2020 Week 7 (14-17 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 94%   2 Clemson                 73 44.8,   116 Georgia Tech             7 12.2
 92%  12 Notre Dame              12 47.3,    96 Louisville               7 21.8
 78% 125 Georgia Southern        41 54.1,   245 Massachusetts            0 23.4
 76% 127 Central Arkansas        33 33.0,   211 Missouri State          24 25.4
 76%  99 Arkansas State          59 43.0,   145 Georgia State           52 33.1
 75%  63 Army                    28 31.7,   121 Texas - San Antonio     16 17.9
 73%  17 Marshall                35 33.5,   118 Louisiana Tech          17 15.8
 72%  68 Alabama - Birmingham    37 30.2,   136 Western Kentucky        14 19.2
 71%   3 Alabama                 41 37.4,     4 Georgia                 24 25.1
 69%  24 Miami - Florida         31 29.6,    62 Pittsburgh              19 16.8
 68%  35 Virginia Tech           40 38.6,    75 Boston College          14 26.2
 67%  88 Temple                  39 33.7,   180 South Florida           37 18.3
 67%  59 North Carolina State    31 31.7,    78 Duke                    20 26.8
 66%  11 Brigham Young           43 39.1,    70 Houston                 26 25.0
 64% 153 Jacksonville State      24 38.8,   219 North Alabama           17 30.3
 64% 110 Troy State              31 32.9,   164 Eastern Kentucky        29 27.9
 62%  43 Wake Forest             40 36.2,    42 Virginia                23 34.6
 55%  28 Texas A&M               28 27.3,    53 Mississippi State       14 26.6

 42% 189 South Alabama           30 24.9,   144 Texas State - San Marc  20 26.2
 42%  54 Southern Methodist      37 36.9,    74 Tulane                  34 37.9
 37% 166 Navy                    27 31.2,   163 East Carolina           23 33.5
 37%  32 Kentucky                34 23.4,    34 Tennessee                7 25.8
 36% 207 North Texas             52 33.6,   218 Middle Tennessee State  35 38.9
 36%  38 South Carolina          30 22.0,    19 Auburn                  22 25.6
 35%  93 Arkansas                33 32.4,    39 Mississippi             21 38.1
 33%  82 Florida State           31 29.0,    26 North Carolina          28 34.7
 33%  65 Memphis                 50 29.2,    23 Central Florida         49 37.6
 32% 128 Liberty                 38 25.1,   101 Syracuse                21 32.0
 25% 106 Coastal Carolina        30 25.2,    47 Louisiana - Lafayette   27 38.2

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 0.58  16 0.76   8 1.18   0 0.00   2 1.07   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  29  18  20.0 0.90

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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