prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 101 Ohio 52 46.8, 242 Bowling Green 10 16.1
97% 55 Liberty 45 57.9, 246 Massachusetts 0 16.1
96% 24 Central Florida 58 47.6, 160 South Florida 46 23.9
96% 3 Clemson 52 44.9, 46 Pittsburgh 17 15.6
95% 57 Louisiana - Lafayette 70 42.6, 231 Northeast Louisiana 20 16.1
95% 39 Texas Christian 59 40.2, 200 Kansas 23 15.7
94% 1 Alabama 42 45.3, 16 Auburn 13 19.5
93% 11 Iowa 26 38.9, 70 Nebraska 20 15.6
93% 4 Florida 34 42.5, 49 Kentucky 10 19.4
92% 15 Indiana 27 44.0, 97 Maryland 11 21.7
90% 33 Coastal Carolina 49 41.5, 148 Texas State - San Marc 14 24.5
90% 7 Georgia 45 34.0, 75 South Carolina 16 17.9
88% 37 Missouri 41 36.0, 123 Vanderbilt 0 15.5
84% 34 Oklahoma State 50 35.8, 80 Texas Tech 44 23.1
83% 134 Miami - Ohio 38 35.5, 247 Akron 7 16.6
78% 100 Wyoming 45 31.5, 178 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 18.3
77% 71 Appalachian State 47 30.0, 127 Troy State 10 15.6
74% 82 Western Michigan 30 42.1, 161 Northern Illinois 27 26.9
73% 118 Texas - San Antonio 49 41.9, 175 North Texas 17 28.8
72% 51 California - Los Angel 27 40.5, 90 Arizona 10 31.3
70% 56 Buffalo 70 41.1, 105 Kent State 41 30.0
70% 28 Mississippi 31 37.2, 59 Mississippi State 24 27.5
67% 166 Utah State 41 31.9, 188 New Mexico 27 23.6
67% 54 North Carolina State 36 30.4, 146 Syracuse 29 21.8
66% 88 Memphis 10 36.7, 150 Navy 7 31.3
66% 41 Baylor 32 29.6, 83 Kansas State 31 21.8
66% 8 Notre Dame 31 38.5, 23 North Carolina 17 32.3
65% 14 Texas A&M 20 37.4, 27 Louisiana State 7 31.6
63% 110 Central Michigan 31 32.8, 133 Eastern Michigan 23 30.2
61% 64 Boston College 34 28.9, 47 Louisville 27 27.4
56% 81 Colorado 20 21.8, 68 San Diego State 10 20.6
53% 18 Washington 24 25.8, 13 Utah 21 24.4
44% 121 Hawaii 24 34.6, 99 Nevada - Reno 21 35.1
38% 76 Stanford 24 20.3, 74 California 23 23.8
36% 128 Georgia State 30 28.3, 107 Georgia Southern 24 31.9
36% 19 Iowa State 23 32.1, 20 Texas 20 36.7
35% 131 Georgia Tech 56 26.7, 67 Duke 33 31.5
34% 125 Ball State 27 32.2, 115 Toledo 24 37.7
34% 93 Michigan State 29 12.8, 21 Northwestern 20 20.9
33% 183 South Alabama 38 25.8, 138 Arkansas State 31 33.8
33% 87 Rutgers 37 28.2, 42 Purdue 30 37.0
30% 45 Penn State 27 27.0, 29 Michigan 17 35.2
17% 136 East Carolina 52 31.3, 52 Southern Methodist 38 41.4
11% 66 Oregon State 41 26.2, 12 Oregon 38 39.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.21 18 0.76 6 1.35 7 0.82 10 1.06 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 44 32 33.5 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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