prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 122 Incarnate Word 49 60.1, 258 Houston Baptist 21 13.3
97% 75 Liberty 62 48.9, 234 Massachusetts 17 11.7
97% 28 Oklahoma State 55 46.3, 196 Kansas 3 12.2
97% 12 North Dakota State 44 42.1, 177 Indiana State 2 5.2
96% 60 Appalachian State 59 45.9, 175 Northeast Louisiana 28 16.9
96% 21 James Madison 45 38.8, 114 Elon 21 14.6
95% 74 Kennesaw State 34 43.7, 202 Gardner - Webb 30 11.4
95% 70 Louisiana - Lafayette 45 42.7, 191 Texas State - San Marc 0 15.9
94% 54 Southern California 41 39.3, 148 Arizona 34 17.4
94% 10 Oregon 52 36.2, 127 Colorado 29 10.8
94% 5 Cincinnati 31 45.8, 129 Tulane 12 19.6
92% 135 Jackson State 28 36.3, 247 Mississippi Valley Sta 19 13.8
92% 66 Nevada - Reno 51 41.2, 163 Nevada - Las Vegas 20 20.4
92% 65 Princeton 34 37.6, 205 Cornell 16 14.3
92% 27 Coastal Carolina 35 39.2, 153 Troy State 28 14.8
92% 16 Wake Forest 45 48.2, 111 Duke 7 28.0
92% 3 Ohio State 33 40.4, 17 Penn State 24 22.0
91% 227 Dayton 38 35.9, 256 Butler 31 18.2
91% 167 Eastern Kentucky 42 33.1, 245 Lamar 10 9.4
91% 89 Weber State 40 31.7, 206 Idaho State 17 10.2
91% 67 Marshall 38 43.4, 197 Florida International 0 18.6
91% 19 Oklahoma 52 46.8, 72 Texas Tech 21 29.2
90% 97 Holy Cross 31 34.7, 253 Lehigh 12 9.9
90% 77 Central Florida 49 41.3, 189 Temple 7 23.5
89% 105 Montana 20 36.5, 222 Southern Utah 19 9.1
88% 165 Nicholls State 42 36.9, 250 Northwestern State 21 16.1
86% 79 Florida Atlantic 28 30.3, 154 Texas - El Paso 25 12.9
86% 25 South Dakota State 47 41.7, 160 Youngstown State 16 21.2
86% 1 Georgia 34 33.7, 7 Florida 7 20.3
85% 199 Norfolk State 31 34.1, 254 Morgan State 20 16.7
84% 138 Middle Tennessee State 35 34.3, 217 Southern Mississippi 10 21.0
83% 82 Southeast Louisiana 23 44.1, 170 McNeese State 20 26.8
81% 178 Florida A&M 26 26.0, 219 Grambling 3 14.3
77% 192 Southeast Missouri Sta 38 30.5, 242 Eastern Illinois 15 19.5
77% 164 Portland State 42 34.9, 213 California Poly 21 24.0
77% 124 Sacramento State 27 29.0, 225 Northern Colorado 24 15.1
76% 139 Delaware 17 38.7, 240 Dixie State 10 8.2
76% 90 East Carolina 29 36.0, 134 South Florida 14 25.0
75% 99 Missouri 37 39.6, 193 Vanderbilt 28 26.1
74% 80 Western Kentucky 45 39.9, 161 North Carolina - Charl 13 25.6
72% 238 Colgate 33 25.5, 251 Bucknell 10 14.5
72% 91 Sam Houston State 45 59.6, 243 Tarleton State 27 29.5
72% 33 Clemson 30 29.1, 55 Florida State 20 16.3
72% 11 Notre Dame 44 37.6, 31 North Carolina 34 28.8
67% 198 Davidson 29 47.3, 230 Morehead State 22 39.9
67% 176 Pennsylvania 45 37.3, 183 Brown 17 28.5
67% 131 Towson 38 24.9, 157 Albany 24 17.9
67% 112 Yale 37 28.3, 152 Columbia 30 20.7
67% 22 Utah 44 36.8, 32 California - Los Angel 24 29.2
66% 255 Stetson 56 34.3, 257 Presbyterian 14 24.5
66% 155 Mercer 34 34.1, 209 The Citadel 7 26.8
66% 151 South Alabama 31 39.5, 173 Arkansas State 13 32.2
66% 143 Tennessee - Martin 17 34.9, 159 Austin Peay 16 29.0
66% 140 Stephen F. Austin 41 29.2, 203 Abilene Christian 27 19.5
66% 98 Tennessee - Chattanoog 13 22.9, 144 Furman 3 15.5
66% 49 Kansas State 31 32.4, 68 Texas Christian 12 25.3
