2021 Week 2 (10-11 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 86%   4 Oklahoma                76 66.4,   231 Western Carolina         0 13.0
 86%   1 Alabama                 48 70.2,   196 Mercer                  14 12.3
 84%  58 Purdue                  49 44.5,   240 Connecticut              0 15.9
 78%  53 Boston College          45 55.3,   249 Massachusetts           28 17.5
 78%  47 Baylor                  66 58.8,   257 Texas Southern           7 14.2
 78%  26 North Dakota State      64 54.7,   251 Valparaiso               0  7.8
 74%  77 Maryland                62 53.8,   255 Howard                   0 18.9
 74%  40 Virginia                42 44.0,   137 Illinois                14 21.8
 74%   3 Clemson                 49 50.3,   168 South Carolina State     3 10.5
 73%  30 Central Florida         63 54.1,   214 Bethune - Cookman       14 20.9
 72%  16 Auburn                  62 51.3,   229 Alabama State            0 10.7
 71%  38 West Virginia           66 50.3,   254 Long Island              0 11.8
 70%  88 Villanova               55 44.7,   235 Bucknell                 3 13.8
 70%  37 Wake Forest             41 49.4,   215 Norfolk State           16 20.0
 70%   9 Florida                 42 48.5,   163 South Florida           20 19.5
 69%  56 Southern Methodist      35 57.4,   181 North Texas             12 33.2
 69%  48 Tulane                  69 46.1,   238 Morgan State            20 14.8
 69%  36 Fresno State            63 40.9,   170 California Poly         10 17.4
 69%  27 Arizona State           37 48.9,   182 Nevada - Las Vegas      10 17.2
 69%  24 North Carolina          59 50.0,   132 Georgia State           17 24.7
 69%  14 Cincinnati              42 48.3,   193 Murray State             7 14.2
 68%  66 Montana                 42 42.5,   207 Western Illinois         7 19.7
 68%  54 Virginia Tech           35 45.3,   178 Middle Tennessee State  14 21.0
 68%  46 Washington State        44 48.5,   172 Portland State          24 26.4
 68%  42 Coastal Carolina        49 43.7,   166 Kansas                  22 19.7
 68%  34 Northwestern            24 38.1,   197 Indiana State            6 14.4
 68%  25 Mississippi             54 46.6,   180 Austin Peay             17 20.6
 68%  19 Louisiana State         34 49.8,   185 McNeese State            7 18.0
 68%  17 James Madison           55 47.1,   112 Maine                    7 19.6
 68%  12 Wisconsin               34 41.6,   114 Eastern Michigan         7 14.5
 68%   6 Notre Dame              32 45.4,    95 Toledo                  29 18.3
 68%   5 Georgia                 56 38.2,    86 Alabama - Birmingham     7 11.3
 67% 173 Dayton                  17 43.0,   234 Eastern Illinois        10 27.7
 67% 142 Richmond                31 34.4,   225 Lehigh                   3 16.0
 67% 110 Furman                  26 39.5,   216 Tennessee Tech           0 22.8
 67%  93 Nevada - Reno           49 41.3,   199 Idaho State             10 23.0
 67%  90 Weber State             41 61.0,   248 Dixie State              3 37.4
 67%  76 Texas Tech              28 40.6,   192 Stephen F. Austin       22 19.1
 67%  74 Marshall                44 28.8,   202 North Carolina Central  10 10.7
 67%  59 Oregon State            45 42.3,   120 Hawaii                  27 30.2
 67%  50 Louisville              30 41.0,   176 Eastern Kentucky         3 20.9
 67%  35 Minnesota               31 40.6,   131 Miami - Ohio            26 20.7
 67%  23 Indiana                 56 43.1,   156 Idaho                   14 18.1
 67%   8 Texas A&M               10 38.4,    82 Colorado                 7 19.9
 66% 223 Alcorn State            13 35.0,   228 Northwestern State      10 26.0
 66% 174 South Alabama           22 31.5,   250 Bowling Green           19 17.3
 66% 167 New Mexico              34 31.6,   226 New Mexico State        25 21.0
 66% 158 Temple                  45 33.2,   243 Akron                   24 18.8
 66% 129 Central Connecticut     21 38.3,   241 Wagner                  19 20.3
 66% 126 Texas - San Antonio     54 42.0,   245 Lamar                    0 22.7
 66% 118 Kent State              60 47.3,   217 Virginia Military       10 34.3
 66%  78 Montana State           45 38.0,   201 Drake                    7 20.0
 66%  55 Louisiana - Lafayette   27 37.9,   165 Nicholls State          24 21.6
 66%  44 Boise State             54 32.1,    83 Texas - El Paso         13 20.5
 66%  20 Penn State              44 37.7,    69 Ball State              13 22.3
 65% 150 William & Mary          24 29.6,   218 Lafayette                3 17.7
 65% 148 South Dakota            34 43.4,   169 Northern Arizona         7 33.5
 65% 147 North Carolina - Charl  38 38.7,   232 Gardner - Webb          10 25.6
 65% 138 Delaware                27 31.5,   188 Saint Francis - Pennsy  10 18.9
 65% 115 Elon                    24 33.4,   208 Campbell                23 19.9
 65% 108 Central Michigan        45 39.9,   212 Robert Morris            0 26.5
 65%  65 Army                    38 30.6,   139 Western Kentucky        35 15.6
 65%  64 Air Force               23 30.3,   159 Navy                     3 16.6
 65%  33 Texas Christian         34 29.8,    71 California              32 16.3
 65%  28 Oklahoma State          28 32.3,    60 Tulsa                   23 19.9
 64% 200 Georgetown              20 34.8,   247 Delaware State          14 21.8
 64% 135 Stony Brook             24 26.7,   211 Colgate                  3 17.2
 64%  81 South Carolina          20 37.1,   127 East Carolina           17 29.9
 64%  32 Miami - Florida         25 32.3,    52 Appalachian State       23 22.8
 63% 125 Monmouth                26 39.9,   205 Fordham                 23 33.2
 63%  96 Wyoming                 50 26.6,   154 Northern Illinois       43 19.5
 63%  92 Houston                 44 31.3,   146 Rice                     7 24.1
 63%  73 Michigan State          42 32.8,   128 Youngstown State        14 26.5
 63%  72 San Diego State         38 26.5,   122 Arizona                 14 20.1
 63%  63 Kansas State            31 32.5,   119 Southern Illinois       23 25.1
 63%  29 Michigan                31 31.1,    31 Washington              10 25.5
 62% 140 Tennessee - Martin      33 40.2,   162 Samford                 27 34.6
 62%  91 Memphis                 55 39.4,   124 Arkansas State          50 34.6
 62%  45 Mississippi State       24 30.3,    62 North Carolina State    10 24.8
 60% 161 Tennessee - Chattanoog  20 32.7,   210 North Alabama            0 28.2
 59%  13 Brigham Young           26 28.8,    18 Utah                    17 24.9
 57% 105 Northern Iowa           34 23.1,   102 Sacramento State        16 19.6
 57%  68 Liberty                 21 32.5,   106 Troy State              13 29.6
 57%  39 Kentucky                35 28.6,    41 Missouri                28 25.4
 56% 171 Sam Houston State       52 29.7,   144 Southeast Missouri Sta  14 26.8
 54% 136 Louisiana Tech          45 36.3,   141 Southeast Louisiana     42 34.7
 53% 203 Old Dominion            47 31.3,   221 Hampton                  7 29.9
 52%  80 Rutgers                 17 29.5,   109 Syracuse                 7 28.7
 50% 151 Utah State              48 28.6,   145 North Dakota            24 28.5
 50% 117 New Hampshire           26 24.1,    87 Towson                  14 24.0

