2019 Week 5 (26-28 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 97%   8 Central Florida         56 58.3,   217 Connecticut             21  9.2
 97%   1 Alabama                 59 48.9,    76 Mississippi             31 10.2
 95% 173 Alcorn State            45 41.9,   253 Mississippi Valley Sta  19 15.6
 95%  18 Iowa                    48 38.8,   115 Middle Tennessee State   3 15.9
 95%   6 Oklahoma                55 51.4,    56 Texas Tech              16 28.2
 95%   3 Clemson                 21 42.5,    78 North Carolina          20 13.5
 94% 108 Southern Mississippi    31 41.9,   236 Texas - El Paso         13 13.7
 93% 135 Wofford                 51 39.9,   238 Virginia Military       36 17.0
 93%  66 Air Force               41 41.8,   183 San Jose State          24 18.4
 93%  64 Youngstown State        45 47.4,   225 Robert Morris           10 13.5
 93%  21 Michigan                52 39.5,   159 Rutgers                  0  9.2
 93%  19 Utah State              34 54.9,   166 Colorado State          24 25.3
 92%  41 Fresno State            30 46.8,   198 New Mexico State        17 22.3
 91%  43 Memphis                 35 36.1,    96 Navy                    23 24.1
 91%  22 Texas A&M               31 40.4,   136 Arkansas                27 18.5
 91%   2 Ohio State              48 47.8,    46 Nebraska                 7 26.8
 90%  62 Furman                  17 39.9,   179 East Tennessee State    10 18.4
 90%  17 Princeton               56 50.5,   243 Bucknell                23 11.6
 88%   7 Wisconsin               24 35.8,    74 Northwestern            15 10.9
 86% 126 North Carolina A&T      37 39.7,   252 Delaware State           0  9.7
 86%  93 Wyoming                 53 34.5,   167 Nevada - Las Vegas      17 20.8
 86%  28 James Madison           45 37.6,   114 Elon                    10 20.0
 85%  59 Syracuse                41 32.8,   168 Holy Cross               3 19.8
 85%  42 Dartmouth               38 41.9,   208 Colgate                  3  9.2
 81% 146 Liberty                 17 36.9,   175 New Mexico              10 26.6
 81% 106 Western Michigan        31 41.0,   172 Central Michigan        15 26.9
 81%   9 Washington              28 36.9,    33 Southern California     14 22.7
 79% 100 Montana State           49 38.8,   153 Northern Arizona        31 25.5
 75% 180 Eastern Kentucky        42 36.3,   214 Tennessee State         16 21.2
 75%  45 Stanford                31 37.0,   130 Oregon State            28 24.1
 75%  39 Pittsburgh              17 32.2,   125 Delaware                14 20.3
 75%  12 Notre Dame              35 33.2,    49 Virginia                20 17.3
 73%  23 Florida                 38 36.4,    73 Towson                   0 23.0
 72%  36 Texas Christian         51 29.5,    82 Kansas                  14 15.6
 71% 171 Southeast Louisiana     44 40.6,   234 Northwestern State      27 29.3
 71%  58 Eastern Washington      35 39.6,   124 North Dakota            20 25.9
 69% 197 Drake                   41 24.8,   250 Marist                  17 14.9
 68% 221 North Alabama           41 37.5,   254 Presbyterian            21 23.1
 68% 194 Bethune - Cookman       37 34.8,   229 Howard                  29 28.5
 68% 155 Northeast Louisiana     30 37.8,   207 South Alabama           17 27.5
 68% 121 Louisiana Tech          23 29.7,   188 Rice                    20 18.7
 68%  40 Appalachian State       56 37.1,   102 Coastal Carolina        37 23.0
 68%  29 Michigan State          40 25.7,    79 Indiana                 31 12.4
 67% 203 Saint Francis - Pennsy  16 27.0,   240 Bryant                   6 19.8
 67% 186 Southern                31 42.1,   235 Arkansas - Pine Bluff    7 32.9
 67% 182 Tennessee - Chattanoog  60 35.8,   193 Western Carolina        36 26.2
 67%  94 Harvard                 42 42.6,   220 Brown                    7 15.2
 67%  65 Villanova               33 35.5,   105 Maine                   17 24.4
 67%  10 Auburn                  56 28.4,    26 Mississippi State       23 18.4
 66% 174 Prairie View            42 34.4,   204 Grambling               36 29.0
 66% 152 Idaho State             51 35.9,   191 Portland State          24 28.9
 66% 138 Albany                  39 26.9,   158 William & Mary          31 20.1
 66%  80 Vanderbilt              24 28.8,   117 Northern Illinois       18 22.5
 66%  61 Arizona                 20 37.1,    95 California - Los Angel  17 29.8
 66%  52 Southern Methodist      48 38.9,   128 South Florida           21 31.4
 66%  20 Oklahoma State          26 36.3,    32 Kansas State            13 29.5
 65% 142 Sam Houston State       28 29.5,   200 McNeese State           17 23.8
 65% 139 Pennsylvania            28 33.3,   222 Lafayette               24 19.2
 64% 202 Florida A&M             30 30.0,   231 Norfolk State           28 24.0
 64% 181 Tennessee - Martin      40 28.3,   177 Murray State             7 24.5
 64% 133 New Hampshire           23 25.5,   164 Duquesne                 6 19.2
 64% 103 Hawaii                  54 38.4,   157 Nevada - Reno            3 34.5
 64%  99 Yale                    27 38.5,   176 Cornell                 16 23.6
 64%  83 Toledo                  28 35.4,    85 Brigham Young           21 32.1
 64%  51 Louisiana - Lafayette   37 36.7,   111 Georgia Southern        24 33.6
 64%  25 Utah                    38 30.8,    27 Washington State        13 27.1
 64%  13 Penn State              59 33.3,    30 Maryland                 0 29.7
 63% 251 Houston Baptist         68 38.3,   255 Texas Southern          31 34.9
 63% 140 Samford                 61 39.3,   134 The Citadel             55 36.5
 63% 116 Stony Brook             31 29.3,   127 Rhode Island            27 25.7
 63%  92 Florida Atlantic        45 35.6,   131 North Carolina - Charl  27 32.6
 63%  81 Temple                  24 28.9,    72 Georgia Tech             2 26.8
 63%  63 Houston                 46 36.6,    97 North Texas             25 34.0
 63%  34 Duke                    45 29.5,    69 Virginia Tech           10 27.3
 60% 161 California Poly         24 34.4,   195 Southern Utah           21 33.2
 57% 219 Wagner                  24 51.9,   241 Long Island             14 47.7
 56%  77 Cincinnati              52 22.9,   104 Marshall                14 22.0
 56%  47 South Carolina          24 26.1,    38 Kentucky                 7 25.1
 54% 212 Massachusetts           37 33.5,   223 Akron                   29 33.0
 53%  37 Wake Forest             27 31.9,    68 Boston College          24 31.5

