2020 Week 9 (29-31 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 97%   3 Clemson                 34 50.7,    84 Boston College          28 11.6
 95%  31 Appalachian State       31 47.6,   238 Northeast Louisiana     13 14.1
 95%  15 Brigham Young           41 41.8,   164 Western Kentucky        10  9.2
 95%   2 Alabama                 41 49.4,    54 Mississippi State        0 17.5
 94%  65 Southern Methodist      51 39.4,   172 Navy                    37 23.1
 93%  37 Iowa State              52 38.8,   178 Kansas                  22 17.0
 91%  44 Louisiana - Lafayette   44 35.9,   154 Texas State - San Marc  34 21.3
 90%  25 Texas A&M               42 37.1,    78 Arkansas                31 20.5
 89%  11 Notre Dame              31 41.0,   144 Georgia Tech            13 14.6
 80%  71 Tulsa                   34 40.6,   168 East Carolina           30 23.8
 80%  14 Oklahoma                62 45.9,    66 Texas Tech              28 33.6
 79%  10 Florida                 41 39.1,    39 Missouri                17 22.6
 78% 125 Georgia Southern        24 26.1,   173 South Alabama           17 12.9
 73%  83 Duke                    53 31.6,   111 North Carolina - Charl  19 22.0
 72%  35 Wake Forest             38 38.7,   128 Syracuse                14 27.2
 69%  42 Mississippi             54 36.1,   136 Vanderbilt              21 27.0
 68%  22 Cincinnati              49 37.1,    56 Memphis                 10 25.5
 67%  59 Florida Atlantic        24 36.6,   121 Texas - San Antonio      3 23.3
 67%   4 Georgia                 14 26.4,    26 Kentucky                 3 16.9
 66%  28 Central Florida         44 44.4,    70 Houston                 21 37.2
 65%  88 Tulane                  38 36.4,   108 Temple                   3 30.7
 65%  60 Coastal Carolina        51 40.5,   110 Georgia State            0 34.4
 64%  41 Indiana                 37 36.0,   152 Rutgers                 21 21.4
 64%  27 Virginia Tech           42 36.6,    64 Louisville              35 33.3
 63%  99 Fresno State            38 38.8,   133 Colorado State          17 28.7
 63%  18 Texas                   41 34.3,    33 Oklahoma State          34 32.1
 63%   1 Ohio State              38 37.4,     8 Penn State              25 27.4
 62% 123 Southern Illinois       20 37.2,   138 Southeast Missouri Sta  17 30.1
 59% 179 Rice                    30 35.4,   217 Southern Mississippi     6 32.1
 57%  95 Wyoming                 31 31.2,    89 Hawaii                   7 28.0
 57%  57 Purdue                  31 33.4,    92 Illinois                24 30.4
 54% 143 San Jose State          38 36.5,   184 New Mexico              21 34.5
 53%  79 San Diego State         38 23.2,   101 Utah State               7 21.9

 49% 157 Nevada - Reno           37 30.6,   160 Nevada - Las Vegas      19 31.0
 49%  40 Boise State             49 25.6,    47 Air Force               30 26.1
 38%  48 West Virginia           37 24.2,    32 Kansas State            10 26.0
 37%  51 Virginia                44 30.1,    30 North Carolina          41 32.9
 36% 117 Troy State              38 34.7,   103 Arkansas State          10 39.0
 36% 106 Maryland                45 24.5,    21 Minnesota               44 38.2
 35% 213 Abilene Christian       20 27.5,   196 Mercer                  17 35.8
 35% 118 Louisiana Tech          37 25.7,    73 Alabama - Birmingham    34 29.5
 35%  90 Northwestern            21  9.1,    13 Iowa                    20 26.9
 34%  52 Michigan State          27 12.0,     7 Michigan                24 34.7
 34%  43 Texas Christian         33 23.0,    36 Baylor                  23 29.5
 34%  24 Auburn                  48 29.3,     6 Louisiana State         11 35.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                7 1.31  23 0.87   4 1.33   4 1.18   7 1.06   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  45  33  31.7 1.04

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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