17 Oct 2021: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2021 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

FBS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  6  13  9.8  6.6 Alabama                 
  2  7  12  8.8  7.3 Georgia                 
  3  8  12  9.8  6.2 Ohio State              
  4 20  10  8.7  6.6 Cincinnati              
  5 23   9  9.0  6.2 Michigan                
  6 32   9  9.3  5.8 Oklahoma                
  7 46   8  8.1  6.8 Clemson                 
  8 26   9  8.5  6.5 Penn State              
  9 21   8  8.6  6.3 Iowa State              
 10 18   9  8.9  6.0 Florida                 
 11 18   8  8.1  6.8 Iowa                    
 12 36   8  8.7  6.2 Notre Dame              
 13 25   8  9.5  5.3 Mississippi             
 14 17   8  9.2  5.6 Texas                   
 15 17   8  8.5  6.2 Auburn                  
 16 38   8  8.5  6.2 Utah                    
 17 22   7  8.5  6.1 Oregon                  
 18 32   7  8.1  6.5 Nebraska                
 19 24   7  7.9  6.6 Texas A&M               
 20 44   7  8.7  5.8 Pittsburgh              
 21 27   7  8.9  5.6 Louisiana State         
 22 39   6  8.3  6.1 Michigan State          
 23 32   7  8.8  5.6 Wake Forest             
 24 30   6  8.2  6.2 Arizona State           
 25 49   6  8.8  5.6 California - Los Angeles
 26 41   6  8.2  6.2 Oklahoma State          
 27 67   6  7.7  6.6 Wisconsin               
 28 41   6  8.9  5.4 North Carolina          
 29 49   6  8.3  6.0 Brigham Young           
 30 51   6  8.7  5.6 Southern California     
 31 46   6  8.5  5.8 Virginia                
 32 29   6  8.4  5.8 Coastal Carolina        
 33 38   6  7.7  6.5 Washington              
 34 55   6  8.3  6.0 Fresno State            
 35 15   6  8.3  6.0 Baylor                  
 36 27   6  7.8  6.4 Kentucky                
 37 57   6  8.3  5.8 Miami - Florida         
 38 23   5  8.3  5.9 Tennessee               
 39 32   5  8.4  5.7 Arkansas                
 40 33   5  8.3  5.8 Boise State             
 41 22   5  8.0  6.1 North Carolina State    
 42 70   5  8.0  6.1 Indiana                 
 43 54   5  8.1  6.0 Minnesota               
 44 36   5  8.5  5.6 Texas Christian         
 45 30   5  7.7  6.3 Air Force               
 46 52   5  8.7  5.3 Oregon State            
 47 58   5  8.0  6.0 Kansas State            
 48 63   5  7.8  6.1 Purdue                  
 49 27   5  8.1  5.8 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 50 44   5  8.3  5.6 Louisville              
 51 31   4  8.3  5.6 Houston                 
 52 30   4  7.6  6.3 San Diego State         
 53 51   5  8.8  5.0 Central Florida         
 54 59   4  8.2  5.6 Stanford                
 55 30   4  7.7  6.0 West Virginia           
 56 24   4  8.0  5.8 Appalachian State       
 57 44   4  8.6  5.1 Southern Methodist      
 58 33   4  7.9  5.8 Mississippi State       
 59 34   4  8.0  5.6 Liberty                 
 60 22   4  7.9  5.7 Boston College          
 61 62   4  8.0  5.6 Washington State        
 62 32   3  7.7  5.9 Army                    
 63 43   3  7.8  5.8 Virginia Tech           
 64 57   3  7.4  6.1 Northwestern            
 65 16   3  8.4  5.1 Texas Tech              
 66 38   3  7.8  5.7 Marshall                
 67 59   3  8.2  5.3 Florida State           
 68 61   3  7.6  5.9 Rutgers                 
 69 53   3  8.2  5.3 Nevada - Reno           
 70 48   3  7.4  6.0 California              
 71 36   3  8.6  4.8 Missouri                
 72 48   3  8.4  4.9 Western Michigan        
 73 47   3  7.7  5.7 Syracuse                
 74 51   2  7.5  5.8 Alabama - Birmingham    
 75 77   2  7.9  5.3 Ball State              
 76 38   2  7.7  5.5 Georgia Tech            
 77 59   2  8.0  5.2 Maryland                
 78 59   2  7.6  5.6 Tulsa                   
 79 72   2  8.2  5.0 Tulane                  
 80 37   2  7.4  5.8 Florida Atlantic        
 81 42   2  7.5  5.7 South Carolina          
 82 43   2  7.5  5.6 Toledo                  
 83 39   2  7.9  5.2 Buffalo                 
 84 58   2  7.8  5.3 Texas - San Antonio     
 85 67   2  7.2  5.9 Colorado                
