prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
76% 37 Texas Christian 39 64.9, 254 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 16.8
72% 5 North Dakota State 57 58.7, 239 Butler 10 14.9
70% 24 Washington State 58 62.1, 206 New Mexico State 7 25.9
70% 15 Texas A&M 41 57.3, 208 Texas State - San Marc 7 19.1
69% 175 Tennessee State 26 55.5, 255 Mississippi Valley Sta 20 27.1
69% 102 Delaware 31 51.0, 248 Delaware State 13 17.5
69% 100 Marshall 56 54.8, 242 Virginia Military 17 25.1
69% 72 Baylor 56 53.4, 243 Stephen F. Austin 17 23.6
69% 39 Army 14 51.5, 214 Rice 7 19.0
69% 18 Central Florida 62 57.1, 203 Florida A&M 0 24.2
69% 10 Penn State 79 57.1, 188 Idaho 7 21.2
69% 6 Ohio State 45 58.7, 89 Florida Atlantic 21 30.7
69% 4 Oklahoma 49 64.8, 74 Houston 31 41.3
69% 1 Clemson 52 53.1, 45 Georgia Tech 14 25.3
68% 136 Richmond 38 55.2, 249 Jacksonville 19 30.0
68% 88 Buffalo 38 53.9, 245 Robert Morris 10 29.1
68% 86 Alabama - Birmingham 24 49.2, 251 Alabama State 19 22.6
68% 82 Stony Brook 35 51.3, 212 Bryant 10 28.1
68% 78 Maryland 79 53.5, 198 Howard 0 34.7
68% 67 Nebraska 35 52.1, 193 South Alabama 21 28.3
68% 64 Temple 56 48.3, 235 Bucknell 12 21.6
68% 53 Arizona State 30 51.9, 194 Kent State 7 24.9
68% 43 Appalachian State 42 45.5, 169 East Tennessee State 7 21.9
68% 32 North Carolina State 34 53.2, 164 East Carolina 6 27.2
68% 23 Texas 45 45.8, 126 Louisiana Tech 14 23.1
68% 21 Oklahoma State 52 58.6, 144 Oregon State 36 38.1
68% 17 Louisiana State 55 45.4, 93 Georgia Southern 3 23.5
68% 11 Iowa 38 45.4, 109 Miami - Ohio 14 22.4
68% 9 Michigan 40 48.7, 94 Middle Tennessee State 21 23.4
68% 7 Mississippi State 38 50.3, 127 Louisiana - Lafayette 28 24.3
68% 2 Alabama 42 48.2, 42 Duke 3 26.2
67% 223 Texas - El Paso 36 48.8, 256 Houston Baptist 34 29.6
67% 70 Indiana 34 47.4, 185 Ball State 24 29.4
67% 13 Notre Dame 35 48.9, 132 Louisville 17 29.9
66% 179 Prairie View 44 44.6, 252 Texas Southern 23 28.6
66% 113 Arkansas 20 46.2, 197 Portland State 13 30.3
66% 91 North Texas 51 46.3, 209 Abilene Christian 31 30.4
66% 87 Troy State 43 38.7, 218 Campbell 14 21.7
66% 80 Colorado 52 44.6, 145 Colorado State 31 30.2
66% 65 Michigan State 28 37.7, 141 Tulsa 7 19.7
66% 57 Kansas State 49 42.0, 143 Nicholls State 14 24.7
66% 44 Texas Tech 45 48.7, 131 Montana State 10 33.4
66% 34 Syracuse 24 51.6, 140 Liberty 0 36.6
65% 186 William & Mary 30 33.6, 238 Lafayette 17 19.8
65% 182 Tennessee - Martin 42 43.0, 221 Northwestern State 20 31.4
65% 105 Maine 42 41.5, 180 Sacred Heart 14 29.7
65% 49 Ohio 41 47.0, 122 Rhode Island 20 36.4
65% 36 Kentucky 38 44.8, 75 Toledo 24 34.2
65% 3 Georgia 30 42.9, 58 Vanderbilt 6 28.8
64% 213 Eastern Kentucky 53 42.4, 236 Valparaiso 7 32.0
64% 178 North Carolina - Charl 49 38.2, 237 Gardner - Webb 28 27.5
64% 170 Tennessee - Chattanoog 24 39.2, 192 Eastern Illinois 10 30.7
64% 159 Austin Peay 41 42.3, 224 North Carolina Central 10 31.3
64% 157 Old Dominion 24 41.9, 233 Norfolk State 21 32.0
64% 130 Furman 46 38.8, 200 Charleston Southern 13 28.1
64% 79 Air Force 48 35.7, 148 Colgate 7 25.6
64% 31 Wisconsin 49 42.6, 115 South Florida 0 32.2
64% 28 Stanford 17 37.3, 50 Northwestern 7 28.7
64% 16 Washington 47 40.7, 33 Eastern Washington 14 32.1
