prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 2 Alabama 62 67.2, 210 New Mexico State 10 5.9
82% 71 Villanova 38 47.5, 220 Lehigh 10 18.9
78% 23 Florida 45 43.0, 174 Tennessee - Martin 0 14.2
77% 128 Youngstown State 54 49.9, 212 Howard 28 22.4
76% 22 Washington State 59 53.7, 204 Northern Colorado 17 16.9
75% 76 Illinois State 42 57.6, 252 Morehead State 14 17.6
75% 39 Texas Tech 38 52.6, 224 Texas - El Paso 3 16.1
75% 5 Georgia 63 55.7, 193 Murray State 17 15.6
75% 3 Oklahoma 70 58.8, 127 South Dakota 14 27.3
72% 4 North Dakota State 38 44.6, 139 North Dakota 7 8.3
69% 48 Kansas State 52 45.7, 187 Bowling Green 0 16.3
69% 33 North Carolina State 41 51.9, 188 Western Carolina 0 23.5
69% 21 South Dakota State 38 82.2, 238 Long Island 3 38.9
69% 20 Oklahoma State 56 49.7, 208 McNeese State 14 17.2
69% 7 Penn State 45 47.8, 85 Buffalo 13 20.7
68% 101 Towson 42 41.4, 229 North Carolina Central 3 18.0
68% 77 Northern Iowa 34 38.9, 189 Southern Utah 14 14.2
68% 70 Baylor 63 40.0, 195 Texas - San Antonio 14 16.5
68% 69 Florida State 45 42.7, 149 Northeast Louisiana 44 20.6
68% 68 Indiana 52 45.2, 191 Eastern Illinois 0 24.2
68% 63 Virginia Tech 31 47.1, 157 Old Dominion 17 23.5
68% 60 Wake Forest 41 45.0, 216 Rice 21 20.3
68% 54 Arizona State 19 50.2, 199 Sacramento State 7 25.2
68% 38 Appalachian State 56 40.4, 164 North Carolina - Charl 41 12.5
68% 30 James Madison 44 37.8, 205 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 8.1
68% 28 Wisconsin 61 41.1, 168 Central Michigan 0 10.8
68% 13 Iowa 30 40.2, 152 Rutgers 0 10.2
68% 9 Auburn 24 37.7, 105 Tulane 6 12.8
68% 8 Mississippi State 38 37.8, 119 Southern Mississippi 15 11.2
68% 6 Ohio State 42 43.3, 65 Cincinnati 0 21.0
68% 1 Clemson 24 44.1, 18 Texas A&M 10 20.6
67% 242 Davidson 45 49.1, 256 Houston Baptist 7 31.9
67% 209 Lamar 23 46.1, 255 Mississippi Valley Sta 20 25.9
67% 126 Montana 61 51.7, 225 North Alabama 17 32.0
67% 110 Miami - Ohio 48 43.1, 237 Tennessee Tech 17 20.8
67% 91 Hawaii 31 49.1, 142 Oregon State 28 38.1
67% 58 Memphis 55 44.9, 169 Southern 24 29.4
67% 47 Oregon 77 40.9, 107 Nevada - Reno 6 24.3
67% 46 Georgia Tech 14 42.5, 129 South Florida 10 24.6
67% 42 South Carolina 72 38.5, 201 Charleston Southern 10 15.2
67% 37 Boston College 45 39.7, 138 Richmond 13 22.9
67% 27 Boise State 14 39.2, 93 Marshall 7 21.7
67% 26 Utah 35 32.8, 104 Northern Illinois 17 13.4
67% 14 Central Florida 48 45.6, 88 Florida Atlantic 14 29.0
66% 185 Sacred Heart 30 32.5, 236 Bucknell 10 17.8
66% 162 Monmouth 24 36.8, 240 Lafayette 21 22.4
66% 137 Mercer 45 40.3, 249 Presbyterian 7 22.0
66% 100 Wyoming 23 30.3, 213 Texas State - San Marc 14 13.5
66% 90 Jacksonville State 41 33.0, 166 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 18.6
66% 72 Houston 37 46.9, 167 Prairie View 17 33.5
66% 49 Virginia 52 31.4, 183 William & Mary 17 13.5
66% 34 Kentucky 38 33.0, 96 Eastern Michigan 17 17.6
66% 10 Michigan 24 32.8, 45 Army 21 16.3