 49% 107 Weber State             29 19.0,    89 Northern Iowa           17 19.2
 47%  54 Minnesota               38 31.6,    67 Purdue                  31 32.0
 45%  84 Florida State           31 30.7,    53 North Carolina State    13 31.4
 41% 205 Tennessee Tech          40 28.7,   227 Eastern Illinois        29 30.5
 37% 233 Stephen F. Austin       24 28.8,   218 Lamar                   17 32.3
 37% 210 Incarnate Word          31 33.7,   187 Abilene Christian       24 36.5
 37% 145 Miami - Ohio            34 29.3,   113 Buffalo                 20 31.5
 37%  90 Montana                 45 30.0,    86 California - Davis      20 33.1
 36% 245 North Carolina Central  27 22.5,   230 Morgan State            17 26.6
 36% 144 Austin Peay             52 28.1,   112 Jacksonville State      33 33.4
 36%  48 Arizona State           24 18.9,    50 California              17 23.1
 35% 118 Arkansas State          50 24.8,    91 Troy State              43 32.9
 35%  57 Baylor                  23 27.2,    24 Iowa State              21 34.9
 34% 216 Georgetown              24 14.0,   154 Columbia                10 28.3
 34% 211 Fordham                 23 28.0,   151 Richmond                16 34.5
 34% 206 Campbell                34 19.1,   137 Mercer                  27 32.5
 34% 184 East Carolina           24 26.6,   160 Old Dominion            21 31.2
 33% 169 Western Kentucky        20 21.3,   101 Alabama - Birmingham    13 28.8
 32% 247 Northern Colorado       27 22.2,   170 Idaho                   24 33.2
 28% 196 Texas State - San Marc  24 21.3,   132 Nicholls State           3 35.6

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                9 1.01  54 1.11  10 1.22  10 1.18  17 1.07   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 100  80  71.9 1.11

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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