2020 Week 1 (28 Aug - 7 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 67% 141 North Texas             57 58.5,   255 Houston Baptist         31 27.5
 65%  47 Southern Methodist      31 48.4,   204 Texas State - San Marc  24 29.8
 65%  25 Memphis                 37 52.4,   120 Arkansas State          24 33.1
 62%  96 Army                    42 35.8,   114 Middle Tennessee State   0 27.9
 61% 108 Marshall                59 33.9,   163 Eastern Kentucky         0 27.4
 59% 128 Alabama - Birmingham    45 32.9,   177 Central Arkansas        35 27.5

 47% 231 Texas - El Paso         24 32.4,   228 Stephen F. Austin       14 34.3
 38% 177 Central Arkansas        24 30.0,    81 Austin Peay             17 38.5
 37%  78 Brigham Young           55 28.0,    35 Navy                     3 37.7
 36% 194 South Alabama           32 22.0,   105 Southern Mississippi    21 38.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                2 0.89   8 0.98   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  10   6   6.2 0.97

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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