 86 35   2  8.1  5.0 Memphis                 
 87 38   2  7.4  5.7 Wyoming                 
 88 50   2  8.0  5.0 East Carolina           
 89 44   2  7.8  5.2 Colorado State          
 90 49   1  7.9  5.1 Western Kentucky        
 91 52   1  7.8  5.0 Louisiana Tech          
 92 58   1  7.8  5.0 Eastern Michigan        
 93 48   1  7.8  4.9 Duke                    
 94 61   1  7.7  5.0 Utah State              
 95 52   0  7.2  5.5 Miami - Ohio            
 96 72   0  7.2  5.5 Illinois                
 97 46   0  7.6  5.1 Central Michigan        
 98 64   0  7.6  5.1 Hawaii                  
 99 67   0  8.0  4.6 Kent State              
100 68   0  7.8  4.7 Northern Illinois       
101 64   0  7.8  4.7 Georgia State           
102 37   0  7.0  5.4 Troy State              
103 51   0  7.5  4.8 South Florida           
104 52   0  7.0  5.4 South Alabama           
105 59   0  6.7  5.6 Texas - El Paso         
106 36   0  7.3  4.9 Ohio                    
107 51   0  7.1  5.1 Arizona                 
108 38   0  7.2  5.0 Georgia Southern        
109 47  -1  6.9  5.3 Navy                    
110 47  -1  6.4  5.8 San Jose State          
111 36  -1  7.2  4.9 North Carolina - Charlot
112 47  -1  7.4  4.6 Middle Tennessee State  
113 44  -1  8.2  3.8 Arkansas State          
114 60  -1  7.2  4.8 Nevada - Las Vegas      
115 51  -1  7.0  5.0 Vanderbilt              
116 46  -1  7.5  4.4 Texas State - San Marcos
117 39  -1  7.1  4.9 Temple                  
118 38  -2  7.0  4.8 Old Dominion            
119 30  -2  7.3  4.5 Florida International   
120 48  -2  6.8  4.9 New Mexico              
121 38  -3  7.2  4.3 Kansas                  
122 36  -3  7.3  4.2 North Texas             
123 38  -4  7.5  3.9 New Mexico State        
124 38  -3  6.5  4.9 Bowling Green           
125 34  -4  7.1  4.2 Northeast Louisiana     
126 24  -4  6.7  4.6 Southern Mississippi    
127 28  -4  6.3  5.0 Rice                    
128 32  -4  6.8  4.3 Akron                   
129 27  -5  6.5  4.4 Connecticut             
130 21  -6  6.8  3.8 Massachusetts           

FCS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1 12   8  8.0  6.8 North Dakota State      
  2 16   8  8.6  6.2 James Madison           
  3 29   6  8.1  6.1 South Dakota State      
  4 30   5  9.4  4.5 Eastern Washington      
  5 37   4  7.9  5.9 Montana State           
  6 34   4  8.2  5.6 Villanova               
  7 50   4  7.6  6.2 Dartmouth               
  8 53   4  8.0  5.7 Princeton               
  9 32   4  8.1  5.5 Southern Illinois       
 10 49   3  7.1  6.4 Northern Iowa           
 11 53   3  7.7  5.8 Harvard                 
 12 53   3  7.6  5.8 Kennesaw State          
 13 49   3  7.2  6.2 Weber State             
 14 47   2  7.6  5.7 Montana                 
 15 51   2  7.8  5.4 California - Davis      
 16 38   2  7.8  5.5 South Dakota            
 17 43   2  7.7  5.4 Yale                    
 18 55   2  8.6  4.4 Southeast Louisiana     
 19 47   2  7.4  5.6 Towson                  
 20 43   1  7.5  5.4 Holy Cross              
 21 34   1  7.3  5.6 North Dakota            
 22 72   1  7.4  5.4 Sam Houston State       
 23 39   0  7.8  5.0 Monmouth                
 24 42   0  7.1  5.6 New Hampshire           
 25 28   0  7.2  5.5 Elon                    
 26 47   0  7.3  5.3 Sacramento State        
 27 52   0  7.4  5.3 North Carolina A&T      
 28 48   0  6.9  5.8 Furman                  
 29 40   0  7.4  5.1 Tennessee - Martin      
 30 47   0  7.1  5.4 Albany                  
 31 43   0  7.1  5.4 William & Mary          
 32 38   0  7.7  4.7 Fordham                 
 33 27   0  7.5  5.0 Missouri State          
 34 33   0  7.4  5.0 Rhode Island            
 35 43   0  8.0  4.4 Central Arkansas        
 36 36   0  7.0  5.4 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 37 39   0  7.8  4.6 Youngstown State        
 38 51   0  7.1  5.3 Wofford                 
 39 43   0  7.1  5.2 East Tennessee State    
 40 44   0  6.8  5.6 Stony Brook             
 41 41   0  8.2  4.1 Samford                 
 42 53   0  7.5  4.8 Campbell                
