prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 2 Clemson 49 54.8, 168 The Citadel 0 6.1
69% 38 Cincinnati 55 41.5, 237 Austin Peay 20 12.3
69% 14 Notre Dame 52 41.9, 129 South Florida 0 11.9
66% 35 Oklahoma State 16 46.8, 98 Tulsa 7 29.5
66% 19 Central Florida 49 42.8, 118 Georgia Tech 21 27.9
65% 117 Troy State 47 39.3, 216 Middle Tennessee State 14 30.4
65% 50 Louisiana - Lafayette 34 43.1, 149 Georgia State 31 29.2
64% 186 Texas - San Antonio 24 34.9, 235 Stephen F. Austin 10 28.7
64% 142 Coastal Carolina 43 34.6, 206 Campbell 21 26.7
64% 96 Louisiana Tech 31 35.9, 163 Southern Mississippi 30 27.1
64% 59 Pittsburgh 21 33.8, 89 Syracuse 10 24.1
64% 20 Marshall 17 34.2, 31 Appalachian State 7 25.0
50% 67 Miami - Florida 47 31.8, 77 Louisville 34 31.6
48% 106 North Carolina State 45 33.0, 58 Wake Forest 42 34.0
44% 68 Boston College 26 31.1, 64 Duke 6 34.0
37% 153 Southern Methodist 65 39.5, 42 North Texas 35 42.6
37% 124 Liberty 30 26.8, 105 Western Kentucky 24 33.4
35% 185 Texas State - San Marc 38 38.8, 148 Northeast Louisiana 17 47.4
33% 252 Texas - El Paso 17 20.3, 211 Abilene Christian 13 34.7
24% 209 Navy 27 16.0, 60 Tulane 24 41.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.63 15 1.13 1 0.00 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 20 13 13.0 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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