2019 Week 11 (5-9 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 97%  78 Furman                  60 44.5,   214 Virginia Military       21 17.0
 97%  58 Mississippi             41 46.1,   207 New Mexico State         3 16.4
 97%  27 Cincinnati              48 46.3,   208 Connecticut              3 10.2
 97%  16 North Dakota State      57 52.9,   235 Western Illinois        21  3.6
 97%   1 Ohio State              73 56.8,    86 Maryland                14 11.2
 96% 181 Nicholls State          48 47.0,   255 Houston Baptist         27 18.9
 96% 120 Army                    63 54.2,   250 Massachusetts            7 17.0
 96%  13 Florida                 56 42.3,   150 Vanderbilt               0  7.7
 95% 218 Southern                58 44.8,   255 Houston Baptist          7 18.8
 95%   3 Clemson                 55 41.8,   117 North Carolina State    10 12.2
 94% 175 South Carolina State    62 44.2,   251 Howard                  21 17.8
 93% 124 Southern Illinois       37 37.9,   225 Missouri State          14 17.8
 93%  19 James Madison           54 35.1,   109 New Hampshire           16 12.7
 92% 108 Northern Iowa           17 30.2,   219 Indiana State            9  8.9
 92%  93 Montana State           45 36.6,   226 Northern Colorado       14 16.0
 92%  53 Montana                 42 40.6,   156 Idaho                   17 16.7
 92%  26 Southern Methodist      59 50.5,   149 East Carolina           51 28.2
 90% 187 Drake                   28 35.0,   246 Jacksonville            14 15.4
 89% 217 Alabama State           27 42.4,   254 Texas Southern          21 24.4
 89%  11 Georgia                 27 33.2,    31 Missouri                 0 18.4
 89%   6 Oklahoma                42 43.7,    18 Iowa State              41 28.5
 88% 178 Dayton                  59 41.3,   241 Marist                  35 25.0
 88% 166 Prairie View            37 43.7,   215 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   20 29.0
 87%  68 Florida Atlantic        37 36.3,   155 Florida International    7 22.5
 86% 116 Central Connecticut     38 28.6,   200 Saint Francis - Pennsy  31 12.2
 86%  14 Washington              19 42.5,    69 Oregon State             7 26.6
 85% 118 Monmouth                49 44.7,   222 North Alabama           38 23.5
 85%  71 Villanova               35 36.3,   137 Richmond                28 22.3
 85%  36 Virginia                33 31.3,   101 Georgia Tech            28 17.3
 84%  52 Sacramento State        38 44.1,   171 Northern Arizona        34 28.8
 82%  84 Yale                    59 45.0,   210 Brown                   35 27.9
 81%  73 Brigham Young           31 33.0,   139 Liberty                 24 19.5
 80%  49 Boise State             20 32.2,    83 Wyoming                 17 18.7
 78%  56 Weber State             30 33.5,   144 North Dakota            27 19.5
 77% 131 Toledo                  35 35.9,   157 Kent State              33 25.0
 77%   8 Wisconsin               24 25.2,    17 Iowa                    22 13.8
 76% 106 San Diego               51 38.1,   220 Stetson                  7 24.9
 75% 147 North Carolina - Charl  28 37.6,   239 Texas - El Paso         21 25.2
 72%  87 Eastern Washington      48 46.7,   177 Idaho State              5 36.3
 71% 102 Wofford                 41 37.0,   190 Mercer                   7 27.8
 71%  88 Louisiana Tech          52 40.1,   133 North Texas             17 29.8
 69%  51 Miami - Florida         52 34.4,    65 Louisville              27 24.0
 68%  80 Western Michigan        35 38.9,   110 Ball State              31 31.0
 67% 114 Hawaii                  42 45.6,   136 San Jose State          40 37.4
 67% 105 Kennesaw State          38 35.2,   186 Campbell                35 23.5
 67%  98 California - Davis      45 36.5,   159 Portland State          28 28.2
 67%  41 Louisiana - Lafayette   48 36.4,   134 Coastal Carolina         7 25.8
 66% 212 Davidson                52 32.2,   245 Butler                  10 26.6
 66% 195 Sacred Heart            41 25.9,   216 Wagner                   7 17.8
 66% 174 Pennsylvania            21 29.8,   206 Cornell                 20 21.8
 66% 140 William & Mary          55 33.3,   167 Rhode Island            19 26.7
 66%  94 Southern Mississippi    37 30.6,   128 Alabama - Birmingham     2 23.7
 65% 230 Northwestern State      34 32.7,   242 Lamar                   13 28.5
 65% 193 Texas State - San Marc  30 21.2,   221 South Alabama           28 15.6
