prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 1 Alabama 49 51.6, 106 Southern Mississippi 7 9.0
96% 33 South Dakota State 43 46.0, 188 Southern Utah 7 11.2
96% 8 North Dakota State 27 43.2, 83 California - Davis 16 16.8
95% 45 North Carolina State 34 43.2, 153 Ball State 23 17.0
95% 4 Ohio State 76 52.3, 118 Miami - Ohio 5 15.8
93% 138 Wofford 49 37.2, 234 Gardner - Webb 10 11.6
93% 27 Miami - Florida 17 41.4, 179 Central Michigan 12 9.4
92% 80 Indiana 38 41.1, 213 Connecticut 3 15.2
92% 42 Virginia 28 43.2, 159 Old Dominion 17 17.4
92% 2 Clemson 52 53.2, 124 North Carolina - Charl 10 7.4
91% 24 James Madison 37 39.7, 180 Tennessee - Chattanoog 14 12.5
90% 189 Bethune - Cookman 22 42.3, 255 Mississippi Valley Sta 6 25.0
88% 103 Alabama - Birmingham 35 36.1, 187 South Alabama 3 18.3
88% 102 Illinois State 40 33.6, 158 Northern Arizona 27 17.2
88% 48 Baylor 21 45.7, 199 Rice 13 20.7
87% 58 Army 52 38.9, 230 Morgan State 21 9.7
87% 16 Florida 34 39.1, 100 Tennessee 3 17.0
86% 6 Louisiana State 66 39.6, 65 Vanderbilt 38 21.0
85% 114 Montana State 56 35.2, 237 Norfolk State 21 7.0
85% 105 Maine 35 35.7, 233 Colgate 21 16.3
84% 90 Jacksonville State 30 53.4, 224 North Alabama 12 27.4
84% 21 Princeton 49 61.4, 245 Butler 7 13.8
83% 110 Montana 47 42.0, 171 Monmouth 27 26.9
83% 9 Missouri 34 39.5, 44 South Carolina 14 26.2
79% 119 Stony Brook 45 30.0, 209 Fordham 10 12.1
77% 126 The Citadel 22 34.0, 202 Charleston Southern 13 21.2
77% 49 Dartmouth 35 49.7, 248 Jacksonville 6 15.3
75% 28 West Virginia 29 36.2, 92 Kansas 24 24.1
74% 176 South Dakota 14 39.3, 238 Northern Colorado 6 27.5
74% 144 Indiana State 16 35.4, 216 Eastern Illinois 6 23.7
73% 151 Albany 36 32.7, 226 Lafayette 7 17.7
73% 135 Coastal Carolina 62 38.9, 208 Massachusetts 28 28.4
73% 112 North Texas 45 36.1, 197 Texas - San Antonio 3 20.0
73% 88 Troy State 35 36.6, 211 Akron 7 19.6
73% 41 Iowa State 72 39.8, 141 Northeast Louisiana 20 18.9
73% 34 Fresno State 34 41.9, 181 Sacramento State 20 16.3
72% 51 Kennesaw State 35 42.2, 185 Missouri State 24 19.6
71% 64 Syracuse 52 40.4, 99 Western Michigan 33 31.3
70% 95 Florida Atlantic 42 42.6, 220 Wagner 7 25.1
70% 10 Washington 45 29.1, 67 Brigham Young 19 17.0
69% 82 Florida State 35 39.1, 113 Louisville 24 30.3
68% 195 Eastern Kentucky 35 28.6, 252 Presbyterian 10 15.0
68% 182 Kent State 62 31.6, 214 Bowling Green 20 25.6
68% 172 New Mexico 55 39.9, 210 New Mexico State 52 29.8
68% 163 Samford 55 41.6, 219 Alabama A&M 21 24.9
68% 79 Northern Iowa 13 41.7, 148 Idaho State 6 21.1
68% 75 Boston College 30 30.7, 154 Rutgers 16 19.0
68% 69 Toledo 41 47.6, 155 Colorado State 35 36.3
68% 3 Georgia 23 34.4, 11 Notre Dame 17 21.6
67% 207 Murray State 59 44.0, 253 Morehead State 7 29.6
67% 204 Campbell 31 37.1, 232 Davidson 29 22.3
67% 165 Sam Houston State 45 46.5, 193 Incarnate Word 6 35.6
67% 145 Nevada - Reno 37 33.0, 227 Texas - El Paso 21 22.3
67% 125 Louisiana Tech 43 29.5, 137 Florida International 31 22.7
67% 122 New Hampshire 27 29.1, 123 Rhode Island 24 21.6
