prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 14 James Madison 30 40.6, 72 Weber State 14 15.5
93% 20 Central Florida 48 40.3, 109 Marshall 25 21.0
91% 24 Appalachian State 31 36.1, 154 Alabama - Birmingham 17 14.3
87% 40 Louisiana - Lafayette 27 35.8, 134 Miami - Ohio 17 20.6
86% 82 Ohio 30 38.4, 170 Nevada - Reno 21 24.8
84% 10 Florida 36 36.5, 38 Virginia 28 22.0
78% 65 Pittsburgh 34 30.6, 128 Eastern Michigan 30 18.7
72% 79 Buffalo 31 36.7, 129 North Carolina - Charl 9 25.9
72% 36 North Dakota State 42 31.5, 35 Montana State 14 18.5
69% 98 Wyoming 38 30.7, 141 Georgia State 17 20.3
69% 16 Washington 38 31.6, 44 Boise State 7 22.4
67% 91 North Carolina A&T 66 30.7, 142 Alcorn State 44 22.3
67% 49 Tulane 30 33.3, 102 Southern Mississippi 13 25.5
67% 37 North Carolina 55 30.9, 67 Temple 13 23.8
67% 12 Penn State 53 34.5, 21 Memphis 39 26.6
67% 9 Georgia 26 27.9, 17 Baylor 14 19.3
67% 3 Louisiana State 63 42.5, 11 Oklahoma 28 35.0
66% 15 Notre Dame 33 32.2, 23 Iowa State 9 25.5
65% 4 Alabama 35 35.2, 6 Michigan 16 29.2
64% 103 San Diego State 48 20.7, 99 Central Michigan 11 17.4
64% 59 California 35 26.5, 68 Illinois 20 22.2
64% 39 Cincinnati 38 30.6, 62 Boston College 6 26.4
63% 30 Texas A&M 24 31.5, 34 Oklahoma State 21 29.6
63% 19 Iowa 49 26.4, 22 Southern California 24 23.5
62% 117 Arkansas State 34 32.9, 137 Florida International 26 31.1
54% 46 Arizona State 20 27.4, 57 Florida State 14 26.9
49% 83 Western Kentucky 23 28.1, 95 Western Michigan 20 28.2
49% 2 Clemson 29 32.1, 1 Ohio State 23 32.2
44% 53 Michigan State 27 25.3, 58 Wake Forest 21 26.1
44% 27 Navy 20 28.7, 29 Kansas State 17 29.6
43% 55 Tennessee 23 27.3, 42 Indiana 22 28.2
43% 47 Florida Atlantic 52 38.9, 33 Southern Methodist 28 39.8
43% 7 Oregon 28 26.8, 5 Wisconsin 27 27.7
40% 31 Kentucky 37 23.3, 28 Virginia Tech 30 24.9
37% 96 Hawaii 38 31.4, 89 Brigham Young 34 33.2
35% 132 Kent State 51 28.2, 120 Utah State 41 34.1
35% 48 Air Force 31 30.8, 26 Washington State 21 35.4
34% 126 Liberty 23 27.4, 97 Georgia Southern 16 32.6
34% 76 Louisville 38 32.1, 52 Mississippi State 28 37.7
33% 18 Minnesota 31 24.7, 13 Auburn 24 32.5
32% 106 Louisiana Tech 14 21.4, 56 Miami - Florida 0 31.6
23% 25 Texas 38 21.9, 8 Utah 10 33.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.23 24 1.02 4 1.00 3 1.17 3 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 42 26 28.4 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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