 43 60   0  7.7  4.6 Incarnate Word          
 44 45   0  7.0  5.3 Delaware                
 45 48   0  7.5  4.8 Maine                   
 46 59   0  6.7  5.6 Richmond                
 47 68   0  6.7  5.5 Illinois State          
 48 43   0  7.3  4.9 Nicholls State          
 49 75  -1  7.1  5.0 Duquesne                
 50 61  -1  6.9  5.2 Stephen F. Austin       
 51 58  -1  7.6  4.4 Virginia Military       
 52 34  -1  7.3  4.8 Portland State          
 53 52  -1  6.9  5.1 Jacksonville State      
 54 29  -1  7.6  4.4 Western Illinois        
 55 23  -1  7.6  4.3 Northern Arizona        
 56 57  -1  6.8  5.1 Pennsylvania            
 57 66  -2  6.7  5.2 Florida A&M             
 58 84  -2  6.8  5.1 Columbia                
 59 33  -2  6.7  5.2 Eastern Kentucky        
 60 37  -2  7.3  4.5 Idaho                   
 61 60  -2  6.8  5.0 Charleston Southern     
 62 74  -2  6.8  5.1 McNeese State           
 63 58  -2  7.1  4.7 Mercer                  
 64 27  -2  6.8  4.9 Indiana State           
 65 32  -2  7.0  4.7 Austin Peay             
 66 36  -2  7.2  4.5 Southeast Missouri State
 67 50  -2  7.0  4.7 The Citadel             
 68 47  -2  6.5  5.3 Cornell                 
 69 48  -2  6.6  5.1 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 70 79  -2  6.6  5.0 Jackson State           
 71 41  -3  6.8  4.8 Central Connecticut     
 72 25  -3  7.6  4.0 Brown                   
 73 16  -3  6.3  5.3 Lafayette               
 74 **  -3  7.5  4.1 Davidson                
 75 75  -3  7.0  4.5 Norfolk State           
 76 71  -3  7.0  4.6 Prairie View            
 77 35  -3  6.8  4.6 South Carolina State    
 78 78  -3  6.8  4.7 San Diego               
 79 54  -3  6.8  4.6 Southern                
 80 21  -3  6.6  4.8 Murray State            
 81 64  -4  7.3  4.1 Dayton                  
 82 63  -3  6.8  4.6 Bryant                  
 83 38  -4  6.9  4.5 California Poly         
 84 58  -3  6.2  5.2 Sacred Heart            
 85 89  -4  6.7  4.6 Abilene Christian       
 86 50  -4  7.0  4.3 North Alabama           
 87 18  -4  6.8  4.5 Idaho State             
 88 43  -4  7.1  4.1 Hampton                 
 89 53  -4  7.1  4.1 Gardner - Webb          
 90 30  -4  6.3  4.9 Georgetown              
 91 58  -4  6.2  5.1 Grambling               
 92 33  -4  6.7  4.5 Robert Morris           
 93 50  -4  6.8  4.4 Southern Utah           
 94 28  -5  6.0  5.1 Eastern Illinois        
 95 29  -5  7.2  3.7 Alabama A&M             
 96 59  -5  6.2  4.8 Alcorn State            
 97 26  -5  6.1  4.9 Northern Colorado       
 98 15  -6  7.0  3.8 Western Carolina        
 99 47  -5  6.0  4.9 Colgate                 
100 **  -6  7.5  3.2 Saint Thomas - Minnesota
101 35  -6  6.7  4.1 Bethune - Cookman       
102 44  -6  6.5  4.3 Tennessee State         
103 54  -6  6.1  4.7 Alabama State           
104 92  -6  6.4  4.4 Marist                  
105 16  -6  6.3  4.4 Tennessee Tech          
106 66  -6  5.7  5.0 Drake                   
107 33  -6  6.3  4.3 Northwestern State      
108 **  -7  8.2  2.1 Merrimack               
109 57  -6  6.1  4.4 North Carolina Central  
110 71  -6  6.1  4.4 Valparaiso              
111 71  -7  7.0  3.4 Morehead State          
112 45  -7  6.3  4.2 Delaware State          
113 **  -7  7.0  3.3 Dixie State             
114 24  -7  6.5  4.0 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
115 **  -7  7.5  2.8 Tarleton State          
116 17  -7  6.6  3.8 Howard                  
117 12  -7  6.0  4.3 Wagner                  
118 13  -7  5.9  4.5 Bucknell                
119 45  -8  5.9  4.4 Lamar                   
120 17  -8  5.6  4.6 Morgan State            
121 46  -8  5.8  4.4 Stetson                 
122 61  -9  6.7  3.2 Texas Southern          
123 10  -9  6.6  3.2 Houston Baptist         
124 87  -9  6.1  3.8 Long Island             
125 32  -9  5.0  5.0 Lehigh                  
126 65  -9  5.6  4.1 Mississippi Valley State
127 34 -10  5.4  4.1 Butler                  
128 34 -11  5.7  3.7 Presbyterian            

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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