prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 17 James Madison 68 69.7, 249 Morehead State 10 17.1
73% 16 Auburn 60 57.2, 238 Akron 10 11.9
72% 51 Pittsburgh 51 60.8, 244 Massachusetts 7 19.1
70% 73 San Diego State 28 45.6, 256 New Mexico State 10 5.9
70% 30 Arizona State 41 53.8, 220 Southern Utah 14 16.2
69% 141 Richmond 38 54.0, 253 Howard 14 25.7
69% 54 Tennessee 38 54.5, 242 Bowling Green 6 17.0
69% 39 Kentucky 45 52.9, 221 Northeast Louisiana 10 19.3
69% 26 Oklahoma State 23 53.0, 202 Missouri State 16 22.3
69% 10 Texas A&M 41 55.2, 112 Kent State 10 27.9
69% 8 Florida 35 50.1, 128 Florida Atlantic 14 20.9
68% 153 Holy Cross 38 42.4, 254 Connecticut 28 15.1
68% 132 Youngstown State 44 53.8, 225 Incarnate Word 41 31.1
68% 129 Illinois State 49 46.3, 250 Butler 7 16.8
68% 102 Georgia Southern 30 47.8, 235 Gardner - Webb 25 22.9
68% 86 Towson 31 47.4, 234 Morgan State 0 24.5
68% 78 South Carolina 46 44.3, 215 Eastern Illinois 0 21.9
68% 74 Colorado 35 48.7, 222 Northern Colorado 7 24.8
68% 65 Southern Methodist 56 52.1, 210 Abilene Christian 9 32.2
68% 62 Air Force 35 43.7, 218 Lafayette 14 20.0
68% 53 Buffalo 69 49.9, 236 Wagner 7 23.1
68% 36 Wake Forest 42 52.8, 194 Old Dominion 10 26.1
68% 34 Texas Christian 45 47.4, 195 Duquesne 3 21.2
68% 24 North Dakota State 28 47.0, 110 Albany 6 23.3
68% 14 Cincinnati 49 47.3, 127 Miami - Ohio 14 21.0
68% 12 Brigham Young 24 49.6, 122 Arizona 16 26.4
68% 4 Oklahoma 40 52.7, 49 Tulane 35 33.9
68% 1 Alabama 44 53.0, 31 Miami - Florida 13 27.8
67% 83 Eastern Washington 35 52.8, 187 Nevada - Las Vegas 33 36.3
67% 72 Liberty 48 47.5, 197 Campbell 7 28.2
67% 57 Boston College 51 44.3, 198 Colgate 0 24.5
67% 45 Mississippi State 35 45.0, 139 Louisiana Tech 34 26.1
67% 44 Coastal Carolina 52 46.5, 183 The Citadel 14 27.2
67% 32 Michigan 47 53.0, 99 Western Michigan 14 35.5
67% 11 Texas 38 50.5, 50 Louisiana - Lafayette 18 33.2
67% 2 Ohio State 45 50.9, 35 Minnesota 31 33.7
66% 165 Florida International 48 47.7, 251 Long Island 10 29.8
66% 105 Toledo 49 47.0, 212 Norfolk State 10 31.1
66% 97 Sacramento State 19 68.1, 245 Dixie State 7 49.5
66% 93 Nebraska 52 41.7, 204 Fordham 7 26.2
66% 68 Ball State 31 47.5, 209 Western Illinois 21 29.5
66% 66 North Carolina State 45 46.0, 149 South Florida 0 29.3
66% 61 Arkansas 38 42.4, 142 Rice 17 26.5
66% 43 Baylor 29 46.1, 147 Texas State - San Marc 20 29.8
66% 41 Missouri 34 46.6, 108 Central Michigan 24 30.0
66% 22 Southern California 30 44.0, 76 San Jose State 7 27.9
66% 21 Oregon 31 38.9, 63 Fresno State 24 24.4
66% 15 Utah 40 40.4, 85 Weber State 17 24.0
66% 7 Notre Dame 41 44.5, 89 Florida State 38 30.0
65% 180 Sacred Heart 21 39.6, 229 Bucknell 0 26.0
65% 169 Samford 52 51.3, 213 Tennessee Tech 14 40.4
65% 160 Rhode Island 45 45.6, 230 Bryant 21 32.3
65% 150 Southeast Louisiana 49 47.9, 211 North Alabama 28 36.3
65% 95 Villanova 47 44.1, 216 Lehigh 3 30.4
65% 91 Memphis 42 42.9, 159 Nicholls State 17 31.9
65% 69 South Dakota State 42 45.7, 126 Colorado State 23 31.4
65% 48 Appalachian State 33 44.7, 123 East Carolina 19 31.9
65% 42 Virginia 43 42.8, 136 William & Mary 0 28.5
