6 Jan 2020: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2019 season

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  3  16 10.2  6.8 Ohio State               129 55   0  7.1  5.5 South Florida           
  2  4  15  9.4  7.5 Clemson                  130 53   0  7.2  5.4 Miami - Ohio            
  3  5  15 10.3  6.4 Louisiana State          131 64   0  7.9  4.6 San Jose State          
  4  5  13  9.6  6.5 Alabama                  132 52   0  7.1  5.3 Georgia Tech            
  5  9  11  8.9  6.8 Wisconsin                133 58   0  7.9  4.5 Southeast Louisiana     
  6 12  11  9.0  6.6 Oregon                   134 81   0  6.4  6.1 Illinois State          
  7  9  10  8.2  7.2 Georgia                  135 59   0  7.6  4.8 Arkansas                
  8 15  10  9.0  6.5 Michigan                 136 42   0  7.8  4.6 Utah State              
  9  8  10  8.8  6.6 Notre Dame               137 66   0  8.2  4.1 Northeast Louisiana     
 10 12  10  8.8  6.6 Florida                  138 71   0  7.5  4.8 Youngstown State        
 11 10  10  8.7  6.6 Penn State               139 50   0  7.0  5.4 Richmond                
 12  9  10  8.6  6.6 Auburn                   140 39   0  7.4  5.0 Florida International   
 13  9   9  8.8  6.4 James Madison            141 53   0  7.6  4.8 North Carolina - Charlot
 14 16   8  8.0  6.9 Iowa                     142 56   0  6.9  5.4 Stony Brook             
 15 16   9  9.3  5.8 Oklahoma                 143 52   0  7.8  4.5 South Dakota            
 16 14   9  9.0  6.0 Texas                    144 33   0  7.1  5.2 Holy Cross              
 17 38   9  9.1  5.9 Minnesota                145 56   0  7.0  5.3 Vanderbilt              
 18 11   8  8.2  6.7 Washington               146 37   0  7.2  5.1 Southeast Missouri State
 19 14   8  8.5  6.4 Baylor                   147 41   0  7.1  5.2 Eastern Kentucky        
 20 21   8  8.2  6.7 Utah                     148 38   0  6.8  5.4 Alabama - Birmingham    
 21 38   8  9.4  5.4 Memphis                  149 54   0  7.1  5.1 Delaware                
 22 17   8  9.3  5.5 Central Florida          150 43   0  7.7  4.5 North Texas             
 23 18   8  8.9  5.8 North Carolina           151 60   0  7.1  5.1 Nicholls State          
 24 28   7  8.1  6.5 Kentucky                 152 44   0  7.2  5.0 The Citadel             
 25 54   7  8.7  5.8 Navy                     153 37   0  7.0  5.2 Northern Illinois       
 26 32   7  8.5  6.0 Iowa State               154 54   0  7.2  5.0 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 27 23   6  8.0  6.4 North Dakota State       155 36   0  7.4  4.8 Coastal Carolina        
 28 57   7  8.5  5.9 Virginia Tech            156 35  -1  7.7  4.5 Toledo                  
 29 42   7  9.3  5.2 Southern California      157 43  -1  6.9  5.2 Tennessee - Martin      
 30 18   6  8.4  5.9 Appalachian State        158 56  -1  7.4  4.7 Alcorn State            
 31 22   6  8.1  6.2 Texas A&M                159 48  -1  7.7  4.4 East Carolina           
 32 19   6  8.0  6.3 Kansas State             160 44  -1  7.1  5.1 North Dakota            
 33 62   6  8.5  5.8 Florida Atlantic         161 26  -1  8.2  3.9 Northern Arizona        
 34 43   6  8.9  5.4 Virginia                 162 44  -1  7.7  4.4 Georgia State           
 35 38   6  7.9  6.3 Cincinnati               163 53  -1  7.5  4.6 Prairie View            
 36 38   6  8.9  5.2 Washington State         164 55  -1  7.3  4.7 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 37 42   5  8.0  6.1 Air Force                165 66  -1  7.0  5.1 Rutgers                 
 38 49   5  8.5  5.6 Indiana                  166 55  -1  6.7  5.4 South Carolina State    
 39 37   5  8.1  5.9 Texas Christian          167 72  -1  7.0  5.1 Jacksonville State      
 40 21   5  8.5  5.5 Montana                  168 59  -1  7.1  4.9 Pennsylvania            
 41 26   5  8.1  5.8 Oklahoma State           169 39  -1  7.2  4.9 Idaho                   
 42 64   5  8.1  5.8 Louisiana - Lafayette    170 45  -1  7.1  4.9 Nevada - Reno           
