prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 13 James Madison 59 53.4, 92 Southeast Louisiana 20 29.1
92% 9 North Dakota State 38 38.7, 71 Southern Illinois 7 17.6
86% 8 Cincinnati 35 39.1, 48 Houston 20 24.0
83% 155 Jackson State 27 32.5, 219 Prairie View 10 17.1
82% 3 Michigan 42 32.1, 41 Iowa 3 18.7
77% 88 Montana State 26 29.5, 130 Tennessee - Martin 7 17.9
76% 69 Sam Houston State 49 40.9, 122 Incarnate Word 42 28.6
75% 46 Villanova 21 32.7, 94 Holy Cross 16 21.4
74% 20 South Dakota State 24 34.9, 102 Sacramento State 19 23.5
66% 64 California 24 30.3, 73 Southern California 14 24.9
66% 6 Utah 38 34.6, 22 Oregon 10 28.4
60% 12 Pittsburgh 45 43.4, 14 Wake Forest 21 41.9
58% 51 Louisiana - Lafayette 24 26.8, 43 Appalachian State 16 25.6
49% 127 Northern Illinois 41 39.2, 121 Kent State 23 39.3
40% 90 Montana 57 30.6, 49 Eastern Washington 41 31.9
36% 103 East Tennessee State 32 24.5, 83 Kennesaw State 31 28.8
34% 89 Texas - San Antonio 49 33.2, 27 Western Kentucky 41 40.1
34% 29 Baylor 21 19.1, 7 Oklahoma State 16 26.5
34% 4 Alabama 41 21.3, 1 Georgia 24 29.8
30% 80 Utah State 46 19.1, 52 San Diego State 13 28.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.88 7 0.43 4 1.32 3 1.19 2 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 20 13 14.3 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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