prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 24 Texas 48 46.0, 211 Rice 13 12.6
94% 26 James Madison 63 50.5, 227 Morgan State 12 6.6
93% 77 California - Davis 41 46.7, 219 Lehigh 13 24.3
93% 10 Auburn 55 43.4, 184 Kent State 16 5.1
93% 4 Oklahoma 48 52.1, 93 California - Los Angel 14 29.8
93% 3 Georgia 55 45.6, 100 Arkansas State 0 14.0
92% 99 San Diego State 31 37.3, 213 New Mexico State 10 17.0
92% 2 Clemson 41 41.5, 50 Syracuse 6 17.6
91% 55 Memphis 42 43.3, 189 South Alabama 6 23.4
91% 9 Louisiana State 65 56.9, 218 Northwestern State 14 12.7
89% 108 Southern Methodist 47 41.0, 207 Texas State - San Marc 17 20.6
89% 79 Illinois State 21 54.8, 239 Eastern Illinois 3 18.9
89% 17 Washington 52 42.3, 146 Hawaii 20 11.2
88% 23 Oklahoma State 40 45.3, 140 Tulsa 21 25.8
87% 15 Notre Dame 66 47.5, 145 New Mexico 14 15.6
87% 1 Alabama 47 40.4, 42 South Carolina 23 18.7
86% 116 Louisiana - Lafayette 77 47.8, 251 Texas Southern 6 21.7
86% 36 Boise State 45 48.2, 186 Portland State 10 18.8
86% 7 Penn State 17 39.8, 57 Pittsburgh 10 17.8
85% 5 Ohio State 51 43.1, 95 Indiana 10 18.7
83% 86 Stony Brook 26 42.9, 223 Wagner 10 16.7
83% 45 Northwestern 30 44.9, 163 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 19.9
83% 18 Texas A&M 62 52.0, 216 Lamar 3 15.3
83% 16 Missouri 50 46.2, 118 Southeast Missouri Sta 0 26.0
82% 101 Navy 42 37.2, 171 East Carolina 10 21.9
81% 27 Oregon 35 41.9, 90 Montana 3 26.8
80% 91 Villanova 45 32.1, 238 Bucknell 10 7.8
80% 60 Minnesota 35 34.6, 119 Georgia Southern 32 19.6
79% 6 North Dakota State 47 31.9, 103 Delaware 22 11.6
75% 62 North Dakota 27 55.5, 168 Sam Houston State 23 25.2
74% 58 Army 31 29.4, 199 Texas - San Antonio 13 11.0
73% 8 Central Florida 45 36.8, 33 Stanford 27 23.5
72% 59 Mississippi 40 46.4, 191 Southeast Louisiana 29 28.7
71% 64 California 23 34.8, 111 North Texas 17 19.8
71% 49 Kennesaw State 42 49.5, 247 Alabama State 7 17.4
70% 98 Tennessee 45 28.7, 217 Tennessee - Chattanoog 0 11.3
70% 25 Utah 31 48.3, 143 Idaho State 0 22.4
69% 67 Nebraska 44 33.1, 107 Northern Illinois 8 21.8
69% 29 South Dakota State 38 30.3, 164 Drake 10 10.1
68% 185 Southern Utah 45 36.5, 245 Stephen F. Austin 38 20.6
68% 158 Central Connecticut 42 42.3, 236 Valparaiso 13 25.8
68% 124 North Carolina A&T 27 28.2, 215 Charleston Southern 21 16.7
68% 21 Washington State 31 41.4, 72 Houston 24 30.7
67% 183 William & Mary 38 30.2, 210 Colgate 10 21.2
67% 172 Dayton 34 41.4, 243 Robert Morris 31 25.9
67% 154 Coastal Carolina 46 32.6, 230 Norfolk State 7 20.6
67% 152 North Carolina - Charl 52 42.2, 181 Massachusetts 17 32.9
67% 122 Arkansas 55 32.3, 141 Colorado State 34 24.1
67% 104 Tulane 58 32.9, 173 Missouri State 6 22.7
67% 97 Florida Atlantic 41 36.0, 169 Ball State 31 28.0
67% 92 Wyoming 21 33.7, 182 Idaho 16 19.2
67% 87 Miami - Florida 63 33.8, 188 Bethune - Cookman 0 20.3
67% 71 Toledo 45 49.4, 194 Murray State 0 31.3
67% 70 Cincinnati 35 31.2, 106 Miami - Ohio 13 20.2
