prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 43 Appalachian State 52 40.2, 208 Campbell 21 16.3
87% 20 Southern Methodist 50 74.6, 250 Stephen F. Austin 7 22.9
83% 1 Brigham Young 48 57.7, 119 Troy State 7 17.9
70% 187 Central Arkansas 27 30.7, 218 Missouri State 20 21.7
70% 98 Louisiana Tech 66 46.8, 170 Houston Baptist 38 25.6
68% 177 Texas - San Antonio 37 38.9, 246 Middle Tennessee State 35 22.2
68% 41 Louisiana - Lafayette 20 36.6, 108 Georgia Southern 18 22.8
67% 97 Syracuse 37 28.1, 123 Georgia Tech 20 22.2
67% 69 Boston College 24 41.8, 110 Texas State - San Marc 21 26.5
67% 56 Pittsburgh 23 35.0, 80 Louisville 20 24.7
67% 25 Baylor 47 44.4, 113 Kansas 14 23.1
67% 19 Central Florida 51 51.8, 153 East Carolina 28 29.2
67% 6 Georgia 37 47.4, 130 Arkansas 10 18.9
66% 35 Virginia 38 35.8, 74 Duke 20 24.3
66% 26 Texas A&M 17 43.8, 129 Vanderbilt 12 20.7
65% 40 Virginia Tech 45 41.4, 106 North Carolina State 24 25.7
65% 5 Alabama 38 44.3, 38 Missouri 19 27.7
64% 66 Tulane 66 32.1, 127 Southern Mississippi 24 27.2
64% 21 Texas 63 40.0, 58 Texas Tech 56 34.1
64% 13 Auburn 29 36.0, 30 Kentucky 13 22.1
64% 9 Florida 51 39.4, 53 Mississippi 35 26.9
63% 67 Miami - Florida 52 27.6, 62 Florida State 10 23.3
63% 36 Cincinnati 24 22.1, 50 Army 10 16.8
59% 37 Oklahoma State 27 33.8, 46 West Virginia 13 30.5
58% 128 Liberty 36 36.5, 140 Florida International 34 32.2
44% 27 Iowa State 37 29.2, 39 Texas Christian 34 31.5
43% 55 Tennessee 31 27.2, 54 South Carolina 27 31.5
33% 42 Mississippi State 44 24.7, 4 Louisiana State 34 50.8
25% 32 Kansas State 38 24.7, 8 Oklahoma 35 42.3
23% 148 Alabama - Birmingham 42 24.2, 84 South Alabama 10 35.6
12% 237 Eastern Kentucky 37 19.5, 167 The Citadel 14 41.3
11% 252 Texas - El Paso 31 17.8, 169 Northeast Louisiana 6 36.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.87 21 1.44 2 0.00 5 0.69 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 32 25 22.0 1.13
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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