prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 45 Buffalo 56 49.6, 241 Akron 7 12.1
97% 1 Alabama 52 52.1, 38 Arkansas 3 21.3
92% 33 Texas Christian 52 39.7, 121 Louisiana Tech 10 17.9
91% 28 Northwestern 28 30.3, 91 Illinois 10 14.8
90% 13 Brigham Young 28 31.1, 80 San Diego State 14 9.4
89% 133 Hawaii 38 39.6, 203 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 26.1
89% 70 Army 15 28.4, 150 Navy 0 12.0
84% 34 Penn State 39 31.2, 86 Michigan State 24 16.0
81% 23 Coastal Carolina 42 32.6, 132 Troy State 38 17.8
72% 61 Tennessee 42 28.2, 137 Vanderbilt 17 19.2
67% 126 Eastern Michigan 41 34.4, 172 Northern Illinois 33 25.4
67% 112 Florida State 56 34.2, 123 Duke 35 27.8
67% 103 Toledo 24 35.9, 120 Central Michigan 23 29.4
66% 81 Alabama - Birmingham 21 27.1, 141 Rice 16 21.2
66% 20 Auburn 24 24.2, 53 Mississippi State 10 18.2
66% 7 Georgia 49 30.3, 26 Missouri 14 23.4
65% 22 Utah 38 29.4, 51 Colorado 21 21.7
65% 18 Southern California 43 33.8, 31 California - Los Angel 38 30.8
64% 85 San Jose State 30 31.4, 92 Nevada - Reno 20 28.1
64% 55 Pittsburgh 34 30.1, 105 Georgia Tech 20 25.3
64% 44 Boise State 17 29.7, 97 Wyoming 9 24.4
63% 60 Appalachian State 34 22.9, 106 Georgia Southern 26 20.9
62% 93 Ball State 30 40.3, 104 Western Michigan 27 38.6
62% 54 Arizona State 70 28.5, 90 Arizona 7 25.0
57% 191 North Texas 45 31.6, 198 Texas - El Paso 43 30.6
55% 64 Virginia Tech 33 33.1, 37 Virginia 15 32.5
54% 14 Iowa 28 22.2, 5 Wisconsin 7 21.5
42% 39 Oklahoma State 42 25.3, 48 Baylor 3 26.3
37% 101 Memphis 30 33.5, 66 Houston 27 35.8
37% 76 Rutgers 27 30.8, 78 Maryland 24 33.6
37% 57 Louisville 45 33.1, 30 Wake Forest 21 34.6
37% 42 Minnesota 24 31.3, 43 Nebraska 17 34.5
36% 49 Stanford 27 31.9, 50 Oregon State 24 34.5
33% 29 North Carolina 62 29.1, 15 Miami - Florida 26 39.0
32% 193 Southern Mississippi 45 17.6, 136 Florida Atlantic 31 26.9
21% 192 New Mexico 49 20.8, 102 Fresno State 39 33.3
12% 32 Louisiana State 37 24.5, 4 Florida 34 44.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.34 21 1.03 2 0.66 6 0.96 4 1.06 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 37 27 26.3 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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