67% 69 Virginia Tech 24 37.0, 114 Furman 17 28.4
67% 56 Wake Forest 24 37.1, 81 North Carolina 18 29.8
67% 41 Virginia 31 33.0, 75 Florida State 24 24.2
66% 208 Fordham 29 37.2, 222 Bryant 14 31.6
66% 179 Sacred Heart 56 26.7, 232 Lafayette 40 20.4
66% 149 Central Arkansas 31 34.7, 198 Abilene Christian 30 23.5
66% 134 Louisiana Tech 35 32.2, 197 Bowling Green 7 25.6
66% 132 Southern Illinois 28 36.6, 175 Tennessee - Martin 14 28.9
66% 130 Western Michigan 57 39.6, 148 Georgia State 10 32.9
65% 136 Indiana State 19 31.5, 187 Eastern Kentucky 7 26.5
65% 131 South Florida 55 27.6, 200 South Carolina State 16 19.7
65% 129 Louisville 38 30.9, 150 Western Kentucky 21 27.2
65% 109 Youngstown State 34 34.2, 162 Duquesne 14 21.6
64% 28 West Virginia 44 32.0, 32 North Carolina State 27 28.4
64% 22 Texas Christian 34 26.8, 47 Purdue 13 19.9
63% 46 Duke 41 33.3, 80 Middle Tennessee State 18 30.4
61% 204 Sacramento State 50 36.7, 202 Northern Colorado 0 33.3
59% 224 Marist 26 34.4, 229 Stetson 23 29.9
57% 196 Central Michigan 45 22.0, 190 Akron 24 20.6
56% 14 Iowa 18 25.7, 34 Iowa State 17 24.1
55% 170 Monmouth 38 32.8, 156 Albany 35 32.0
54% 115 Elon 42 28.7, 142 Richmond 20 27.9
50% 102 Eastern Michigan 34 29.2, 127 Illinois 31 29.2
49% 54 Temple 20 37.0, 37 Maryland 17 37.4
47% 120 Montana State 23 22.6, 135 Western Illinois 14 23.3
46% 228 Hampton 41 39.0, 209 Howard 20 40.5
46% 144 Nicholls State 42 30.8, 176 Prairie View 35 31.8
45% 147 Oregon State 45 38.5, 153 California Poly 7 39.5
44% 242 Gardner - Webb 21 23.8, 235 North Carolina Central 12 25.0
43% 249 Jacksonville 30 29.7, 250 Presbyterian 20 32.1
37% 206 McNeese State 17 25.7, 155 Alcorn State 14 30.5
37% 94 Marshall 33 26.7, 53 Ohio 31 29.6
36% 128 Nevada - Reno 19 24.2, 105 Weber State 13 29.8
36% 84 Jacksonville State 49 33.0, 30 Eastern Washington 45 37.9
36% 78 Brigham Young 30 23.0, 43 Southern California 27 27.0
36% 74 Air Force 30 30.2, 66 Colorado 23 37.1
35% 133 Florida International 30 20.6, 113 New Hampshire 17 29.9
35% 89 Towson 45 27.1, 82 Maine 23 32.7
35% 31 Kansas State 31 20.2, 11 Mississippi State 24 27.5
34% 244 Alabama A&M 31 36.0, 226 North Alabama 24 50.1
34% 63 Arizona State 10 18.1, 51 Michigan State 7 24.4
33% 112 Southern Mississippi 47 20.5, 76 Troy State 42 30.8
33% 68 Florida 29 21.5, 35 Kentucky 21 30.0
32% 165 Austin Peay 48 26.7, 125 Mercer 34 37.5
30% 240 Virginia Military 31 23.8, 166 East Tennessee State 24 45.3
28% 177 Liberty 35 25.3, 83 Buffalo 17 35.2
28% 138 The Citadel 27 23.2, 61 Georgia Tech 24 37.2
27% 248 Jackson State 49 10.1, 178 Tennessee State 44 26.9
21% 201 Samford 21 31.9, 110 Wofford 14 50.2
20% 121 Arizona 28 38.4, 44 Texas Tech 14 51.9
15% 117 Kansas 48 15.0, 39 Boston College 24 33.8
5% 256 Houston Baptist 53 12.4, 126 South Dakota 52 57.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.84 50 1.06 14 0.96 18 1.04 11 0.98 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 77 76.1 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net