prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 126 Incarnate Word 55 55.7, 257 Houston Baptist 14 18.2
97% 88 Central Florida 49 46.9, 230 Connecticut 17 12.7
97% 64 Coastal Carolina 35 45.2, 199 Texas State - San Marc 21 16.6
97% 58 Army 33 53.8, 245 Massachusetts 17 12.2
97% 49 Kentucky 56 48.9, 205 New Mexico State 16 14.6
97% 24 Boise State 37 39.7, 184 New Mexico 0 5.4
97% 21 James Madison 56 43.2, 159 Towson 10 14.7
97% 11 Mississippi 31 49.9, 188 Vanderbilt 17 13.7
97% 1 Georgia 56 48.5, 170 Charleston Southern 7 1.7
96% 83 Weber State 48 36.1, 231 Northern Colorado 17 5.4
96% 82 Holy Cross 45 46.6, 255 Bucknell 6 9.5
96% 34 Louisiana State 27 47.5, 185 Northeast Louisiana 14 14.1
94% 43 Eastern Washington 42 50.9, 163 Portland State 28 33.8
94% 30 Mississippi State 55 44.6, 227 Tennessee State 10 11.8
94% 20 Texas A&M 52 41.9, 202 Prairie View 3 9.0
94% 3 Alabama 42 43.2, 41 Arkansas 35 18.2
93% 234 Howard 56 44.6, 257 Houston Baptist 6 21.6
93% 54 Northern Iowa 41 38.5, 155 Western Illinois 3 14.3
93% 31 North Carolina 34 52.0, 217 Wofford 14 19.1
93% 5 Notre Dame 55 39.8, 90 Georgia Tech 0 17.4
92% 105 Tulsa 44 36.3, 212 Temple 10 13.4
92% 89 Texas Christian 31 45.8, 174 Kansas 28 24.5
92% 32 Tennessee 60 42.9, 161 South Alabama 14 18.2
91% 67 Dartmouth 52 44.6, 196 Brown 31 21.6
91% 4 Michigan 59 40.5, 99 Maryland 18 20.4
90% 147 Austin Peay 48 38.2, 240 Tennessee Tech 20 19.1
90% 131 Stephen F. Austin 42 36.7, 251 Lamar 6 11.0
90% 60 Marshall 49 37.8, 177 North Carolina - Charl 28 19.6
90% 15 Penn State 28 31.6, 91 Rutgers 0 12.1
89% 201 Alabama A&M 52 45.5, 252 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 28.9
89% 98 Miami - Ohio 34 35.8, 172 Bowling Green 7 17.9
89% 33 Louisville 62 39.0, 156 Duke 22 22.7
89% 28 Houston 31 41.7, 94 Memphis 13 26.2
89% 27 Brigham Young 34 40.5, 192 Georgia Southern 17 19.4
89% 2 Ohio State 56 47.1, 9 Michigan State 7 27.6
88% 220 Saint Thomas - Minneso 54 54.7, 258 Presbyterian 15 24.2
88% 69 Washington State 44 33.5, 133 Arizona 18 17.9
88% 38 Villanova 21 31.8, 165 Delaware 13 14.3
88% 13 North Dakota State 52 33.1, 65 South Dakota 24 14.7
87% 193 Duquesne 44 34.4, 253 Wagner 0 16.9
87% 122 Georgia State 28 41.9, 186 Arkansas State 20 27.0
87% 75 Sam Houston State 35 37.5, 198 Abilene Christian 9 20.0
87% 22 South Dakota State 24 31.3, 96 North Dakota 21 14.0
86% 169 Florida A&M 46 35.5, 219 Bethune - Cookman 21 20.7
86% 48 Iowa 33 26.2, 103 Illinois 23 9.8
86% 12 Cincinnati 48 41.4, 39 Southern Methodist 14 28.1
86% 6 Oklahoma State 23 38.5, 84 Texas Tech 0 25.1
85% 63 San Diego State 28 29.8, 146 Nevada - Las Vegas 20 15.5
84% 47 Missouri State 55 50.9, 235 Dixie State 24 18.9
83% 17 North Carolina State 41 31.8, 81 Syracuse 17 18.3
81% 50 Appalachian State 45 33.2, 137 Troy State 7 21.2
80% 190 Davidson 45 29.9, 250 Drake 14 15.0
80% 79 Princeton 34 31.2, 168 Pennsylvania 14 18.2
79% 153 Jackson State 24 31.6, 207 Alcorn State 10 17.1
75% 18 Pittsburgh 48 43.1, 62 Virginia 38 30.9
70% 158 Texas - El Paso 38 28.1, 204 Rice 28 17.0
70% 8 Wisconsin 35 26.1, 23 Nebraska 28 16.2
68% 29 Purdue 32 29.6, 125 Northwestern 14 18.5
67% 224 San Diego 41 27.6, 254 Stetson 16 16.9
67% 194 Sacred Heart 38 29.9, 248 Long Island 14 16.1
67% 124 Elon 43 28.3, 148 Rhode Island 28 20.4
67% 80 Toledo 35 33.5, 160 Ohio 23 24.3
67% 70 Western Kentucky 52 35.7, 112 Florida Atlantic 17 27.2
67% 40 Miami - Florida 38 32.3, 73 Virginia Tech 26 24.7
66% 166 North Texas 49 34.6, 213 Florida International 7 27.9
66% 152 Eastern Kentucky 39 29.6, 176 Jacksonville State 31 22.4
