17 Oct 2021: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2021 season

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  6  13  8.8  7.5 Georgia                  130 43   0  7.6  5.0 Tennessee - Martin      
  2  7  12  9.6  6.3 Alabama                  131 43   0  7.5  5.1 Central Michigan        
  3  8  12  9.8  6.1 Ohio State               132 34   0  7.0  5.6 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
  4 18  10  8.8  6.7 Cincinnati               133 52   0  6.7  5.8 Furman                  
  5 22  10  9.1  6.3 Michigan                 134 58   0  7.8  4.7 Virginia Military       
  6 23   9  8.5  6.6 Penn State               135 52   0  7.1  5.4 South Alabama           
  7 21   8  8.7  6.3 Iowa State               136 48   0  7.1  5.4 William & Mary          
  8 31   9  9.6  5.4 Mississippi              137 35   0  8.3  4.2 Samford                 
  9  9   8  8.0  6.9 North Dakota State       138 57   0  7.8  4.7 Kent State              
 10 46   8  8.6  6.2 Michigan State           139 53   0  7.2  5.3 Sacramento State        
 11 31   8  9.2  5.7 Oklahoma                 140 45   0  7.5  4.9 South Florida           
 12 13   8  8.8  6.0 Florida                  141 60   0  7.7  4.8 Georgia State           
 13 29   8  8.7  6.1 Notre Dame               142 41   0  7.8  4.6 Youngstown State        
 14 16   7  7.9  6.9 Iowa                     143 65   0  7.1  5.3 North Carolina A&T      
 15 47   8  9.1  5.7 Pittsburgh               144 50   0  6.9  5.5 Albany                  
 16 17   7  8.5  6.2 James Madison            145 47   0  8.1  4.2 Central Arkansas        
 17 38   7  8.6  6.1 Utah                     146 31   0  7.9  4.4 Western Illinois        
 18 24   7  8.5  6.1 Auburn                   147 44   0  6.9  5.4 Delaware                
 19 26   7  8.5  6.2 Oregon                   148 57   0  6.5  5.8 Richmond                
 20 32   7  8.2  6.4 Nebraska                 149 41   0  6.7  5.6 Stony Brook             
 21 19   7  9.1  5.5 Texas                    150 69   0  7.2  5.0 Duquesne                
 22 16   7  8.3  6.3 South Dakota State       151 58   0  6.7  5.5 Texas - El Paso         
 23 46   7  7.6  6.9 Clemson                  152 37   0  7.4  4.9 Nicholls State          
 24 32   7  8.8  5.7 Wake Forest              153 60   0  7.0  5.2 Stephen F. Austin       
 25 45   7  8.6  5.8 Virginia                 154 23   0  6.8  5.4 Troy State              
 26 40   6  8.9  5.5 Louisiana State          155 45   0  6.9  5.3 Navy                    
 27 17   6  8.4  5.9 Baylor                   156 51  -1  7.4  4.7 Middle Tennessee State  
 28 37   6  8.5  5.8 Arkansas                 157 64  -1  7.2  5.0 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 29 24   6  8.1  6.3 North Carolina State     158 37  -1  7.2  5.0 North Carolina - Charlot
 30 25   6  8.1  6.2 Arizona State            159 45  -1  6.5  5.7 San Jose State          
 31 30   6  8.4  5.9 Coastal Carolina         160 46  -1  7.4  4.7 Maine                   
 32 26   6  8.5  5.8 Tennessee                161 30  -1  7.2  4.8 Portland State          
 33 48   6  8.8  5.5 California - Los Angeles 162 44  -1  6.9  5.2 Arizona                 
 34 14   6  7.6  6.7 Texas A&M                163 70  -1  6.8  5.3 Illinois State          
 35 40   6  7.8  6.4 Kentucky                 164 79  -1  6.9  5.2 Columbia                
 36 24   6  8.1  6.2 Oklahoma State           165 68  -1  6.7  5.3 Jackson State           
 37 55   6  8.3  6.0 Fresno State             166 41  -1  7.2  4.8 Old Dominion            
 38 39   6  7.9  6.3 Air Force                167 58  -1  6.9  5.1 Wofford                 
 39 38   6  8.3  5.9 Boise State              168 55  -1  7.1  4.9 Mercer                  
 40 50   6  8.6  5.6 Southern California      169 52  -1  7.0  5.0 Charleston Southern     
 41 49   6  8.9  5.3 North Carolina           170 54  -1  6.9  5.1 Jacksonville State      
 42 27   6  9.8  4.4 Eastern Washington       171 68  -1  6.7  5.3 Bowling Green           
