prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 26 Texas A&M 45 48.6, 214 Texas - San Antonio 14 9.0
96% 187 Grambling 55 49.1, 254 Texas Southern 20 18.6
95% 150 Liberty 63 47.1, 248 Massachusetts 21 24.1
95% 50 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 42.5, 195 Texas State - San Marc 3 15.5
94% 178 Florida A&M 52 39.7, 249 Delaware State 30 17.3
94% 51 Princeton 21 41.4, 208 Cornell 7 16.3
94% 44 South Dakota State 35 39.9, 220 Missouri State 14 10.9
94% 30 Navy 56 43.4, 202 Connecticut 10 16.1
93% 2 Clemson 59 45.8, 105 Wofford 14 10.5
92% 134 North Texas 52 41.1, 240 Texas - El Paso 26 19.2
92% 9 Auburn 20 39.0, 62 Mississippi 14 16.3
90% 196 Hampton 40 37.7, 255 Presbyterian 17 12.8
90% 15 Central Florida 44 47.2, 59 Houston 29 28.3
89% 151 Southeast Louisiana 47 43.3, 225 Stephen F. Austin 30 23.8
89% 97 Montana State 42 41.3, 179 Southern Utah 7 23.6
89% 68 Illinois 38 37.4, 183 Rutgers 10 19.3
89% 47 Boise State 52 38.8, 138 San Jose State 42 22.4
89% 27 Cincinnati 46 35.7, 173 East Carolina 43 14.8
88% 45 South Carolina 24 33.6, 132 Vanderbilt 7 17.6
88% 20 Notre Dame 21 40.6, 77 Virginia Tech 20 21.6
87% 199 Davidson 27 37.9, 247 Valparaiso 21 22.9
87% 38 Air Force 17 35.6, 122 Army 13 19.0
86% 67 Towson 31 38.2, 171 Delaware 24 22.2
86% 12 Michigan 38 37.0, 78 Maryland 7 21.6
85% 185 Dayton 49 45.9, 244 Morehead State 35 31.5
85% 152 Florida International 24 30.9, 209 Old Dominion 17 17.8
85% 54 Montana 38 40.3, 164 Portland State 23 23.0
85% 22 North Dakota State 56 34.8, 90 Youngstown State 17 21.2
82% 182 McNeese State 30 39.4, 229 Northwestern State 20 23.8
82% 160 Pennsylvania 38 42.3, 216 Brown 36 25.3
82% 113 Southern Illinois 23 31.5, 215 Indiana State 14 20.2
78% 188 Sacred Heart 24 34.0, 242 Bryant 17 22.2
78% 109 Eastern Washington 66 49.2, 161 Northern Arizona 38 36.1
77% 205 Southern 35 31.3, 232 Alabama A&M 31 18.7
77% 118 Central Connecticut 27 25.3, 213 Wagner 13 11.7
77% 42 Tulane 38 39.6, 98 Tulsa 26 26.2
73% 174 Central Arkansas 45 29.2, 233 Lamar 17 19.6
72% 181 Nicholls State 27 38.5, 219 Incarnate Word 23 30.3
72% 142 Southeast Missouri Sta 32 36.2, 221 Tennessee State 13 25.3
69% 46 Indiana 34 26.0, 104 Northwestern 3 15.0
68% 117 Yale 45 33.2, 157 Columbia 10 24.0
68% 29 Kansas State 38 32.6, 85 Kansas 10 23.5
67% 236 Bowling Green 35 26.1, 253 Akron 6 17.6
67% 130 San Diego 49 33.5, 172 Drake 7 23.8
67% 96 North Carolina A&T 22 31.2, 176 South Carolina State 20 20.7
67% 60 Tennessee 30 31.0, 108 Alabama - Birmingham 7 21.9
67% 33 Baylor 17 34.9, 64 West Virginia 14 27.9
66% 238 North Carolina Central 28 32.8, 251 Howard 6 26.5
66% 227 Alabama State 27 27.6, 250 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 21.4
66% 206 Robert Morris 28 34.1, 252 Long Island 17 15.9
66% 177 Duquesne 30 19.8, 201 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 11.1
66% 139 Colorado State 37 39.5, 148 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 35.5
66% 119 Marshall 20 25.5, 186 Rice 7 20.2
66% 114 Arkansas State 48 40.3, 156 Northeast Louisiana 41 34.4
