2021 Week 5 (30 Sep - 2 Oct) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 97%  41 Coastal Carolina        59 47.5,   207 Northeast Louisiana      6 13.8
 96%  95 Yale                    34 37.4,   252 Lehigh                   0 11.4
 95%  66 Montana State           40 41.3,   221 Northern Colorado        7  8.9
 95%  19 Iowa State              59 46.4,   179 Kansas                   7 14.3
 94%  98 Toledo                  45 45.2,   233 Massachusetts            7 19.8
 93%   2 Georgia                 37 38.6,    27 Arkansas                 0 15.9
 92% 144 Nicholls State          48 44.0,   237 Houston Baptist         17 22.5
 92% 126 Incarnate Word          38 39.1,   236 Northwestern State      27 24.0
 92%  14 North Dakota State      16 36.0,   124 North Dakota            10 12.9
 91%  63 Southern Methodist      41 41.6,   143 South Florida           17 25.1
 91%   1 Alabama                 42 51.7,    12 Mississippi             21 28.6
 90%  10 James Madison           23 39.1,   127 New Hampshire           21 17.4
 89% 149 Tennessee - Chattanoog  45 38.8,   230 Western Carolina        17 19.8
 89%  89 Kennesaw State          31 36.0,   164 Jacksonville State       6 18.5
 89%  16 Penn State              24 35.9,    47 Indiana                  0 21.2
 87% 103 Texas - San Antonio     24 39.2,   186 Nevada - Las Vegas      17 22.6
 87%  51 California - Davis      27 41.6,   171 Idaho                   20 14.4
 87%  44 Appalachian State       45 39.1,   148 Georgia State           16 22.2
 87%  36 North Carolina State    34 38.4,   113 Louisiana Tech          27 18.5
 86%  71 Southern Illinois       31 43.7,   166 Western Illinois        30 24.1
 86%  55 South Dakota State      55 65.3,   246 Dixie State              7 21.0
 86%   5 Clemson                 19 34.5,    57 Boston College          13 16.1
 85%  58 Princeton               24 40.7,   181 Columbia                 7 14.4
 85%  31 Southern California     37 31.4,   118 Colorado                14 20.4
 84%  50 Air Force               38 33.3,   172 New Mexico              10 15.6
 84%  25 Wake Forest             37 35.0,    54 Louisville              34 25.7
 83% 141 San Jose State          37 32.5,   217 New Mexico State        31 13.9
 83%  78 Weber State             38 31.5,   201 California Poly          7 11.4
 82% 170 Vanderbilt              30 33.3,   228 Connecticut             28 19.5
 82% 116 Kent State              27 34.4,   198 Bowling Green           20 20.7
 82%  28 North Carolina          38 44.6,    94 Duke                     7 31.9
 81% 152 Monmouth                54 41.3,   212 Gardner - Webb          17 26.3
 81% 110 South Dakota            38 34.1,   187 Indiana State           10 21.0
 81% 102 Florida Atlantic        58 32.9,   178 Florida International   21 16.9
 80% 177 South Carolina State    42 35.3,   222 Bethune - Cookman       35 22.1
 80%   3 Ohio State              52 39.3,    35 Rutgers                 13 24.1
 75%  22 Michigan State          48 38.1,   125 Western Kentucky        31 16.3
 74%  26 Brigham Young           34 36.4,   109 Utah State              20 22.1
 73%  82 South Carolina          23 27.7,   119 Troy State              14 16.9
 72% 107 North Carolina A&T      41 39.0,   220 Robert Morris           14 17.4
 72%  81 Northern Iowa           34 32.7,   135 Youngstown State         7 13.7
 72%  69 Louisiana - Lafayette   20 32.6,   153 South Alabama           18 17.3
 69% 173 Ohio                    34 34.7,   232 Akron                   17 23.6
 67% 189 Prairie View            27 38.3,   229 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   17 25.5
 67% 139 Delaware                20 26.3,   131 Albany                  15 21.6
 67% 112 Sam Houston State       21 30.5,   168 Stephen F. Austin       20 20.2
 67% 104 Southeast Louisiana     38 34.8,   192 McNeese State           35 25.6
 67%  15 Iowa                    51 28.6,    73 Maryland                14 17.8
 66% 191 Florida A&M             28 30.7,   226 Alabama State            0 20.9
 66% 161 Campbell                48 32.6,   219 North Alabama           31 25.9
 66% 156 Georgia Southern        59 37.6,   145 Arkansas State          33 32.0
 66%  91 Florida State           33 30.4,    92 Syracuse                30 24.2
 66%  76 Dartmouth               31 31.0,   158 Pennsylvania             7 16.8
 66%  48 Nebraska                56 21.8,    77 Northwestern             7 14.1
 66%  13 Oklahoma                37 32.7,    39 Kansas State            31 26.1
 65% 231 Drake                    6 25.3,   255 Butler                   3 17.5
 65% 203 Northern Arizona        48 30.4,   208 Idaho State             17 27.1
 65% 202 Saint Francis - Pennsy  27 25.3,   244 Morgan State            14 19.0
 65% 133 Rhode Island            27 28.5,   151 Stony Brook             20 25.1
