2021 Bowl Games Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 90%  53 Fresno State            31 36.3,   159 Texas - El Paso         24 17.2
 90%  26 Wake Forest             38 42.6,   113 Rutgers                 10 26.3
 83%  63 Coastal Carolina        47 40.3,   123 Northern Illinois       41 28.0
 69%   2 Ohio State              48 38.8,     6 Utah                    45 29.7
 67%  98 Miami - Ohio            27 33.7,   130 North Texas             14 26.7
 67%  90 Liberty                 56 34.1,   118 Eastern Michigan        20 27.6
 67%  87 Tulsa                   30 32.5,   126 Old Dominion            17 22.9
 67%   3 Alabama                 27 35.1,     8 Cincinnati               6 26.0
 67%   1 Georgia                 34 29.6,     4 Michigan                11 20.3
 66%  50 Louisiana - Lafayette   36 28.3,    77 Marshall                21 22.9
 66%  14 Oklahoma                47 36.0,    27 Oregon                  32 31.3
 66%  13 Wisconsin               20 26.3,    40 Arizona State           13 19.3
 65% 107 Wyoming                 52 33.0,   136 Kent State              38 28.3
 64%  69 San Diego State         38 27.9,    86 Texas - San Antonio     24 23.5
 64%   7 North Dakota State      20 28.9,    10 James Madison           14 24.1
 63%  65 Army                    24 34.0,    92 Missouri                22 30.7
 63%  41 Minnesota               18 24.7,    70 West Virginia            6 21.8
 63%  22 Kentucky                20 25.6,    46 Iowa                    17 22.2
 63%  15 Clemson                 20 24.8,    16 Iowa State              13 22.6
 55%  42 Air Force               31 29.6,    55 Louisville              28 28.9
 54% 119 Georgia State           51 27.0,   129 Ball State              20 26.5
 52%  23 Baylor                  21 28.8,    21 Mississippi              7 28.5
 
 46%  51 Kansas State            42 23.0,    48 Louisiana State         20 23.5
 38%  36 Western Kentucky        59 32.0,    45 Appalachian State       38 34.2
 36% 103 Western Michigan        52 34.1,    49 Nevada - Reno           24 38.2
 36%  44 Houston                 17 28.1,    31 Auburn                  13 31.9
 36%   9 Oklahoma State          37 21.6,     5 Notre Dame              35 25.4
 35%  67 Montana State           31 23.1,    17 South Dakota State      17 28.1
 35%  28 Purdue                  48 30.2,    25 Tennessee               45 35.2
 34%  79 Central Florida         29 27.4,    47 Florida                 17 34.1
 34%  37 Arkansas                24 22.2,    11 Penn State              10 27.8
 34%  24 Michigan State          31 28.6,    12 Pittsburgh              21 35.3
 33% 210 South Carolina State    31 16.4,   157 Jackson State           10 25.5
 33%  91 Maryland                54 26.3,    66 Virginia Tech           10 33.7
 33%  62 Utah State              24 31.0,    38 Oregon State            13 37.9
 32%  78 Texas Tech              34 28.1,    33 Mississippi State        7 36.3
 31%  88 Central Michigan        24 25.1,    39 Washington State        21 34.8
 29% 121 Middle Tennessee State  31 24.1,    71 Toledo                  24 33.3
 27%  94 Alabama - Birmingham    31 24.8,    35 Brigham Young           28 36.1
 18% 108 South Carolina          38 25.4,    32 North Carolina          21 38.0

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 1.39  30 0.81   2 0.00   3 0.79   1 1.11   0 0.00
                
  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  40  22  26.7 0.82

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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