prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
95% 29 North Dakota State 9 33.1, 152 Illinois State 3 8.2
94% 11 James Madison 17 39.6, 101 Northern Iowa 0 13.2
68% 30 Navy 31 33.4, 104 Army 7 23.7
61% 42 Montana State 24 30.8, 36 Austin Peay 10 29.2
42% 69 Weber State 17 29.7, 39 Montana 10 30.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 2 1.56 0 0.00 0 0.00 2 1.06 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 5 4 3.7 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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