65% 13 Iowa State 16 38.5, 106 Northern Iowa 10 22.6
64% 189 Stephen F. Austin 20 60.5, 247 Tarleton State 10 49.1
64% 178 Grambling 16 41.7, 217 Tennessee State 10 33.7
64% 176 Eastern Kentucky 31 41.6, 233 Western Carolina 28 32.9
64% 70 Army 43 38.7, 120 Georgia State 10 30.5
64% 33 Central Florida 36 49.1, 46 Boise State 31 40.7
64% 6 Iowa 34 35.9, 18 Indiana 6 26.9
63% 115 Troy State 55 40.1, 185 Southern 3 32.5
63% 92 Rutgers 61 38.9, 151 Temple 14 30.9
60% 162 New Mexico 27 47.9, 172 Houston Baptist 17 43.4
60% 152 North Dakota 35 40.2, 192 Idaho State 14 34.8
60% 137 Texas - El Paso 38 29.4, 208 Bethune - Cookman 28 24.0
59% 186 North Texas 44 50.1, 224 Northwestern State 14 45.8
59% 168 South Alabama 31 37.4, 179 Southern Mississippi 7 32.5
59% 87 Marshall 49 30.7, 145 Navy 7 25.3
58% 116 Eastern Michigan 35 38.2, 184 Saint Francis - Pennsy 15 33.8
56% 84 Alabama - Birmingham 31 35.6, 148 Jacksonville State 0 32.0
56% 29 Mississippi 43 45.6, 47 Louisville 24 42.8
55% 58 Purdue 30 43.9, 56 Oregon State 21 41.4
52% 77 Texas Tech 38 43.4, 88 Houston 21 42.4
50% 173 Hawaii 49 33.7, 171 Portland State 35 33.9
50% 130 Southern Illinois 47 35.8, 140 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 35.6
50% 111 Furman 29 36.1, 96 North Carolina A&T 18 36.0
50% 100 Wofford 24 33.0, 114 Elon 22 32.9
48% 177 Sam Houston State 42 41.1, 158 Northern Arizona 16 42.2
47% 131 Arkansas State 40 44.1, 121 Central Arkansas 21 45.4
47% 119 New Hampshire 27 27.3, 133 Stony Brook 21 28.9
46% 98 Wyoming 19 29.2, 75 Montana State 16 31.6
46% 59 Kansas State 24 34.8, 38 Stanford 7 37.2
46% 52 Virginia Tech 17 42.2, 23 North Carolina 10 44.2
46% 27 California - Los Angel 38 36.8, 19 Louisiana State 27 38.8
40% 109 Syracuse 29 34.7, 101 Ohio 9 39.8
40% 81 Maryland 30 31.7, 37 West Virginia 24 37.0
39% 226 Virginia Military 45 41.4, 207 Davidson 24 46.8
39% 164 Kansas 17 38.3, 146 South Dakota 14 44.0
38% 227 Alabama A&M 42 30.6, 167 South Carolina State 41 37.5
38% 196 East Tennessee State 23 27.5, 135 Vanderbilt 3 34.5
38% 5 Georgia 10 33.8, 3 Clemson 3 40.3
37% 181 Austin Peay 30 28.1, 157 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 35.1
37% 154 North Carolina - Charl 31 36.4, 104 Duke 28 43.0
37% 143 Delaware 34 33.2, 113 Maine 24 40.0
37% 103 California - Davis 19 33.1, 55 Tulsa 17 39.9
36% 94 Nevada - Reno 22 27.9, 64 California 17 36.2
36% 20 Penn State 16 27.8, 9 Wisconsin 10 37.7
35% 237 Jackson State 7 31.1, 182 Florida A&M 6 42.7
35% 188 Middle Tennessee State 50 36.9, 117 Monmouth 15 48.6
35% 156 Northern Illinois 22 30.0, 107 Georgia Tech 21 42.5
35% 125 Texas - San Antonio 37 28.5, 67 Illinois 30 39.2
35% 79 Michigan State 38 22.2, 28 Northwestern 21 34.7
35% 60 Montana 13 30.9, 25 Washington 7 42.7
34% 170 California Poly 28 32.1, 124 San Diego 17 47.8
32% 155 Utah State 26 30.8, 40 Washington State 23 51.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
23 1.02 83 1.17 4 1.36 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 81 70.3 1.15
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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