66% 80 Furman 35 28.1, 149 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 20.2
66% 56 Mississippi State 54 32.4, 123 Arkansas 24 24.9
66% 48 Wake Forest 44 33.5, 86 North Carolina State 10 27.5
66% 43 Pittsburgh 20 25.6, 102 Georgia Tech 10 19.1
66% 11 Oregon 56 32.8, 24 Southern California 24 29.2
65% 127 Tennessee - Martin 22 28.8, 166 Jacksonville State 17 21.5
65% 124 Coastal Carolina 36 35.5, 135 Troy State 35 30.4
65% 66 California - Los Angel 31 33.8, 84 Colorado 14 29.1
65% 40 Dartmouth 9 29.7, 91 Harvard 6 24.4
65% 31 Memphis 54 42.0, 28 Southern Methodist 48 37.7
65% 10 Georgia 24 26.4, 13 Florida 17 22.0
64% 224 Stetson 27 31.5, 246 Jacksonville 24 25.7
64% 207 Charleston Southern 30 28.4, 223 Gardner - Webb 27 24.3
64% 168 Holy Cross 24 27.8, 194 Lehigh 17 24.5
64% 70 Purdue 31 31.1, 69 Nebraska 27 27.8
63% 226 Norfolk State 48 29.1, 231 Morgan State 0 26.5
63% 200 Nevada - Reno 21 33.1, 193 New Mexico 10 30.0
63% 146 The Citadel 31 22.4, 189 East Tennessee State 27 20.1
63% 72 Florida Atlantic 35 26.2, 131 Western Kentucky 24 23.5
63% 37 Oklahoma State 34 34.0, 32 Texas Christian 27 31.9
62% 169 Idaho 21 32.4, 170 California Poly 9 30.5
60% 111 Buffalo 43 28.0, 128 Eastern Michigan 14 27.0
58% 245 Marist 37 23.5, 241 Butler 27 22.6
58% 212 Lafayette 38 26.3, 192 Fordham 34 25.4
51% 95 Fresno State 41 35.8, 106 Hawaii 38 35.6
50% 190 Mercer 36 41.1, 165 Samford 33 41.0
49% 235 Jackson State 21 32.9, 211 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 12 33.1
41% 129 Austin Peay 28 28.1, 144 Eastern Kentucky 21 29.3
40% 8 Utah 33 23.2, 14 Washington 28 24.8
37% 222 North Alabama 25 28.1, 191 Campbell 24 32.5
37% 154 North Carolina - Charl 34 33.3, 120 Middle Tennessee State 20 35.8
37% 141 Central Michigan 48 25.4, 115 Northern Illinois 10 28.2
37% 116 Northern Iowa 27 16.2, 137 Illinois State 10 19.5
36% 126 New Hampshire 28 21.6, 58 Villanova 20 25.4
35% 155 Richmond 30 23.8, 101 Stony Brook 10 28.3
35% 82 Boston College 58 27.4, 83 Syracuse 27 31.8
35% 74 Weber State 36 25.9, 49 Sacramento State 17 31.4
35% 41 Virginia 38 25.6, 35 North Carolina 31 30.4
34% 243 Western Carolina 43 31.1, 204 Virginia Military 35 39.3
34% 237 Western Illinois 38 23.3, 167 South Dakota 34 30.6
34% 88 Brigham Young 42 22.1, 73 Utah State 14 29.0
34% 63 Miami - Florida 27 21.7, 53 Florida State 10 27.7
33% 143 William & Mary 31 21.1, 107 Elon 29 30.5
33% 136 Maine 47 25.4, 103 Albany 31 33.5
30% 218 Colgate 24 11.8, 180 Georgetown 14 22.8
26% 203 Tennessee Tech 17 30.2, 184 Murray State 7 40.8
24% 100 Oregon State 56 31.4, 76 Arizona 38 40.3
14% 234 Northern Colorado 26 22.8, 163 Idaho State 20 37.8
14% 145 Monmouth 45 24.7, 71 Kennesaw State 21 41.9
9% 110 Georgia Southern 24 16.8, 21 Appalachian State 21 38.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.29 53 1.04 10 1.06 20 1.04 14 0.99 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 104 80 76.3 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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