 49%  49 Pittsburgh              41 25.4,    57 Tennessee               34 25.8
 49%   7 Iowa                    27 24.0,    15 Iowa State              17 24.3
 48% 134 Florida Atlantic        38 21.3,    99 Georgia Southern         6 22.4
 48% 101 Duke                    45 31.8,    98 North Carolina A&T      17 32.7
 45% 194 Charleston Southern     38 27.1,   191 The Citadel             21 29.5
 44% 100 California - Davis      53 31.3,   133 San Diego                7 33.8
 41% 104 Western Michigan        28 27.6,   121 Illinois State           0 31.5
 38% 190 Southern Mississippi    37 26.9,   183 Grambling                0 31.9
 37% 239 Jackson State           38 26.7,   219 Tennessee State         16 32.2
 37% 233 Bryant                  17 24.3,   184 Sacred Heart             6 30.2
 37% 204 Missouri State          43 27.8,   123 Central Arkansas        34 33.6
 37% 152 Vanderbilt              24 26.9,   130 Colorado State          21 33.7
 37% 149 Texas State - San Marc  23 29.7,   157 Florida International   17 36.5
 37% 111 Georgia Tech            45 30.0,    89 Kennesaw State          17 36.5
 36% 227 Northern Colorado       45 31.0,   177 Houston Baptist         13 40.4
 36% 220 Incarnate Word          40 36.5,   160 Prairie View             9 44.8
 36% 153 Rhode Island            16 28.0,   116 Albany                  14 36.1
 36%  97 Nebraska                28 28.7,    43 Buffalo                  3 34.0
 35% 206 Duquesne                28 22.0,   107 Ohio                    26 34.4
 35%  61 Arkansas                40 31.0,    11 Texas                   21 42.2
 34% 164 Jacksonville State      20 21.7,    85 Florida State           17 37.3
 34%  51 Stanford                42 25.4,    21 Southern California     28 38.9
 32%  22 Oregon                  35 24.7,     2 Ohio State              28 48.6

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               18 1.12  83 1.23   9 1.34   3 1.17   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 113  90  73.7 1.22

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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