64% 8 Auburn 27 41.7, 48 Oregon 21 31.3
63% 199 Bethune - Cookman 36 32.7, 241 Jackson State 15 25.0
63% 121 Southeast Missouri Sta 44 46.0, 134 Southern Illinois 26 39.9
63% 66 Cincinnati 24 39.7, 84 California - Los Angel 14 32.1
63% 40 Boston College 35 40.5, 68 Virginia Tech 28 33.1
61% 195 Bowling Green 46 40.4, 229 Morgan State 3 34.7
61% 139 Mercer 49 46.5, 191 Western Carolina 27 41.2
61% 107 Navy 45 40.0, 150 Holy Cross 7 33.9
61% 35 Iowa State 29 33.3, 81 Northern Iowa 26 26.9
61% 27 Boise State 36 40.1, 69 Florida State 31 34.3
60% 177 Central Connecticut 26 39.1, 225 Fordham 23 34.0
60% 56 Memphis 15 52.0, 55 Mississippi 10 47.7
60% 25 Utah 30 33.8, 77 Brigham Young 12 27.9
59% 196 Texas - San Antonio 35 39.1, 207 Incarnate Word 7 34.1
59% 168 Northern Arizona 37 40.0, 176 Missouri State 23 35.4
59% 165 Rutgers 48 41.8, 162 Massachusetts 21 37.4
59% 135 Illinois 42 37.7, 161 Akron 3 33.0
59% 128 North Carolina A&T 24 32.4, 120 Elon 21 27.4
59% 73 California 27 38.3, 76 California - Davis 13 33.5
58% 147 North Dakota 47 31.8, 190 Drake 7 27.0
58% 106 Towson 28 41.6, 137 The Citadel 21 37.4
58% 97 Kansas 24 40.8, 133 Indiana State 17 36.8
58% 96 Eastern Michigan 30 37.9, 153 Coastal Carolina 23 33.5
57% 138 Nevada - Las Vegas 56 42.4, 189 Southern Utah 23 38.8
57% 125 Western Michigan 48 47.9, 154 Monmouth 13 44.5
57% 123 Southern Mississippi 38 36.9, 156 Alcorn State 10 33.3
56% 114 Tulane 42 36.7, 108 Florida International 14 33.4
55% 204 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 35.3, 219 Lehigh 13 32.7
54% 152 Northeast Louisiana 31 39.2, 210 Grambling 9 37.0
54% 60 Southern California 31 33.9, 30 Fresno State 23 31.8
54% 14 West Virginia 20 40.2, 29 James Madison 13 38.1
53% 187 San Jose State 35 40.0, 201 Northern Colorado 18 38.4
51% 101 San Diego State 6 28.2, 99 Weber State 0 27.7
49% 163 Central Arkansas 35 33.6, 149 Western Kentucky 28 34.4
48% 155 New Mexico 39 40.9, 174 Sam Houston State 31 41.7
47% 220 Connecticut 24 39.9, 227 Wagner 21 41.3
46% 181 Central Michigan 38 30.3, 171 Albany 21 32.7
45% 216 McNeese State 34 31.3, 172 Southern 28 34.3
43% 167 California Poly 52 40.4, 142 San Diego 34 43.9
43% 129 Montana 31 41.4, 118 South Dakota 17 44.9
43% 54 Virginia 30 31.3, 52 Pittsburgh 14 35.4
42% 110 Northern Illinois 24 28.4, 71 Illinois State 10 32.9
42% 62 Wake Forest 38 41.7, 22 Utah State 35 45.6
40% 244 Davidson 27 33.8, 230 Georgetown 20 39.3
38% 124 Southern Methodist 37 37.4, 98 Arkansas State 30 43.3
37% 90 North Carolina 24 34.1, 46 South Carolina 20 41.1
36% 240 Tennessee Tech 59 32.9, 160 Samford 58 43.2
36% 211 South Carolina State 28 24.6, 117 Wofford 13 34.0
36% 116 Nevada - Reno 34 34.5, 47 Purdue 31 42.6
36% 63 Minnesota 28 34.0, 19 South Dakota State 21 43.4
34% 226 North Alabama 26 37.1, 104 Western Illinois 17 52.8
34% 112 Wyoming 37 27.3, 12 Missouri 31 42.4
33% 215 Southeast Louisiana 35 32.0, 83 Jacksonville State 14 50.0
33% 173 Georgia State 38 25.3, 85 Tennessee 30 43.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
32 1.22 78 1.31 3 1.38 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 113 92 71.5 1.29
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net