 43 25   5  7.6  6.6 Washington               172 67  -1  6.6  5.4 Florida A&M             
 44 46   5  8.3  5.8 Miami - Florida          173 23  -2  7.1  4.8 Ohio                    
 45 69   5  8.0  6.1 Kansas State             174 25  -2  7.4  4.4 Northern Arizona        
 46 27   5  8.2  5.8 Villanova                175 70  -2  6.8  5.1 McNeese State           
 47 65   5  7.6  6.4 Purdue                   176 36  -2  6.6  5.4 Eastern Kentucky        
 48 19   5  8.5  5.5 Southern Illinois        177 35  -2  7.1  4.8 Temple                  
 49 52   5  8.7  5.3 Oregon State             178 21  -2  7.1  4.7 Georgia Southern        
 50 32   5  8.3  5.7 Houston                  179 44  -2  6.9  4.9 Vanderbilt              
 51 59   5  7.9  6.1 Minnesota                180 34  -2  8.1  3.6 Arkansas State          
 52 31   5  7.9  6.1 Harvard                  181 38  -2  7.4  4.4 Texas State - San Marcos
 53 25   5  8.1  5.9 Louisiana - Lafayette    182 60  -2  6.6  5.3 Pennsylvania            
 54 49   5  7.4  6.6 Wisconsin                183 16  -2  6.3  5.5 Lafayette               
 55 30   5  7.8  6.1 San Diego State          184 34  -2  7.4  4.4 Idaho                   
 56 39   5  7.9  6.0 Montana State            185 28  -2  7.3  4.4 Florida International   
 57 44   5  8.4  5.6 Louisville               186 28  -2  6.8  5.0 Indiana State           
 58 36   5  8.6  5.3 Texas Christian          187 40  -2  7.1  4.6 Austin Peay             
 59 41   5  8.0  5.9 Brigham Young            188 45  -2  7.1  4.5 The Citadel             
 60 48   5  7.8  6.1 Dartmouth                189 57  -2  6.9  4.7 Bryant                  
 61 70   4  7.9  5.9 Indiana                  190 73  -3  7.1  4.5 Norfolk State           
 62 41   4  7.3  6.5 Northern Iowa            191 45  -3  6.6  5.0 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 63 63   4  8.1  5.6 Stanford                 192 **  -3  7.5  4.0 Davidson                
 64 40   4  8.6  5.2 Southern Methodist       193 49  -3  7.3  4.3 Northeast Louisiana     
 65 52   4  8.1  5.7 Princeton                194 27  -3  7.5  4.0 Brown                   
 66 37   4  8.0  5.7 Liberty                  195 34  -3  7.1  4.4 North Texas             
 67 19   4  8.0  5.7 Appalachian State        196 42  -3  6.5  5.0 New Mexico              
 68 28   4  7.7  6.0 West Virginia            197 49  -3  7.2  4.3 Akron                   
 69 55   4  7.8  5.8 Syracuse                 198 40  -3  6.3  5.1 Cornell                 
 70 27   4  7.8  5.8 South Dakota             199 33  -3  7.2  4.2 Kansas                  
 71 19   4  8.5  5.1 Texas Tech               200 41  -3  7.5  3.8 New Mexico State        
 72 33   4  7.8  5.8 Army                     201 51  -3  7.1  4.3 Southeast Missouri State
 73 30   4  7.9  5.7 Mississippi State        202 44  -4  7.0  4.3 North Alabama           
 74 63   4  8.2  5.3 Florida State            203 18  -3  6.7  4.7 Murray State            
 75 39   4  8.2  5.4 Marshall                 204 50  -4  7.3  4.0 Hampton                 
 76 55   4  8.5  5.0 Central Florida          205 44  -4  7.2  4.1 Gardner - Webb          
 77 52   3  8.3  5.3 Nevada - Reno            206 92  -4  6.7  4.6 Abilene Christian       
 78 23   3  7.8  5.7 Boston College           207 54  -4  6.8  4.5 Southern                
 79 67   3  7.4  6.1 Rutgers                  208 45  -4  6.9  4.4 South Carolina State    
 80 47   3  8.4  5.1 Western Michigan         209 75  -4  6.6  4.6 Prairie View            
 81 52   3  7.6  5.9 Virginia Tech            210 39  -4  6.8  4.4 California Poly         
 82 53   3  7.4  6.1 Kennesaw State           211 16  -4  6.6  4.5 Idaho State             
 83 51   3  7.8  5.7 Washington State         212 58  -4  5.9  5.3 Sacred Heart            
 84 45   3  9.0  4.4 Southeast Louisiana      213 20  -4  6.6  4.5 Robert Morris           
 85 41   3  7.5  5.9 California               214 46  -5  6.8  4.3 Southern Utah           
 86 53   3  7.0  6.3 Weber State              215 52  -5  6.4  4.7 Central Connecticut     