66% 149 Columbia 34 26.7, 200 Cornell 26 19.3
66% 113 East Tennessee State 38 27.9, 143 Mercer 35 21.6
66% 100 Kennesaw State 49 30.9, 111 Monmouth 17 24.6
66% 72 Texas - San Antonio 34 32.0, 93 Alabama - Birmingham 31 25.2
66% 71 East Carolina 38 27.5, 130 Navy 35 21.7
66% 59 Minnesota 35 26.5, 116 Indiana 14 19.5
66% 46 Harvard 34 30.5, 102 Yale 31 24.4
66% 7 Utah 38 36.6, 14 Oregon 7 30.2
65% 157 Kent State 38 39.1, 191 Akron 0 33.2
65% 141 Stony Brook 36 23.6, 164 Albany 14 18.3
65% 19 Oklahoma 28 34.8, 16 Iowa State 21 29.7
64% 242 Alabama State 24 36.1, 221 Texas Southern 21 32.0
64% 215 North Carolina Central 34 27.7, 229 Delaware State 28 23.8
63% 206 Northern Arizona 45 32.1, 226 California Poly 21 29.9
63% 182 Idaho 14 32.8, 209 Idaho State 0 30.5
63% 108 Eastern Michigan 22 38.6, 115 Western Michigan 21 36.4
61% 138 Tulane 45 30.7, 119 South Florida 14 29.2
59% 42 Clemson 48 34.1, 10 Wake Forest 27 32.7
57% 52 Air Force 41 29.1, 66 Nevada - Reno 39 28.2
55% 45 Oregon State 24 32.9, 37 Arizona State 10 32.3
52% 139 Maine 33 25.7, 173 New Hampshire 20 25.3
51% 76 California 41 22.0, 104 Stanford 11 21.9
49% 78 West Virginia 31 30.9, 51 Texas 23 31.1
47% 106 Montana 29 17.9, 85 Montana State 10 18.5
45% 56 Florida State 26 25.7, 86 Boston College 23 26.3
44% 25 Baylor 20 23.9, 36 Kansas State 10 24.8
40% 237 Lehigh 17 15.5, 203 Lafayette 10 17.4
40% 109 Central Michigan 37 29.8, 123 Ball State 17 31.3
38% 228 Murray State 20 21.3, 244 Eastern Illinois 13 22.9
37% 249 Morgan State 28 22.5, 233 Georgetown 21 24.8
37% 162 Furman 41 31.4, 145 Samford 34 34.2
37% 128 Northern Illinois 33 34.7, 134 Buffalo 27 38.2
37% 35 California - Los Angel 62 33.7, 57 Southern California 33 36.8
36% 225 Central Connecticut 24 19.9, 181 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 24.4
36% 175 North Alabama 35 32.4, 179 Hampton 27 36.8
36% 114 Sacramento State 27 22.4, 121 California - Davis 7 27.0
36% 77 Louisiana - Lafayette 42 24.2, 68 Liberty 14 27.4
35% 211 South Carolina State 31 25.9, 195 Norfolk State 21 31.5
35% 120 Richmond 20 21.3, 107 William & Mary 17 26.6
34% 197 Southeast Missouri Sta 31 27.2, 140 Tennessee - Martin 14 34.7
34% 142 Hawaii 50 25.5, 92 Colorado State 45 30.6
34% 132 Old Dominion 24 26.7, 117 Middle Tennessee State 17 31.9
33% 232 Tarleton State 24 30.7, 151 Central Arkansas 3 49.9
33% 223 Robert Morris 20 24.1, 171 Campbell 17 32.2
33% 216 Colgate 45 25.9, 135 Fordham 31 35.6
33% 127 Wyoming 44 21.4, 74 Utah State 17 30.9
33% 110 Colorado 20 16.8, 55 Washington 17 25.3
33% 95 South Carolina 21 21.7, 26 Auburn 17 29.9
30% 243 Morehead State 51 27.7, 208 Valparaiso 38 36.8
30% 101 Missouri 24 32.6, 44 Florida 23 41.8
27% 144 Nicholls State 45 35.0, 87 Southeast Louisiana 42 48.0
25% 189 Gardner - Webb 35 20.3, 180 North Carolina A&T 27 31.3
14% 187 Western Carolina 52 35.7, 129 Virginia Military 24 50.2
14% 178 Indiana State 15 13.2, 118 Illinois State 10 28.6
13% 256 Butler 28 11.6, 241 Marist 21 31.3
10% 214 Southern Mississippi 35 17.6, 136 Louisiana Tech 19 35.7
9% 154 Youngstown State 35 25.2, 53 Southern Illinois 18 45.9
8% 247 Northwestern State 24 10.5, 167 McNeese State 20 32.5
4% 218 The Citadel 24 10.5, 97 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 37.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.91 50 0.82 6 0.89 28 1.03 31 0.93 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 125 88 96.2 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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