7  5.9 Brigham Young            195 44  -3  6.5  5.0 Eastern Kentucky        
 68 45   3  8.1  5.4 Air Force                196 67  -3  6.9  4.5 Abilene Christian       
 69 52   3  8.7  4.8 Toledo                   197 32  -3  6.6  4.8 Texas - San Antonio     
 70 39   3  7.9  5.5 North Carolina           198 55  -3  6.0  5.5 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 71 76   3  8.2  5.2 Purdue                   199 41  -3  6.8  4.6 Rice                    
 72 52   3  7.5  5.9 Tulane                   200 19  -3  6.9  4.5 Florida A&M             
 73 32   3  7.9  5.5 Colorado                 201 65  -3  6.4  5.0 McNeese State           
 74 61   3  7.3  6.1 Cincinnati               202 33  -3  6.6  4.8 Charleston Southern     
 75 34   3  8.0  5.4 Boston College           203 79  -3  6.2  5.2 Drake                   
 76 35   3  8.0  5.3 Towson                   204 92  -3  6.4  5.0 Campbell                
 77 72   3  7.8  5.6 Georgia Tech             205 38  -3  6.2  5.1 South Carolina State    
 78 18   3  7.9  5.4 Virginia Tech            206 41  -4  6.6  4.7 Texas State - San Marcos
 79 64   3  7.3  6.0 Northern Iowa            207 25  -4  6.9  4.4 Murray State            
 80 40   3  7.8  5.5 Indiana                  208 23  -4  7.6  3.6 Massachusetts           
 81 55   3  7.9  5.5 Youngstown State         209 83  -4  6.4  4.8 Fordham                 
 82 38   3  8.3  5.1 Florida State            210 36  -4  7.2  3.9 New Mexico State        
 83 32   2  8.1  5.2 California - Davis       211 27  -4  6.5  4.7 Akron                   
 84 50   2  7.7  5.5 Navy                     212 32  -4  6.5  4.7 Grambling               
 85 60   2  8.4  4.8 Southern Methodist       213 32  -5  6.7  4.3 Connecticut             
 86 52   2  8.4  4.8 Louisiana - Lafayette    214 28  -5  6.8  4.3 Bowling Green           
 87 38   2  7.5  5.7 Marshall                 215 30  -5  6.7  4.3 Lehigh                  
 88 66   2  7.8  5.3 Troy State               216 28  -5  6.5  4.5 Eastern Illinois        
 89 42   2  7.7  5.4 Harvard                  217 37  -5  6.9  4.0 Northwestern State      
 90 40   2  8.1  4.9 Jacksonville State       218 35  -5  6.4  4.5 Lamar                   
 91 31   2  6.9  6.2 San Diego State          219 36  -5  6.3  4.6 Alabama A&M             
 92 48   2  7.6  5.5 Kansas                   220 25  -5  6.8  4.0 Wagner                  
 93 45   2  7.9  5.2 Furman                   221 35  -5  5.9  5.1 Georgetown              
 94 49   2  7.2  5.9 Wyoming                  222 82  -5  6.4  4.4 Brown                   
 95 65   2  8.1  5.0 Florida Atlantic         223 75  -5  7.0  3.7 Tennessee Tech          
 96 42   2  7.3  5.8 Weber State              224 **  -5  7.1  3.7 North Alabama           
 97 43   2  8.0  5.0 Yale                     225 15  -6  7.2  3.5 Howard                  
 98 30   2  7.5  5.5 Elon                     226 66  -5  6.2  4.6 Lafayette               
 99 46   2  8.4  4.6 Western Michigan         227 30  -5  6.3  4.5 Texas - El Paso         
100 30   2  7.7  5.3 Tennessee                228 97  -6  6.7  4.0 Stetson                 
101 67   2  7.8  5.2 Eastern Michigan         229 69  -6  6.8  3.9 Hampton                 
102 48   2  7.1  6.0 Illinois State           230 17  -6  6.4  4.3 Morgan State            
103 46   2  7.6  5.4 Alabama - Birmingham     231 36  -6  6.8  3.8 Bryant                  
104 72   2  8.4  4.6 Hawaii                   232 74  -6  6.9  3.6 Davidson                
105 43   1  7.5  5.5 Maine                    233 77  -6  6.0  4.6 Colgate                 
106 51   1  7.7  5.2 Southern Mississippi     234 24  -6  6.3  4.3 Gardner - Webb          
107 50   1  7.7  5.2 Arkansas State           235 55  -6  6.0  4.6 Jackson State           
108 75   1  7.5  5.5 Villanova                236 **  -7  8.1  2.1 Merrimack               
109 58   1  7.7  5.2 California - Los Angeles 237 18  -6  5.9  4.7 Norfolk State           
110 60   1  7.7  5.2 Montana                  238 15  -7  6.5  4.0 Northern Colorado       
111 47   1  7.9  5.0 Middle Tennessee State   239 14  -7  6.9  3.5 Virginia Military       
112 60   1  7.9  4.9 North Texas              240 **  -7  8.0  2.2 Long Island             
113 48   1  7.9  4.9 Louisville               241 30  -7  6.6  3.8 Robert Morris           
114 50   1  7.3  5.5 Montana State            242 41  -7  6.4  4.0 Stephen F. Austin       
115 43   1  7.6  5.2 Arkansas                 243 19  -7  5.8  4.6 North Carolina Central  
116 54   1  7.6  5.1 Georgia Southern         244 28  -7  6.2  4.2 Marist                  
117 38   1  7.4  5.3 Delaware                 245 64  -7  6.3  4.1 Butler                  
118 60   1  7.7  5.0 Miami - Ohio             246 26  -7  5.6  4.7 Bucknell                
119 52   1  6.8  6.0 Stony Brook              247 76  -7  6.3  3.9 Delaware State          
120 46   0  7.1  5.6 North Carolina A&T       248 67  -8  6.5  3.7 Jacksonville            
121 45   0  7.2  5.4 North Dakota             249 33  -8  6.4  3.7 Valparaiso              
122 57   0  6.7  5.9 New Hampshire            250 30  -8  5.8  4.3 Alabama State           
123 54   0  7.8  4.7 Rhode Island             251 33  -9  6.8  3.1 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
124 70   0  7.8  4.8 North Carolina - Charlot 252 20  -9  5.6  4.3 Presbyterian            
125 36   0  7.1  5.4 Louisiana Tech           253 54  -9  6.7  3.0 Morehead State          
126 29   0  7.5  5.0 The Citadel              254 18  -9  6.1  3.5 Texas Southern          
127 49   0  7.6  4.9 Buffalo                  255 40 -10  6.2  3.4 Mississippi Valley State
128 58   0  7.8  4.8 Illinois                 256 31 -10  6.5  2.8 Houston Baptist         

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net