prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
96% 2 Clemson 62 42.6, 34 Virginia 17 15.1
95% 27 North Dakota State 37 42.9, 144 Nicholls State 13 10.6
91% 15 James Madison 66 47.0, 71 Monmouth 21 25.1
89% 45 Boise State 31 44.3, 89 Hawaii 10 28.2
86% 1 Ohio State 34 40.1, 8 Wisconsin 21 24.0
85% 54 Florida Atlantic 49 32.7, 139 Alabama - Birmingham 6 18.5
80% 19 Memphis 29 37.0, 42 Cincinnati 24 26.1
74% 65 Montana 73 38.8, 100 Southeast Louisiana 28 27.6
66% 158 Alcorn State 39 29.6, 172 Southern 24 23.2
66% 25 Appalachian State 45 30.4, 36 Louisiana - Lafayette 38 23.0
65% 12 Oklahoma 30 35.3, 16 Baylor 23 30.3
64% 150 Illinois State 24 22.7, 168 Central Arkansas 14 18.5
64% 67 Weber State 26 31.2, 95 Kennesaw State 20 27.3
64% 57 Montana State 47 29.9, 82 Albany 21 25.9
62% 3 Louisiana State 37 30.4, 7 Georgia 10 28.6
54% 52 Austin Peay 42 28.8, 63 Sacramento State 28 28.1
35% 11 Oregon 37 22.3, 4 Utah 15 27.2
34% 136 Miami - Ohio 26 25.9, 90 Central Michigan 21 32.3
29% 114 Northern Iowa 13 14.9, 78 South Dakota State 10 26.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.85 9 1.20 2 0.69 4 1.17 3 1.07 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 19 16 14.0 1.14
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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