2021 Week 11 (9-13 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 97%  66 Montana State           20 44.7,   193 Idaho                   13 14.0
 97%  37 Clemson                 44 46.6,   236 Connecticut              7  0.7
 97%   9 North Dakota State      49 41.8,   153 Youngstown State        17 14.8
 97%   3 Alabama                 59 67.3,   199 New Mexico State         3  9.8
 96%  84 Southeast Louisiana     56 53.6,   249 Northwestern State      28 19.1
 95% 165 McNeese State           44 44.8,   257 Houston Baptist          3 13.0
 95%  63 Texas - San Antonio     27 44.3,   235 Southern Mississippi    17 12.4
 95%  43 Harvard                 23 36.2,   174 Pennsylvania             7 10.3
 94% 172 Florida A&M             37 36.4,   251 Arkansas - Pine Bluff    7 16.0
 94% 160 Albany                  41 33.8,   250 Morgan State            14  7.7
 94% 108 Western Michigan        45 44.9,   203 Akron                   40 21.9
 94%  72 Dartmouth               41 34.9,   201 Cornell                  7  7.3
 94%  59 Fresno State            34 36.7,   182 New Mexico               7 11.4
 94%  30 Houston                 37 46.1,   215 Temple                   8 17.1
 94%   5 Utah                    38 39.8,   137 Arizona                 29 15.9
 93% 123 Monmouth                44 42.3,   214 Robert Morris            7 20.6
 93%  71 Army                    63 48.0,   254 Bucknell                10  9.5
 93%  36 Villanova               33 34.4,   150 Stony Brook             14 11.1
 93%  35 Kentucky                34 38.4,   190 Vanderbilt              17 12.9
 93%  33 Florida                 70 50.7,   155 Samford                 52 24.8
 93%  22 Boise State             23 36.0,   127 Wyoming                 13 12.2
 93%  10 Cincinnati              45 40.8,   126 South Florida           28 17.6
 92% 196 Sacred Heart            27 30.6,   253 Wagner                   0  9.1
 92% 143 Maine                   35 43.9,   239 Massachusetts           10 20.5
 92%  48 Appalachian State       31 39.4,   159 South Alabama            7 16.1
 92%   6 Wisconsin               35 31.3,   111 Northwestern             7  7.7
 92%   2 Ohio State              59 42.5,    24 Purdue                  31 18.8
 90%  51 Southern Illinois       47 39.5,   178 Indiana State           21 20.0
 90%  13 Oregon                  38 37.4,    73 Washington State        24 21.5
 89% 244 Marist                  57 45.0,   258 Presbyterian            32 21.8
 89%   8 Michigan State          40 42.5,   104 Maryland                21 22.4
 89%   1 Georgia                 41 37.8,    29 Tennessee               17 18.6
 88%  82 Virginia Tech           48 36.0,   135 Duke                    17 19.5
 88%  60 Western Kentucky        42 42.1,   208 Rice                    21 21.6
 88%  16 Oklahoma State          63 36.4,    78 Texas Christian         17 20.7
 86% 188 Jacksonville State      38 30.9,   248 Lamar                    7 15.1
 86% 133 Middle Tennessee State  50 37.9,   204 Florida International   10 23.2
 86%  41 California - Los Angel  44 36.5,   109 Colorado                20 22.2
 86%  19 James Madison           32 34.2,   110 William & Mary          22 19.8
 83% 101 Weber State             62 32.0,   210 Southern Utah            0 12.6
 82%  89 Kennesaw State          28 37.2,   187 North Alabama           24 19.9
 81% 152 Tennessee - Martin      42 33.9,   229 Tennessee Tech           3 21.8
 81% 138 Columbia                23 45.0,   202 Brown                   17 29.2
 79%  94 Toledo                  49 32.0,   170 Bowling Green           17 19.9
 77% 132 Louisiana Tech          42 35.1,   173 North Carolina - Charl  32 25.3
 77% 113 Montana                 30 33.7,   191 Northern Arizona         3 21.6
 75%  81 Sam Houston State       42 32.6,   164 Eastern Kentucky        28 17.6
 74% 179 Duquesne                31 31.0,   227 Central Connecticut     27 18.0
 74% 146 Jackson State           21 33.6,   221 Southern                17 21.3
 74% 122 East Tennessee State    56 41.2,   184 Western Carolina        35 29.8
 71%  80 Princeton               35 35.0,   100 Yale                    20 25.0
 70% 120 Sacramento State        49 33.3,   147 Portland State          20 24.3
 68% 243 Morehead State          36 34.0,   256 Stetson                 35 22.0
 68%  77 Louisiana - Lafayette   35 27.8,   142 Troy State              21 18.8
 67% 223 Valparaiso              47 31.2,   255 Butler                   3 21.6
 67% 200 Bryant                  52 37.1,   242 Long Island              7 23.4
 67% 157 Austin Peay             36 31.5,   212 Tennessee State          7 25.1
 67% 139 Richmond                51 22.5,   156 Delaware                27 14.4
 67%  56 San Diego State         23 31.2,    70 Nevada - Reno           21 23.9
 67%  52 Oregon State            35 38.0,    98 Stanford                14 29.4
 67%  46 Kansas State            34 25.5,    75 West Virginia           17 17.4
 67%  40 Iowa                    27 23.6,    64 Minnesota               22 14.6
