2021 Week 4 (23-26 Sep) Forecast for College Football Division IA & IAA

                                                                   ave score ROUNDED
rank projected winning team         rank projected losing team     TO NEAREST 3.5 POINTS
 --- ----------------------          --- ----------------------    ---------------------

90-100% chance of victory:

  23 Fresno State              over  202 Nevada - Las Vegas         49.0 to 14.0
   1 Alabama                   over  193 Southern Mississippi       63.0 to  3.5
  17 Auburn                    over  161 Georgia State              49.0 to 14.0
  22 Brigham Young             over  167 South Florida              45.5 to 10.5
  43 Coastal Carolina          over  237 Massachusetts              59.5 to 14.0
  84 Wyoming                   over  242 Connecticut                42.0 to 10.5
  71 Houston                   over  171 Navy                       38.5 to 17.5
   5 Iowa                      over  126 Colorado State             42.0 to 10.5
  29 Minnesota                 over  234 Bowling Green              49.0 to  7.0
  54 Montana                   over  195 California Poly            45.5 to 17.5
   3 Ohio State                over  238 Akron                      66.5 to  7.0
   8 Oregon                    over  133 Arizona                    45.5 to 14.0
  47 Montana State             over  166 Portland State             42.0 to 21.0
  99 Southeast Louisiana       over  235 Northwestern State         49.0 to 21.0
   2 Georgia                   over  151 Vanderbilt                 42.0 to  7.0

80-90% chance of victory:

  37 Arizona State             over  103 Colorado                   31.5 to 14.0
 107 Central Michigan          over  180 Florida International      38.5 to 21.0
  95 Duke                      over  176 Kansas                     42.0 to 21.0
   9 Florida                   over   78 Tennessee                  42.0 to 21.0
  21 North Carolina            over  117 Georgia Tech               38.5 to 21.0
 118 Louisiana Tech            over  200 North Texas                45.5 to 28.0
  77 Maryland                  over  109 Kent State                 38.5 to 24.5
  61 Northwestern              over  153 Ohio                       35.0 to 14.0
   6 Oklahoma                  over   42 West Virginia              42.0 to 21.0
  74 Buffalo                   over  183 Old Dominion               38.5 to 21.0
  46 Purdue                    over  124 Illinois                   38.5 to 21.0
  26 Southern California       over   58 Oregon State               42.0 to 28.0
 127 Stony Brook               over  208 Fordham                    35.0 to 17.5
  10 Texas                     over   55 Texas Tech                 45.5 to 28.0
  27 Utah                      over   91 Washington State           38.5 to 21.0

70-80% chance of victory:

  75 Dartmouth                 over  198 Sacred Heart               35.0 to  7.0
 185 Duquesne                  over  218 Houston Baptist            42.0 to 24.5
 104 Furman                    over  201 Mercer                     38.5 to 17.5
  53 Louisiana - Lafayette     over  148 Georgia Southern           31.5 to 21.0
 125 Sacramento State          over  210 Idaho State                31.5 to 21.0
  56 Miami - Florida           over  162 Central Connecticut        38.5 to 21.0
  14 Michigan                  over   48 Rutgers                    38.5 to 21.0
 131 Hawaii                    over  209 New Mexico State           35.0 to 24.5
 102 North Carolina A&T        over  175 North Carolina Central     49.0 to 28.0
   4 Clemson                   over   45 North Carolina State       31.5 to 17.5
 105 Troy State                over  224 Northeast Louisiana        38.5 to 17.5
  31 Texas Christian           over   80 Southern Methodist         38.5 to 24.5
  68 Tulsa                     over  154 Arkansas State             45.5 to 24.5
  51 Virginia Tech             over  139 Richmond                   35.0 to 17.5
  28 Washington                over   81 California                 28.0 to 14.0

60-70% chance of victory:

  44 Appalachian State         over   69 Marshall                   28.0 to 21.0
 112 Harvard                   over  194 Brown                      45.5 to 24.5
 152 North Carolina - Charlot  over  165 Middle Tennessee State     31.5 to 24.5
  57 Liberty                   over  100 Syracuse                   28.0 to 24.5
  82 Air Force                 over   97 Florida Atlantic           24.5 to 17.5
  72 Army                      over  111 Miami - Ohio               31.5 to 24.5
 115 Toledo                    over  119 Ball State                 31.5 to 28.0
  19 Iowa State                over   49 Baylor                     24.5 to 21.0
  67 Boston College            over   65 Missouri                   35.0 to 31.5
 228 Colgate                   over  247 Lehigh                     21.0 to 10.5
 182 Columbia                  over  220 Georgetown                 24.5 to 14.0
 196 Dayton                    over  256 Presbyterian               42.0 to 21.0
 217 Drake                     over  249 Valparaiso                 31.5 to 17.5
 110 East Carolina             over  189 Charleston Southern        35.0 to 28.0
 179 Eastern Kentucky          over  159 Austin Peay                28.0 to 24.5
 121 Eastern Michigan          over  150 Texas State - San Marcos   35.0 to 28.0
 123 Elon                      over  130 William & Mary             24.5 to 21.0
 229 Gardner - Webb            over  226 Western Carolina           35.0 to 31.5
 168 Incarnate Word            over  181 McNeese State              31.5 to 28.0
  73 South Dakota State        over  157 Indiana State              35.0 to 21.0
 155 Pennsylvania              over  206 Lafayette                  28.0 to 21.0
 205 Abilene Christian         over  246 Lamar                      28.0 to 21.0
  94 Memphis                   over  116 Texas - San Antonio        38.5 to 28.0
  34 Michigan State            over   39 Nebraska                   21.0 to 17.5
  20 Louisiana State           over   62 Mississippi State          31.5 to 24.5
 114 South Dakota              over  186 Missouri State             31.5 to 24.5
 138 Monmouth                  over  141 Holy Cross                 31.5 to 28.0
 147 Nicholls State            over  207 North Alabama              35.0 to 24.5
 213 Northern Colorado         over  187 Northern Arizona           28.0 to 24.5
 128 Maine                     over  156 Northern Illinois          35.0 to 28.0
 177 Prairie View              over  223 Grambling                  28.0 to 21.0
  15 Texas A&M                 over   36 Arkansas                   31.5 to 21.0
  64 Tulane                    over   93 Alabama - Birmingham       35.0 to 28.0
  35 Oklahoma State            over   40 Kansas State               28.0 to 21.0
  16 Penn State                over   70 Villanova                  35.0 to 24.5
  59 Pittsburgh                over  113 New Hampshire              28.0 to 21.0
  85 Princeton                 over  236 Stetson                    49.0 to 14.0
 192 Rice                      over  257 Texas Southern             42.0 to 17.5
 214 Robert Morris             over  253 Howard                     42.0 to 24.5
 173 Saint Francis - Pennsylv  over  219 Norfolk State              31.5 to 17.5
 244 Saint Thomas - Minnesota  over  250 Butler                     56.0 to 49.0
 143 Samford                   over  178 East Tennessee State       35.0 to 28.0
  60 San Diego State           over   98 Towson                     24.5 to 21.0
  63 Kentucky                  over   83 South Carolina             24.5 to 21.0
 190 Southeast Missouri State  over  225 Tennessee State            35.0 to 28.0
  88 Southern Illinois         over  122 Illinois State             28.0 to 21.0
  86 Eastern Washington        over  146 Southern Utah              38.5 to 28.0
  25 California - Los Angeles  over   50 Stanford                   35.0 to 31.5
 172 Temple                    over  233 Wagner                     28.0 to 21.0
 212 Eastern Illinois          over  243 Tennessee Tech             28.0 to 17.5
 149 Texas - El Paso           over  163 New Mexico                 24.5 to 21.0
  41 Boise State               over  106 Utah State                 38.5 to 28.0
 108 Wofford                   over  191 Virginia Military          38.5 to 24.5
  30 Indiana                   over  137 Western Kentucky           31.5 to 21.0
  87 Yale                      over  170 Cornell                    38.5 to 21.0
 140 Youngstown State          over  184 Western Illinois           38.5 to 28.0
 204 Southern                  over  258 Mississippi Valley State   38.5 to 17.5

50-60% chance of victory:

  38 Virginia                  over   33 Wake Forest                35.0 to 31.5
 232 Alabama State             over  216 Bethune - Cookman          28.0 to 28.0
 231 Alcorn State              over  230 Arkansas - Pine Bluff      21.0 to 21.0
 134 Central Arkansas          over  142 Sam Houston State          31.5 to 31.5
 203 Davidson                  over  188 San Diego                  35.0 to 31.5
  90 Florida State             over   52 Louisville                 31.5 to 31.5
 158 Jacksonville State        over  136 Tennessee - Martin         24.5 to 24.5
 241 Marist                    over  227 Bryant                     28.0 to 28.0
  13 Wisconsin                 over   24 Notre Dame                 21.0 to 21.0
  79 Weber State               over   66 California - Davis         24.5 to 21.0
  96 Western Michigan          over  101 San Jose State             31.5 to 31.5

NOTE: the above scores are rounded to the nearest 3.5 points. Exact predicted scores are not released until after game time

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