66% 45 Houston 44 37.3, 57 Southern Methodist 37 31.4
66% 39 Boise State 28 30.2, 88 Colorado State 19 24.6
66% 37 North Carolina State 28 30.8, 44 Louisville 13 25.3
65% 215 San Diego 21 27.7, 211 Valparaiso 14 21.1
65% 212 Tennessee State 27 27.6, 231 Murray State 21 22.0
65% 128 Virginia Military 46 43.1, 166 Samford 45 38.2
65% 106 Utah State 51 33.0, 116 Hawaii 31 28.2
65% 73 Rutgers 20 23.9, 108 Illinois 14 19.3
65% 43 Northern Iowa 23 26.5, 58 Southern Illinois 16 20.4
64% 241 Delaware State 30 31.4, 228 Howard 23 27.7
64% 186 Lafayette 24 23.0, 220 Georgetown 23 18.8
64% 69 Syracuse 21 27.7, 93 Boston College 6 23.1
63% 249 Long Island 28 31.8, 252 Wagner 14 26.2
63% 218 Saint Thomas - Minneso 27 37.3, 229 Marist 7 32.0
63% 56 Minnesota 41 22.3, 102 Northwestern 14 18.4
63% 48 Washington 20 24.0, 63 Stanford 13 22.0
62% 95 Missouri State 32 26.6, 94 North Dakota 28 25.2
60% 216 South Carolina State 27 25.2, 233 North Carolina Central 24 23.5
60% 181 North Texas 30 28.8, 210 Rice 24 27.5
55% 101 Maryland 38 28.4, 96 Indiana 35 27.7
52% 223 Southern 38 26.8, 208 Alcorn State 35 26.6
52% 20 Auburn 31 35.4, 6 Mississippi 20 35.0
48% 221 Alabama A&M 42 30.8, 226 Alabama State 28 31.2
46% 224 Robert Morris 38 29.7, 200 Hampton 35 30.5
45% 142 Central Arkansas 38 34.0, 179 Jacksonville State 14 34.7
45% 61 Mississippi State 31 22.9, 29 Kentucky 17 23.6
45% 40 Wisconsin 27 16.9, 14 Iowa 7 17.7
44% 244 Texas Southern 59 34.7, 248 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 17 35.6
43% 125 Monmouth 35 27.5, 169 North Carolina A&T 16 28.4
41% 59 Brigham Young 66 29.8, 24 Virginia 49 31.0
38% 150 Western Illinois 38 27.9, 149 Illinois State 31 29.9
37% 201 Northern Arizona 38 32.8, 188 Idaho 31 35.3
37% 145 San Jose State 27 17.4, 126 Wyoming 21 20.4
37% 141 Georgia State 21 28.0, 171 Georgia Southern 14 30.9
37% 81 California 39 27.8, 41 Oregon State 25 30.0
37% 78 Virginia Tech 26 26.5, 84 Georgia Tech 17 28.7
37% 30 Baylor 31 33.7, 15 Texas 24 35.6
36% 168 Old Dominion 23 28.0, 121 Louisiana Tech 20 31.3
35% 190 Charleston Southern 27 26.1, 136 Campbell 14 31.0
35% 156 Richmond 35 18.3, 137 New Hampshire 21 22.8
35% 85 Dartmouth 20 20.1, 47 Harvard 17 26.6
35% 62 West Virginia 38 22.0, 8 Iowa State 31 26.8
35% 50 Fresno State 30 21.9, 42 San Diego State 20 26.9
35% 13 Michigan State 37 26.7, 4 Michigan 33 31.4
34% 185 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 20.7, 162 Duquesne 10 29.9
34% 158 Maine 45 24.7, 146 Rhode Island 24 30.7
33% 130 Navy 20 19.5, 103 Tulsa 17 29.5
32% 53 Miami - Florida 38 27.3, 9 Pittsburgh 34 38.4
28% 51 Purdue 28 16.9, 18 Nebraska 23 27.6
22% 83 Washington State 34 20.0, 34 Arizona State 21 31.6
14% 214 Western Carolina 41 24.4, 182 Wofford 21 39.9
12% 180 Bowling Green 56 17.6, 109 Buffalo 44 34.3
10% 118 William & Mary 31 16.2, 26 Villanova 18 36.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.60 48 0.96 13 1.13 13 0.89 23 1.07 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109 78 80.1 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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