 67%  18 Pittsburgh              30 44.6,    34 North Carolina          23 35.7
 67%  11 Wake Forest             45 38.6,    26 North Carolina State    42 31.6
 66% 207 Abilene Christian       29 45.2,   219 Tarleton State           3 30.9
 66% 118 Central Michigan        54 37.7,   141 Kent State              30 31.1
 66%  93 North Dakota            14 24.1,   129 Illinois State           7 16.7
 66%  54 Louisville              41 30.5,    68 Syracuse                 3 24.4
 65%  49 Air Force               35 25.9,    90 Colorado State          21 21.2
 64%  85 Utah State              48 26.8,   134 San Jose State          17 22.4
 64%  55 Eastern Washington      38 40.1,   107 California - Davis      20 37.2
 64%  15 Notre Dame              28 36.5,    42 Virginia                 3 32.3
 64%  14 Mississippi             29 29.7,    23 Texas A&M               19 25.2
 63% 181 North Carolina A&T      27 23.8,   213 South Carolina State    17 20.5
 63% 175 Charleston Southern     32 29.3,   185 Gardner - Webb          24 27.4
 63% 116 Miami - Ohio            45 28.8,   112 Buffalo                 18 25.9
 63%  69 East Carolina           30 33.0,    99 Memphis                 29 30.7
 63%  62 Southern Methodist      55 34.8,    79 Central Florida         28 31.9
 63%  57 Florida State           31 32.3,    44 Miami - Florida         28 30.2
 62% 245 Lehigh                  23 21.7,   220 Georgetown               9 19.8
 62%  97 Holy Cross              52 34.9,   117 Fordham                 24 33.1
 61% 205 Alabama A&M             52 43.3,   216 Texas Southern          49 41.3
 61% 166 North Texas             20 28.3,   154 Texas - El Paso         17 26.8
 61% 106 Tulsa                   20 29.3,   130 Tulane                  13 27.6
 59% 186 Georgia Southern        38 27.4,   195 Texas State - San Marc  30 26.0
 58% 103 Missouri                31 33.5,    91 South Carolina          28 32.5
 56% 169 Furman                  37 27.1,   119 Virginia Military       31 26.2
 55% 224 California Poly         32 28.6,   206 Idaho State             29 28.0
 55% 121 Northern Illinois       30 33.6,   115 Ball State              29 32.9
 55%   4 Michigan                21 26.4,    17 Penn State              17 25.8
 54% 222 The Citadel             45 25.1,   211 Wofford                 44 24.6
 54% 209 Alcorn State            31 27.5,   198 Prairie View            29 26.9
 51% 167 Rhode Island            28 25.5,   163 New Hampshire            3 25.4

 50% 125 Incarnate Word          27 33.7,   149 Nicholls State          23 33.7
 49% 218 Saint Thomas - Minneso  21 19.9,   252 Drake                   14 20.2
 41%  61 Missouri State          34 22.3,    53 Northern Iowa           27 23.9
 39%  39 Arizona State           35 19.3,    58 Washington              30 21.0
 38% 183 Arkansas State          27 39.5,   171 Northeast Louisiana     24 41.6
 37% 131 Elon                    37 23.7,   144 Towson                  14 25.6
 37%  27 Baylor                  27 32.9,    12 Oklahoma                14 35.0
 36% 247 Mississippi Valley Sta  44 21.5,   240 Alabama State           31 24.8
 36% 234 Dayton                  38 35.6,   180 Davidson                29 39.7
 36% 233 Delaware State          28 27.7,   192 Norfolk State           26 32.4
 36% 231 North Carolina Central  45 24.8,   228 Howard                  27 27.9
 36% 162 Nevada - Las Vegas      27 28.0,   128 Hawaii                  13 31.3
 36% 136 Stephen F. Austin       27 32.8,   140 Central Arkansas        14 36.6
 36%  96 Boston College          41 22.5,    83 Georgia Tech            30 26.7
 34% 151 Mercer                  10 20.4,    92 Tennessee - Chattanoog   6 27.2
 34% 145 Old Dominion            30 22.7,    95 Florida Atlantic        16 28.7
 34% 114 Rutgers                 38 20.1,    88 Indiana                  3 26.7
 34%  76 South Dakota            23 23.7,    20 South Dakota State      20 30.6
 34%  38 Arkansas                16 28.3,    31 Louisiana State         13 34.1
 33% 237 Murray State            28 26.7,   176 Southeast Missouri Sta  10 34.6
 33% 225 Colgate                 20 14.5,   189 Lafayette               13 24.6
 32% 232 Bethune - Cookman       31 22.3,   226 Grambling               14 31.6
 31%  47 Mississippi State       43 21.9,    21 Auburn                  34 31.4
 27%  86 Texas Tech              41 27.1,     7 Iowa State              38 38.5
 24% 168 Ohio                    34 27.8,    87 Eastern Michigan        26 39.9
 17% 105 Alabama - Birmingham    21 20.1,    45 Marshall                14 33.3
 14% 194 Hampton                 28 26.3,   161 Campbell                21 37.5
  9% 148 Georgia State           42 18.8,    50 Coastal Carolina        40 39.1
  3% 197 Kansas                  57 15.5,    28 Texas                   56 52.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               12 1.37  52 0.95  11 1.10  17 1.03  30 0.99   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 122  93  91.3 1.02

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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