2019 Week 14 (26-30 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 97%   7 Penn State              27 48.9,   171 Rutgers                  6  5.2
 96%  74 Buffalo                 49 44.2,   232 Bowling Green            7 13.6
 96%  18 Central Florida         34 46.1,   125 South Florida            7 21.3
 96%   8 Georgia                 52 35.0,   133 Georgia Tech             7  8.9
 96%   2 Clemson                 38 39.5,    57 South Carolina           3 11.4
 95%  98 Ohio                    52 41.6,   251 Akron                    3 12.0
 95%  26 Louisiana - Lafayette   31 49.5,   146 Northeast Louisiana     30 22.8
 95%  11 Oregon                  24 48.5,    56 Oregon State            10 23.3
 95%   6 Utah                    45 37.7,    84 Colorado                15  7.4
 94%  76 Temple                  49 40.4,   217 Connecticut             17 12.4
 93%  89 Louisiana Tech          41 41.0,   195 Texas - San Antonio     27 18.3
 93%  41 Tennessee               28 36.0,   162 Vanderbilt              10 12.0
 93%   9 Florida                 40 38.5,    59 Florida State           17 15.7
 91% 132 Liberty                 49 41.7,   210 New Mexico State        28 23.8
 88%  38 Boise State             31 40.4,   131 Colorado State          24 25.8
 88%   4 Louisiana State         50 44.4,    25 Texas A&M                7 26.2
 87%  62 Missouri                24 36.7,   145 Arkansas                14 20.7
 87%  23 Baylor                  61 35.4,    96 Kansas                   6 21.5
 86%  28 Texas                   49 39.1,    55 Texas Tech              24 27.2
 86%  14 Notre Dame              45 33.4,    78 Stanford                24 17.7
 85% 137 Coastal Carolina        24 34.6,   199 Texas State - San Marc  21 19.8
 85%  47 Michigan State          19 34.0,   130 Maryland                16 17.8
 80%  44 Arizona State           24 37.2,   101 Arizona                 14 23.5
 79%  46 Air Force               20 27.7,    99 Wyoming                  6 16.2
 77%  75 Western Kentucky        31 31.1,   117 Middle Tennessee State  26 20.0
 76%  30 Appalachian State       48 40.0,   107 Troy State              13 27.4
 75% 134 Utah State              38 34.2,   197 New Mexico              25 23.4
 73% 103 Georgia Southern        38 38.7,   122 Georgia State           10 27.5
 72% 173 Rice                    30 29.6,   235 Texas - El Paso         16 18.7
 69% 108 Marshall                30 28.2,   150 Florida International   27 19.3
 69%  39 North Carolina          41 34.8,   135 North Carolina State    10 24.7
 69%  21 Memphis                 34 35.6,    40 Cincinnati              24 26.8
 68% 156 Prairie View            20 33.8,   226 Alabama State           17 25.4
 67%  65 Florida Atlantic        34 34.5,    88 Southern Mississippi    17 26.8
 67%  17 Washington              31 38.1,    27 Washington State        13 29.7
 67%  13 Oklahoma                34 41.6,    35 Oklahoma State          16 34.2
 67%   1 Ohio State              56 36.0,     5 Michigan                27 27.4
 66% 111 Central Michigan        49 36.6,   149 Toledo                   7 30.1
 66%  43 Kentucky                45 34.1,    53 Louisville              13 28.5
 65% 170 Illinois State          24 24.5,   136 Southeast Missouri Sta   6 18.7
 65% 138 North Carolina - Charl  38 30.9,   211 Old Dominion            22 25.5
 65%  54 Mississippi State       21 30.6,    52 Mississippi             20 26.0
 65%  32 Navy                    56 33.2,    67 Houston                 41 28.2
 65%  19 Iowa                    27 24.8,    42 Nebraska                24 19.7
 64% 106 Ball State              41 32.5,   129 Miami - Ohio            27 28.3
 64%  79 Monmouth                44 32.3,   139 Holy Cross              27 28.2
 64%  29 Southern Methodist      37 45.9,    49 Tulane                  20 40.7
 63%  86 Tulsa                   49 34.0,   123 East Carolina           24 31.1
 62%  37 Indiana                 44 31.0,    70 Purdue                  41 29.1
 62%  10 Wisconsin               38 30.2,    16 Minnesota               17 28.1
 61% 140 Alabama - Birmingham    26 29.1,   159 North Texas             21 27.7
 55%  95 Kennesaw State          28 30.3,    68 Wofford                 21 29.5
 50% 119 San Jose State          17 36.4,   126 Fresno State            16 36.4
 47%  64 California              28 24.9,    72 California - Los Angel  18 25.3
 47%  34 Kansas State            27 27.8,    20 Iowa State              17 28.3

 38% 114 Hawaii                  52 27.8,   100 Army                    31 29.9
 38%  36 Virginia                39 29.1,    22 Virginia Tech           30 30.9
 37% 186 Southern                30 25.5,   158 Grambling               28 27.8
 37% 118 San Diego State         13 16.5,    77 Brigham Young            3 19.0
 37%  12 Auburn                  48 23.4,     3 Alabama                 45 26.9
 36% 175 Nevada - Las Vegas      33 26.3,   176 Nevada - Reno           30 30.1
 35% 128 Kent State              34 28.6,   124 Eastern Michigan        26 33.5
 35% 102 Albany                  42 27.7,    92 Central Connecticut     14 32.6
 35%  94 Syracuse                39 31.2,    45 Wake Forest             30 35.4
 34% 163 Northern Illinois       17 29.3,    85 Western Michigan        14 35.3
 34% 113 Southeast Louisiana     45 27.8,    91 Villanova               44 37.2
 34%  97 Duke                    27 21.5,    50 Miami - Florida         17 27.8
 34%  93 Austin Peay             42 25.7,    82 Furman                   6 31.2
 34%  69 Boston College          26 23.5,    66 Pittsburgh              19 29.3
 33% 189 South Alabama           34 23.6,   112 Arkansas State          30 32.1
 33% 184 Nicholls State          24 24.4,   127 North Dakota             6 33.2
 33% 144 Northern Iowa           17 23.1,    83 San Diego                3 32.6
 32% 142 Northwestern            29 16.0,    48 Illinois                10 28.5
 16%  81 West Virginia           20 18.0,    33 Texas Christian         17 32.7

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 0.47  40 0.84   6 1.33  10 1.05  14 1.06   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  74  52  54.5 0.95

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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