67% 97 Yale 23 38.2, 156 Holy Cross 10 23.7
67% 93 Furman 45 37.8, 134 Mercer 10 28.5
67% 57 Nebraska 42 39.2, 128 Illinois 38 30.6
67% 43 Boise State 30 33.3, 68 Air Force 19 23.0
67% 26 Utah State 23 31.6, 91 San Diego State 17 21.8
66% 186 Southeast Louisiana 45 32.6, 218 Lamar 34 21.8
66% 143 Nicholls State 48 37.7, 242 Stephen F. Austin 30 22.9
66% 20 Mississippi State 28 28.0, 35 Kentucky 13 19.5
65% 162 Liberty 62 36.4, 229 Hampton 27 26.0
64% 169 Cornell 21 34.7, 244 Marist 7 22.8
64% 167 Alcorn State 45 35.9, 174 Prairie View 41 29.9
64% 53 Wake Forest 49 31.4, 98 Elon 7 27.2
64% 32 Appalachian State 34 32.5, 70 North Carolina 31 25.9
64% 19 Texas 36 40.2, 23 Oklahoma State 30 35.0
64% 18 Oregon 21 30.3, 37 Stanford 6 27.9
64% 14 Wisconsin 35 29.9, 15 Michigan 14 23.5
63% 170 Sacred Heart 34 60.3, 240 Long Island 10 51.0
63% 117 Delaware 28 29.4, 140 Pennsylvania 27 23.9
63% 107 Arkansas State 41 33.7, 133 Southern Illinois 28 30.1
63% 104 Hawaii 35 34.2, 142 Central Arkansas 16 31.6
60% 66 California 28 24.3, 63 Mississippi 20 23.1
59% 241 Robert Morris 31 36.4, 239 Virginia Military 21 34.0
59% 149 Columbia 31 24.0, 198 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 20.3
57% 101 Eastern Michigan 34 31.5, 157 Central Connecticut 29 29.9
54% 38 Southern California 30 27.7, 29 Utah 23 27.2
53% 225 Howard 24 36.5, 247 Delaware State 9 35.6
53% 196 Abilene Christian 17 24.9, 201 McNeese State 10 23.9
53% 72 Tulane 38 30.6, 59 Houston 31 30.1
51% 200 Florida A&M 27 30.8, 178 Southern 21 30.6
48% 222 Brown 35 31.7, 231 Bryant 30 32.5
44% 161 Duquesne 35 29.4, 164 Dayton 31 31.9
42% 46 Michigan State 31 16.0, 52 Northwestern 10 18.4
37% 147 San Diego 31 31.5, 89 Harvard 23 37.1
37% 139 Tulsa 24 21.4, 94 Wyoming 21 24.0
37% 108 Villanova 52 27.4, 76 Towson 45 30.4
37% 12 Auburn 28 25.6, 17 Texas A&M 20 28.5
36% 250 Alabama State 23 20.5, 212 Grambling 20 26.3
36% 206 Texas State - San Marc 37 26.3, 175 Georgia State 34 29.9
36% 177 East Carolina 19 22.8, 168 William & Mary 7 27.7
36% 73 Colorado 34 24.1, 62 Arizona State 31 27.8
35% 183 East Tennessee State 20 26.8, 136 Austin Peay 14 33.9
33% 223 Tennessee Tech 38 20.9, 152 Western Illinois 24 38.9
33% 127 Buffalo 38 25.1, 55 Temple 22 34.9
32% 256 Houston Baptist 48 31.3, 217 Northwestern State 21 43.1
32% 85 Southern Methodist 41 21.6, 40 Texas Christian 38 37.7
24% 86 Louisiana - Lafayette 45 30.5, 54 Ohio 25 39.7
24% 50 Pittsburgh 35 23.5, 7 Central Florida 34 35.0
23% 184 Idaho 35 22.9, 39 Eastern Washington 27 48.7
15% 190 San Jose State 31 20.5, 115 Arkansas 24 38.5
14% 251 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 37 27.4, 192 Tennessee State 31 48.9
8% 109 California - Los Angel 67 19.3, 25 Washington State 63 40.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.35 49 1.12 18 1.12 15 1.01 12 0.98 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 84 76.3 1.10
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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