 65% 121 Illinois                24 27.8,   155 North Carolina - Charl  14 22.9
 65%  38 Oklahoma State          24 28.1,    56 Baylor                  14 24.1
 65%   6 Texas                   32 37.6,    46 Texas Christian         27 32.4
 64% 213 Bryant                  36 35.3,   206 Brown                   29 30.5
 64% 183 Eastern Kentucky        20 56.2,   242 Tarleton State           3 43.2
 64% 150 Texas - El Paso         28 26.7,   160 Old Dominion            21 21.5
 64%  32 Pittsburgh              52 30.2,    80 Georgia Tech            21 27.2
 63% 234 Grambling               37 25.9,   214 Alabama A&M             28 22.8
 63% 215 San Diego               27 52.5,   239 Saint Thomas - Minneso  24 44.1
 63% 199 Davidson                35 32.7,   241 Stetson                 28 27.6
 63% 136 Central Arkansas        42 34.5,   194 Abilene Christian       21 31.3
 63% 115 Miami - Ohio            28 29.4,   114 Central Michigan        17 27.1
 59%  99 Harvard                 38 28.0,   108 Holy Cross              13 25.9
 54%  68 Liberty                 36 26.5,    90 Alabama - Birmingham    12 25.9
 53% 193 The Citadel             35 32.6,   167 Virginia Military       24 32.3
 52% 210 Murray State            22 19.9,   225 Eastern Illinois         6 19.7
 52% 163 Portland State          20 26.5,   188 Southern Utah           13 26.0
 51% 205 Rice                    24 24.3,   185 Southern Mississippi    19 24.1

 49% 190 Norfolk State           47 29.7,   218 Hampton                 44 30.1
 41% 162 East Tennessee State    27 22.6,   123 Wofford                 21 24.7
 40% 180 Mercer                  45 36.8,   140 Samford                 42 38.9
 40% 169 Fordham                 42 21.9,   195 Lafayette               41 23.2
 39%   4 Michigan                38 23.2,    20 Wisconsin               17 25.0
 38%  85 Houston                 45 27.3,    84 Tulsa                   10 29.2
 38%  37 Oregon State            27 26.8,    30 Washington              24 28.6
 37% 245 Marist                  27 25.8,   243 Valparaiso              24 28.7
 37% 137 Northern Illinois       27 33.9,   105 Eastern Michigan        20 36.5
 37% 101 East Carolina           52 34.1,    88 Tulane                  29 36.1
 37%  87 Eastern Washington      34 37.5,    45 Montana                 28 40.8
 37%  65 Minnesota               20 23.2,    60 Purdue                  13 26.6
 37%   9 Cincinnati              24 27.2,    11 Notre Dame              13 29.9
 36% 224 Colgate                 28 15.1,   216 Georgetown              21 19.2
 36%  79 Western Michigan        24 33.2,    83 Buffalo                 17 36.1
 35%  75 Tennessee               62 28.4,    62 Missouri                24 34.8
 34% 159 Temple                  34 28.9,    97 Memphis                 31 36.4
 34% 134 Elon                    20 20.3,   128 Richmond                 7 26.2
 34% 100 Washington State        21 24.2,    86 California               6 30.0
 34%  53 Virginia                30 25.7,    43 Miami - Florida         28 33.6
 34%  40 Arizona State           42 27.3,    17 California - Los Angel  23 34.2
 34%  24 Auburn                  24 27.6,    18 Louisiana State         19 33.6
 33%  72 Texas Tech              23 25.7,    42 West Virginia           20 34.2
 32% 247 Bucknell                21 12.5,   182 Cornell                 10 24.8
 32% 132 Ball State              28 21.6,    67 Army                    16 32.2
 32%  59 Kentucky                20 22.4,     7 Florida                 13 32.6
 31% 258 Mississippi Valley Sta  17 18.1,   211 North Carolina Central  16 37.0
 31% 154 Missouri State          41 19.4,   129 Illinois State          20 31.3
 28%  64 Stanford                31 24.3,     8 Oregon                  24 35.4
 25%  70 Mississippi State       26 14.2,    21 Texas A&M               22 26.8
 15% 253 Tennessee Tech          28 24.1,   175 Southeast Missouri Sta  17 37.7
 15% 250 Delaware State          33 18.6,   235 Wagner                  27 31.6
 15% 238 Tennessee State         24 22.3,   157 Austin Peay             22 38.4
 15% 165 Middle Tennessee State  34 20.0,    52 Marshall                28 36.7
 15% 117 Hawaii                  27 22.7,    23 Fresno State            24 37.3
 13% 249 Morehead State          45 33.2,   196 Dayton                  38 47.7
 11% 248 Howard                  22 17.5,   197 Sacred Heart            17 33.0
 10%  96 Nevada - Reno           41 20.6,    33 Boise State             31 37.6
  7% 176 Navy                    34 22.6,    34 Central Florida         30 42.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                8 1.39  55 0.81   8 1.03  33 0.89  12 0.98   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 116  77  85.1 0.90

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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