65% 173 Albany 45 39.7, 215 Bryant 3 29.7
65% 130 Louisiana Tech 20 33.1, 217 Grambling 14 21.4
65% 106 Arizona 65 40.4, 159 Northern Arizona 41 32.2
65% 66 Michigan State 51 32.5, 118 Western Michigan 17 19.1
65% 56 Mississippi 31 39.1, 116 Arkansas 17 26.9
64% 214 Incarnate Word 63 35.9, 253 Texas Southern 44 25.9
64% 186 South Alabama 37 26.4, 244 Jackson State 14 16.7
64% 180 East Carolina 48 36.0, 235 Gardner - Webb 9 25.5
64% 134 Louisville 42 36.1, 202 Eastern Kentucky 0 27.7
64% 133 Southern Illinois 45 45.2, 170 Massachusetts 20 38.1
64% 132 Illinois 31 37.7, 218 Connecticut 23 27.9
64% 124 Louisiana - Lafayette 35 41.8, 158 Liberty 14 32.6
64% 117 Elon 35 31.7, 141 The Citadel 28 21.5
64% 111 Weber State 41 33.0, 156 California Poly 24 23.1
64% 94 Middle Tennessee State 45 35.7, 179 Tennessee State 26 26.5
64% 87 Alabama - Birmingham 31 29.6, 181 Akron 20 19.5
64% 43 Purdue 42 34.1, 67 Vanderbilt 24 25.3
64% 24 Utah State 62 34.6, 81 Stony Brook 7 26.4
63% 50 Duke 45 29.1, 125 North Carolina A&T 13 22.0
59% 150 Tulsa 34 30.7, 184 San Jose State 16 26.7
59% 99 Arkansas State 43 37.0, 136 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 33.1
59% 16 Missouri 38 39.0, 17 West Virginia 7 35.4
58% 75 Colorado 34 34.4, 62 Nebraska 31 30.8
57% 182 Ball State 57 30.6, 226 Fordham 29 27.6
54% 103 Delaware 44 29.6, 123 Rhode Island 36 27.7
54% 57 Pittsburgh 20 33.2, 44 Ohio 10 31.3
54% 52 Southern California 45 28.1, 31 Stanford 20 26.2
53% 78 California - Davis 38 37.2, 143 San Diego 35 35.9
53% 64 Maryland 63 35.7, 41 Syracuse 20 34.4
51% 230 Georgetown 43 25.2, 223 Marist 3 24.5
50% 11 Louisiana State 45 27.2, 25 Texas 38 27.3
48% 154 Central Arkansas 24 30.7, 153 Austin Peay 16 31.8
47% 172 Dayton 42 33.8, 131 Indiana State 35 35.4
47% 120 Southern Methodist 49 35.9, 86 North Texas 27 37.3
44% 135 Montana State 38 30.1, 114 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 32.6
44% 80 Brigham Young 29 22.2, 83 Tennessee 26 25.1
40% 109 Georgia Southern 26 25.1, 95 Maine 18 29.5
37% 163 Holy Cross 13 24.0, 115 New Hampshire 10 31.0
37% 147 Western Kentucky 20 25.9, 113 Florida International 14 32.9
37% 112 San Diego State 23 20.3, 84 California - Los Angel 14 27.4
36% 161 Georgia State 48 26.6, 122 Furman 42 35.2
36% 155 Coastal Carolina 12 24.9, 102 Kansas 7 34.3
36% 145 Colorado State 38 26.4, 108 Western Illinois 13 34.9
36% 61 Minnesota 38 20.3, 29 Fresno State 35 28.7
35% 89 North Carolina 28 23.1, 32 Miami - Florida 25 31.2
34% 73 California 20 13.0, 12 Washington 19 31.1
33% 254 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 52 23.5, 221 Alabama A&M 34 45.1
32% 197 Kent State 26 17.0, 51 Kennesaw State 23 45.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
18 1.11 73 1.28 8 1.33 2 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 101 83 66.0 1.26
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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