 87 64   3  8.5  4.8 Western Kentucky         216 75  -5  6.9  4.2 Dayton                  
 88 34   3  7.7  5.6 Georgia Tech             217 28  -5  6.0  5.1 Eastern Illinois        
 89 60   3  7.9  5.4 Texas - San Antonio      218 27  -5  6.4  4.7 Georgetown              
 90 38   3  7.5  5.8 Florida Atlantic         219 32  -5  6.6  4.4 Connecticut             
 91 50   2  7.8  5.5 Colorado State           220 19  -5  6.3  4.7 Southern Mississippi    
 92 54   2  7.7  5.5 California - Davis       221 65  -5  6.2  4.8 Alcorn State            
 93 56   2  8.1  5.1 East Carolina            222 **  -5  6.9  4.1 Saint Thomas - Minnesota
 94 46   2  7.4  5.8 Alabama - Birmingham     223 20  -5  7.4  3.4 Alabama A&M             
 95 43   2  7.3  5.9 Northwestern             224 93  -5  6.3  4.6 San Diego               
 96 38   2  7.3  5.8 Toledo                   225 16  -5  7.1  3.7 Western Carolina        
 97 39   2  7.7  5.5 Holy Cross               226 29  -5  5.9  5.1 Northern Colorado       
 98 54   2  8.0  5.2 Maryland                 227 80  -5  6.4  4.5 Marist                  
 99 32   2  7.4  5.8 North Dakota             228 64  -5  5.8  5.1 Grambling               
100 65   2  7.8  5.3 Ball State               229 69  -5  6.3  4.6 Valparaiso              
101 40   2  8.7  4.4 Missouri                 230 18  -5  6.1  4.7 Rice                    
102 64   2  7.6  5.5 Sam Houston State        231 26  -6  6.8  3.9 Massachusetts           
103 56   2  8.0  5.0 Louisiana Tech           232 47  -6  6.1  4.7 Alabama State           
104 38   2  7.5  5.6 Wyoming                  233 74  -6  7.2  3.3 Morehead State          
105 37   2  8.2  4.8 Memphis                  234 34  -6  6.4  4.2 Delaware State          
106 59   2  7.2  5.9 Montana                  235 15  -6  6.6  4.0 Howard                  
107 72   2  7.9  5.1 Utah State               236 32  -6  6.3  4.3 Tennessee State         
108 38   1  8.1  4.9 Fordham                  237 **  -7  8.2  2.1 Merrimack               
109 38   1  7.3  5.7 South Carolina           238 51  -6  5.8  4.8 Colgate                 
110 61   1  7.0  6.1 Colorado                 239 55  -6  6.1  4.4 North Carolina Central  
111 24   1  7.9  5.1 Missouri State           240 44  -7  6.6  3.9 Bethune - Cookman       
112 62   1  8.1  4.8 Tulane                   241 29  -7  5.9  4.6 Tennessee Tech          
113 52   1  7.6  5.4 Tulsa                    242 **  -7  6.5  4.0 Dixie State             
114 57   1  7.2  5.7 Yale                     243 **  -7  7.2  3.1 Tarleton State          
115 47   1  7.2  5.7 Towson                   244 40  -7  6.0  4.5 Northwestern State      
116 51   1  7.9  4.9 Incarnate Word           245 58  -8  6.9  3.2 Texas Southern          
117 55   1  7.7  5.0 Eastern Michigan         246 12  -7  6.1  4.2 Wagner                  
118 52   1  7.2  5.6 Miami - Ohio             247 20  -8  6.3  3.9 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
119 31   1  7.5  5.3 East Tennessee State     248 69  -7  5.3  5.0 Drake                   
120 32   1  7.6  5.1 Buffalo                  249 41  -8  5.8  4.4 Lamar                   
121 65   0  7.6  5.1 Hawaii                   250 13  -8  5.8  4.5 Bucknell                
122 37   0  7.6  5.1 Monmouth                 251 17  -8  5.4  4.6 Morgan State            
123 41   0  7.3  5.4 New Hampshire            252 52  -9  5.8  4.1 Mississippi Valley State
124 48   0  7.7  4.9 Campbell                 253 87  -9  6.1  3.7 Long Island             
125 70   0  8.0  4.7 Northern Illinois        254 45  -9  5.3  4.4 Stetson                 
126 29   0  7.2  5.4 Elon                     255 31 -10  4.5  5.0 Lehigh                  
127 68   0  7.2  5.5 Illinois                 256 37 -12  5.9  3.2 Presbyterian            
128 45   0  7.8  4.9 Duke                     257 33 -11  5.1  4.2 Butler                  
129 33   0  7.4  5.2 Rhode Island             258  7 -13  5.8  2.8 Houston Baptist         

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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