prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 35 Marshall 42 43.3, 212 Middle Tennessee State 14 8.7
96% 10 Cincinnati 55 48.1, 163 East Carolina 17 10.7
93% 34 Kentucky 38 31.6, 150 Vanderbilt 35 8.8
93% 24 Central Florida 38 48.7, 146 Temple 13 23.7
92% 48 Appalachian State 17 45.7, 144 Georgia State 13 21.0
91% 99 San Jose State 34 39.3, 181 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 24.6
90% 58 Louisiana - Lafayette 38 34.1, 167 South Alabama 10 14.0
90% 4 Florida 63 44.9, 41 Arkansas 35 21.0
88% 130 Central Arkansas 37 32.7, 184 Eastern Kentucky 25 22.1
88% 81 Houston 56 40.2, 165 South Florida 21 23.7
85% 116 Georgia Southern 40 29.5, 152 Texas State - San Marc 38 17.4
81% 8 Notre Dame 45 33.7, 67 Boston College 31 18.2
77% 153 Western Kentucky 10 33.0, 215 Southern Mississippi 7 19.6
77% 51 Boise State 52 43.3, 135 Colorado State 21 23.5
74% 46 North Carolina State 38 39.8, 115 Florida State 22 28.5
73% 84 San Diego State 34 29.2, 105 Hawaii 10 19.7
71% 129 Texas - San Antonio 52 28.7, 183 Texas - El Paso 21 19.0
70% 86 Ohio 24 45.0, 249 Akron 10 11.3
68% 79 Liberty 58 49.2, 229 Western Carolina 14 25.8
67% 123 Nevada - Reno 27 35.3, 192 New Mexico 20 24.3
67% 101 Fresno State 35 31.5, 161 Utah State 16 25.1
66% 87 Florida Atlantic 38 29.6, 159 Florida International 19 21.5
66% 49 Virginia 31 34.6, 55 Louisville 17 29.8
66% 28 Mississippi 59 40.7, 57 South Carolina 42 33.3
66% 25 North Carolina 59 39.6, 33 Wake Forest 53 34.6
66% 15 Washington 27 43.8, 69 Oregon State 21 22.1
65% 26 Indiana 24 30.6, 73 Michigan State 0 24.5
64% 128 Kent State 62 37.1, 237 Bowling Green 24 22.8
64% 93 Western Michigan 41 40.7, 127 Toledo 38 30.8
64% 36 West Virginia 24 24.8, 37 Texas Christian 6 20.9
63% 71 Buffalo 42 33.5, 121 Miami - Ohio 10 22.6
63% 29 Southern California 34 41.3, 90 Arizona 30 33.2
63% 7 Oregon 43 37.5, 31 Washington State 29 30.9
55% 114 Ball State 38 34.1, 119 Eastern Michigan 31 32.1
54% 17 Iowa 35 28.2, 27 Minnesota 7 27.5
51% 47 Northwestern 27 22.8, 56 Purdue 20 22.7
51% 23 Miami - Florida 25 31.5, 38 Virginia Tech 24 31.3
47% 85 California - Los Angel 34 28.7, 52 California 10 30.4
47% 6 Wisconsin 49 28.8, 14 Michigan 11 29.6
45% 124 Central Michigan 40 26.7, 142 Northern Illinois 10 29.1
45% 74 Tulsa 28 33.1, 53 Southern Methodist 24 33.9
38% 89 Colorado 35 23.4, 62 Stanford 32 30.1
37% 112 Illinois 23 27.8, 111 Rutgers 20 30.5
37% 70 Tulane 38 23.6, 45 Army 12 26.4
34% 92 Texas Tech 24 30.5, 39 Baylor 23 36.3
34% 60 Nebraska 30 24.1, 21 Penn State 23 34.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.94 21 1.17 5 1.34 5 1.16 7 1.07 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 46 37 32.5 1.14
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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