 43 66   5  8.4  5.5 Nebraska                 171 65  -1  6.9  5.0 Grambling               
 44 36   5  7.8  6.1 Tennessee                172 32  -1  7.4  4.5 Rhode Island            
 45 82   5  9.3  4.6 Southern Methodist       173 79  -2  8.1  3.7 Dayton                  
 46 43   5  7.7  6.2 Arizona State            174 34  -1  7.4  4.5 Portland State          
 47 29   5  8.0  5.9 Montana State            175 50  -2  7.7  4.2 Samford                 
 48 73   5  8.2  5.7 Tulane                   176 55  -2  6.5  5.4 Cornell                 
 49 39   4  7.5  6.3 California               177 40  -2  7.2  4.6 California Poly         
 50 50   4  8.2  5.6 Austin Peay              178 98  -2  6.7  5.2 Sam Houston State       
 51 41   4  7.7  6.1 Missouri                 179 58  -2  6.9  5.0 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 52 35   4  7.9  5.9 Mississippi              180 53  -2  6.7  5.2 Indiana State           
 53 53   4  7.4  6.3 Michigan State           181 61  -2  6.9  5.0 Sacred Heart            
 54 16   4  7.9  5.8 Boise State              182 46  -2  6.6  5.3 Rice                    
 55 89   4  8.6  5.1 Oregon State             183 55  -2  7.2  4.6 Florida A&M             
 56 45   4  8.4  5.3 Wake Forest              184 93  -2  7.0  4.8 Central Arkansas        
 57 56   4  8.4  5.3 Texas Tech               185 16  -2  7.8  3.9 Brown                   
 58 45   4  8.0  5.6 Florida State            186 62  -2  7.0  4.8 Southern                
 59 55   3  7.5  6.0 South Carolina           187 74  -2  6.7  5.1 McNeese State           
 60 29   4  8.5  5.1 Yale                     188 44  -2  7.2  4.5 Texas - San Antonio     
 61 58   3  7.8  5.8 Buffalo                  189 45  -2  7.2  4.4 Southern Utah           
 62 51   3  7.3  6.2 Dartmouth                190 84  -2  7.2  4.4 Davidson                
 63 29   3  8.3  5.2 North Carolina A&T       191 39  -3  6.6  5.0 South Alabama           
 64 81   3  8.2  5.3 Purdue                   192 34  -3  7.1  4.5 New Mexico              
 65 35   3  7.9  5.6 Mississippi State        193 56  -3  6.3  5.2 Colgate                 
 66 48   3  8.7  4.8 Louisville               194 42  -3  7.0  4.5 Norfolk State           
 67 61   3  7.5  5.9 Western Kentucky         195 52  -3  7.2  4.3 Mercer                  
 68 65   3  7.6  5.8 West Virginia            196 42  -3  6.6  4.9 Charleston Southern     
 69 26   3  7.4  6.0 Weber State              197 27  -3  7.1  4.3 Fordham                 
 70 27   3  7.8  5.6 Towson                   198 71  -3  6.6  4.9 Duquesne                
 71 45   3  7.8  5.6 Duke                     199 28  -3  6.1  5.4 Georgetown              
 72 34   3  6.6  6.8 San Diego State          200 44  -3  6.4  5.1 East Tennessee State    
 73 98   3  8.1  5.3 Illinois                 201 23  -3  6.5  5.0 Murray State            
 74 65   3  7.7  5.6 Stanford                 202 55  -3  6.5  5.0 Columbia                
 75 54   3  8.1  5.2 Boston College           203 36  -3  6.6  4.8 Texas State - San Marcos
 76 49   3  7.8  5.6 Sacramento State         204 49  -3  6.6  4.8 Bethune - Cookman       
 77 47   3  8.1  5.2 Houston                  205 82  -3  6.5  4.9 Drake                   
 78 31   3  8.7  4.6 Eastern Washington       206 45  -4  6.9  4.4 Campbell                
 79 34   2  7.2  6.0 Pittsburgh               207 52  -4  6.7  4.6 Robert Morris           
 80 39   2  7.7  5.6 Louisiana Tech           208 23  -4  6.5  4.9 Old Dominion            
 81 46   2  7.6  5.7 Wofford                  209 15  -4  7.0  4.3 Idaho State             
 82 38   2  8.0  5.2 Syracuse                 210 21  -4  7.2  4.1 Tennessee Tech          
 83 64   2  7.4  5.9 South Dakota State       211 32  -4  7.3  3.9 New Mexico State        
 84 46   2  7.0  6.2 Wyoming                  212 20  -4  6.4  4.9 Lafayette               
 85 56   2  7.9  5.4 Kennesaw State           213 76  -4  6.5  4.7 Abilene Christian       
 86 66   2  8.2  5.1 California - Los Angeles 214 29  -4  7.0  4.1 Tennessee State         