 65% 165 Sam Houston State       24 28.9,   199 Abilene Christian       10 24.4
 65%  29 Southern California     31 30.8,    59 Arizona State           26 27.0
 65%  24 Texas                   27 34.1,    22 Kansas State            24 28.4
 64% 233 Alabama A&M             48 31.0,   234 Jackson State           43 25.7
 64% 146 Southeast Missouri Sta  38 27.9,   151 Eastern Kentucky        31 23.9
 64% 107 Albany                  21 29.8,   158 Delaware                17 26.2
 63% 209 Colgate                 24 27.3,   188 Fordham                 13 24.4
 63%  82 Temple                  17 27.7,   121 South Florida            7 25.3
 63%  74 Purdue                  24 21.5,   132 Northwestern            22 18.3
 62%  76 Towson                  31 29.3,   125 Stony Brook             14 27.1
 62%  47 Dartmouth               27 27.4,    57 Princeton               10 25.3
 59%  25 Notre Dame              38 29.0,    33 Duke                     7 27.7
 58% 126 Austin Peay             38 28.5,   119 Tennessee - Martin      24 27.4
 57% 227 Stephen F. Austin       31 36.0,   224 Incarnate Word          24 35.2
 52% 205 Charleston Southern     27 26.8,   189 Hampton                 20 26.4

 50%  55 Virginia Tech           36 33.6,    35 Wake Forest             17 33.7
 49% 145 Tennessee - Chattanoog  35 35.1,   169 Samford                 27 35.3
 48% 130 Troy State              49 29.6,    89 Georgia Southern        28 29.9
 46%  30 Appalachian State       20 25.4,    46 South Carolina          15 25.9
 45% 198 Norfolk State           38 23.7,   237 North Carolina Central  21 24.5
 43% 183 Grambling               19 26.4,   153 Alcorn State            16 27.4
 39% 231 Eastern Illinois        49 25.7,   229 Tennessee State         38 27.3
 38% 142 Southeast Louisiana     34 30.5,   161 Central Arkansas         0 32.2
 38% 127 Western Kentucky        45 24.1,   138 Arkansas                19 25.7
 37% 162 Northeast Louisiana     45 38.9,   122 Georgia State           31 42.3
 37%  64 Florida State           38 31.2,    70 Boston College          31 33.4
 36% 104 Colorado                16 22.9,    67 Stanford                13 27.5
 36%  99 Utah State              37 26.9,    97 Fresno State            35 30.5
 36%  66 Texas Tech              38 27.9,    75 West Virginia           17 31.4
 35% 232 Bucknell                20 24.4,   192 Lehigh                  10 28.4
 35% 103 Maine                   31 27.5,   100 Elon                    17 32.5
 35%  54 Tennessee               17 19.8,    50 Kentucky                13 24.4
 35%  40 Baylor                  29 25.4,    37 Texas Christian         23 30.5
 34% 213 Robert Morris           41 20.3,   170 Duquesne                21 26.8
 34% 211 Texas - San Antonio     24 20.3,   201 Old Dominion            23 27.7
 34% 197 Tennessee Tech          37 28.7,   160 Jacksonville State      27 36.8
 34% 168 South Dakota            56 31.2,   113 Youngstown State        21 37.9
 34%  72 California              33 22.0,    21 Washington State        20 28.6
 33% 244 Morehead State          27 28.7,   243 Valparaiso              21 34.2
 33%   4 Louisiana State         46 28.6,     2 Alabama                 41 39.0
 30%  61 Illinois                37 18.4,    38 Michigan State          34 29.0
 30%  20 Minnesota               31 23.3,     5 Penn State              26 31.9
 28% 256 Presbyterian            24 21.1,   223 Gardner - Webb          14 32.2
 28% 176 Columbia                17 20.9,    90 Harvard                 10 31.5
 27% 236 Western Carolina        23 20.1,   182 East Tennessee State    20 30.3
 24% 135 Miami - Ohio            24 26.7,    85 Ohio                    21 36.8
 18% 203 Lafayette               23 18.5,   164 Holy Cross              20 30.1
 15% 154 Illinois State          27 10.4,    60 South Dakota State      18 28.5
 12% 249 Delaware State          16 20.2,   194 Bethune - Cookman       13 35.2
  9% 202 Nevada - Reno           17  8.8,    79 San Diego State         13 31.6
  9%  92 Tulsa                   34 27.1,    15 Central Florida         31 47.1
  6% 247 Morgan State            22 12.3,    91 North Carolina A&T      16 40.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               10 0.73  44 0.84  14 0.86  18 0.97  20 0.90   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106  69  78.8 0.88

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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