prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 8 Notre Dame 45 42.8, 137 Syracuse 21 8.2
95% 70 Texas Tech 16 52.2, 215 Kansas 13 25.4
94% 12 Iowa 35 35.7, 96 Illinois 21 15.8
93% 23 North Carolina 49 58.8, 236 Western Carolina 9 20.2
93% 6 Oklahoma 27 45.9, 46 Baylor 14 24.7
92% 145 Arkansas State 48 47.0, 239 Northeast Louisiana 15 27.9
91% 2 Ohio State 52 44.3, 85 Michigan State 12 17.1
90% 1 Alabama 55 47.7, 29 Louisiana State 17 25.0
88% 3 Clemson 45 47.1, 52 Virginia Tech 10 29.4
87% 77 San Diego State 29 31.3, 132 Colorado State 17 17.6
87% 4 Florida 31 42.9, 66 Tennessee 19 23.4
80% 15 Utah 30 37.6, 50 Oregon State 24 21.9
78% 72 Air Force 35 35.1, 172 Utah State 7 21.6
77% 38 Tulane 35 39.1, 102 Memphis 21 27.3
75% 22 Miami - Florida 48 35.5, 95 Duke 0 24.2
74% 115 Louisiana Tech 42 41.8, 185 North Texas 31 31.3
70% 57 North Carolina State 23 38.1, 106 Georgia Tech 13 26.9
69% 31 Missouri 50 32.2, 47 Arkansas 48 22.0
67% 62 Tulsa 19 28.8, 148 Navy 6 19.9
67% 60 Kentucky 41 28.8, 87 South Carolina 18 21.0
67% 19 Iowa State 42 27.3, 33 West Virginia 6 19.3
66% 41 Virginia 43 31.2, 48 Boston College 32 26.4
66% 37 Penn State 23 34.4, 65 Rutgers 7 27.8
66% 27 Southern California 38 38.8, 32 Washington State 13 34.1
66% 21 Texas 69 34.2, 68 Kansas State 31 28.2
65% 39 Texas Christian 29 27.3, 36 Oklahoma State 22 22.6
64% 120 Toledo 41 32.6, 161 Northern Illinois 24 28.3
63% 250 Akron 31 26.7, 245 Bowling Green 3 24.4
62% 146 Troy State 29 22.5, 171 South Alabama 0 20.7
61% 105 Nevada - Reno 37 28.1, 101 Fresno State 26 26.6
55% 104 San Jose State 35 33.4, 127 Hawaii 24 32.8
52% 118 Georgia Southern 20 19.8, 98 Florida Atlantic 3 19.4
50% 74 Colorado 24 31.0, 91 Arizona 13 31.0
43% 11 Texas A&M 31 24.3, 17 Auburn 20 25.4
41% 150 Western Kentucky 37 24.0, 141 North Carolina - Charl 19 25.4
38% 42 California - Los Angel 25 30.5, 49 Arizona State 18 34.2
36% 63 Nebraska 37 29.1, 51 Purdue 27 33.2
35% 43 Louisiana - Lafayette 24 22.8, 56 Appalachian State 21 27.3
34% 28 Coastal Carolina 22 26.6, 9 Brigham Young 17 32.9
23% 90 California 21 18.3, 14 Oregon 17 32.4
21% 142 Eastern Michigan 53 29.3, 86 Western Michigan 42 42.5
21% 124 Ball State 45 28.4, 99 Central Michigan 20 36.6
20% 195 New Mexico 17 16.4, 89 Wyoming 16 31.7
19% 81 Stanford 31 16.4, 18 Washington 26 34.8
18% 13 Indiana 14 20.4, 5 Wisconsin 6 31.9
9% 177 Rice 20 8.8, 34 Marshall 0 35.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.73 18 1.19 7 0.74 8 0.74 8 0.94 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 46 32 34.1 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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