 87 29   2  7.1  6.1 Miami - Florida          215 83  -4  7.0  4.1 North Alabama           
 88 70   2  8.0  5.2 Tulsa                    216 27  -4  6.2  5.0 Lehigh                  
 89 48   2  8.2  4.9 Villanova                217 29  -5  6.9  4.1 Connecticut             
 90 55   2  8.5  4.7 Hawaii                   218 27  -5  7.3  3.7 Virginia Military       
 91 64   2  7.5  5.7 Princeton                219 61  -5  6.8  4.3 Western Illinois        
 92 56   2  7.6  5.5 Colorado                 220 53  -5  7.1  3.9 Northwestern State      
 93 24   2  7.6  5.6 Brigham Young            221 31  -5  6.7  4.3 Hampton                 
 94 40   2  7.9  5.2 Western Michigan         222 46  -5  6.6  4.4 Missouri State          
 95 34   2  8.1  5.0 Ohio                     223 43  -5  6.9  4.0 Alabama A&M             
 96 62   2  8.0  5.1 Arizona                  224 26  -5  6.5  4.5 Northern Colorado       
 97 35   2  7.7  5.3 Albany                   225 55  -5  7.1  3.7 Incarnate Word          
 98 60   2  7.4  5.6 Temple                   226 51  -5  6.6  4.3 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
 99 43   2  8.2  4.8 Monmouth                 227 35  -5  6.1  4.8 Alabama State           
100 27   1  7.9  5.1 California - Davis       228 40  -5  6.6  4.2 Stephen F. Austin       
101 62   1  6.4  6.5 Northern Iowa            229 20  -5  6.2  4.7 Eastern Illinois        
102 58   1  7.5  5.4 Southern Mississippi     230 14  -5  6.3  4.6 Bucknell                
103 71   1  8.1  4.8 Ball State               231 44  -6  6.3  4.5 Bryant                  
104 27   1  7.4  5.5 Georgia Southern         232 23  -6  6.6  4.2 Western Carolina        
105 76   1  8.1  4.7 Kent State               233 21  -6  6.6  4.1 Texas - El Paso         
106 46   1  7.4  5.5 Marshall                 234 32  -6  6.2  4.5 Morgan State            
107 51   1  7.3  5.5 Furman                   235 25  -6  6.6  4.0 Gardner - Webb          
108 34   1  7.8  5.0 Maine                    236 15  -6  6.5  4.1 Bowling Green           
109 23   1  7.3  5.5 Elon                     237 **  -7  8.2  2.1 Merrimack               
110 35   1  7.7  5.2 Fresno State             238 33  -6  6.6  3.9 Jackson State           
111 56   1  6.6  6.3 Northwestern             239 22  -6  5.7  4.9 Wagner                  
112 30   1  7.2  5.6 Army                     240 65  -7  6.0  4.5 Stetson                 
113 69   1  7.7  5.1 San Diego                241 39  -7  6.4  4.0 Marist                  
114 64   1  7.8  4.9 Middle Tennessee State   242 37  -7  6.6  3.8 Jacksonville            
115 50   1  6.7  6.1 New Hampshire            243 36  -8  6.5  3.6 Morehead State          
116 78   1  7.7  5.0 Maryland                 244 26  -8  5.5  4.7 North Carolina Central  
117 63   1  7.7  5.0 Kansas                   245 10  -8  6.0  4.0 Delaware State          
118 35   0  7.8  4.9 Liberty                  246 **  -8  5.7  4.4 Long Island             
119 61   0  7.6  5.1 Central Connecticut      247 40  -8  5.8  4.3 Lamar                   
120 60   0  8.0  4.7 Central Michigan         248  9  -9  7.2  2.6 Massachusetts           
121 70   0  7.3  5.4 Harvard                  249 29  -9  6.0  3.9 Butler                  
122 41   0  8.1  4.6 Arkansas State           250 41  -9  5.7  4.2 Valparaiso              
123 53   0  7.3  5.3 North Carolina State     251  8  -8  5.4  4.6 Akron                   
124 34   0  7.3  5.3 William & Mary           252 11 -10  6.3  3.3 Howard                  
125 56   0  7.3  5.3 Southern Illinois        253  8 -10  5.3  4.3 Presbyterian            
126 36   0  8.1  4.4 Troy State               254  7 -11  6.4  2.9 Texas Southern          
127 45   0  7.8  4.8 Eastern Michigan         255  9 -11  6.5  2.6 Houston Baptist         
128 59   0  7.8  4.7 Colorado State           256  8 -11  5.1  4.2 Mississippi Valley State

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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