25 Sep 2022: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2022 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

FBS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  6  16  9.2  7.8 Georgia                 
  2  7  15 10.4  6.4 Ohio State              
  3  7  15  9.7  6.9 Alabama                 
  4  9  11  9.1  6.4 Michigan                
  5 27  11  9.1  6.4 James Madison           
  6 28  10  9.1  6.4 Cincinnati              
  7 17  10  9.3  6.0 Oklahoma                
  8 22  10  8.7  6.6 Penn State              
  9 13  10  8.9  6.4 Utah                    
 10 48  10  8.6  6.7 Notre Dame              
 11 20  10  8.7  6.5 Clemson                 
 12 40  10  9.1  6.1 Oklahoma State          
 13 19  10  9.4  5.7 Tennessee               
 14 17   9  8.9  6.2 Mississippi             
 15 19   9  8.4  6.6 Minnesota               
 16 17   9  8.5  6.5 Baylor                  
 17 31   9  8.4  6.6 Wisconsin               
 18 24   9  9.0  6.0 Florida State           
 19 29   9  9.0  6.0 Pittsburgh              
 20 42   9  9.0  5.9 Arkansas                
 21 74   8  7.7  7.1 Illinois                
 22 32   8  8.4  6.5 Iowa State              
 23 28   8  9.0  5.8 Southern California     
 24 32   8  7.7  7.1 Texas A&M               
 25 71   8  9.2  5.6 Oregon                  
 26 24   8  9.8  5.1 Wake Forest             
 27 22   8  9.0  5.8 Texas                   
 28 15   8  8.4  6.3 Louisiana State         
 29 42   8  8.6  6.1 Michigan State          
 30 14   7  8.3  6.3 Kentucky                
 31 50   7  9.2  5.3 Western Kentucky        
 32 15   7  8.2  6.3 North Carolina State    
 33 45   7  8.8  5.7 Oregon State            
 34 31   7  8.5  6.0 Mississippi State       
 35 32   7  8.7  5.8 Brigham Young           
 36 15   7  8.0  6.5 Kansas State            
 37 28   7 10.2  4.3 North Carolina          
 38 21   7  8.3  6.1 Washington              
 39 41   7  9.0  5.5 California - Los Angeles
 40 31   7  8.8  5.6 Appalachian State       
 41 46   7  8.4  6.0 Air Force               
 42 42   6  7.4  6.9 Iowa                    
 43 60   6  8.6  5.7 Purdue                  
 44 25   6  8.4  5.8 Miami - Florida         
 45 44   6  8.5  5.7 Florida                 
 46 53   6  8.6  5.6 Maryland                
 47 52   6  8.1  6.1 Auburn                  
 48 15   6  8.3  5.9 West Virginia           
 49 50   6  8.2  5.9 Washington State        
 50 30   5  8.2  5.9 Louisville              
 51 27   5  8.7  5.3 Coastal Carolina        
 52 28   5  8.6  5.4 Texas Christian         
 53 18   5  8.2  5.8 Central Florida         
 54 44   5  8.7  5.2 Southern Methodist      
 55 46   5  8.0  5.8 Syracuse                
 56 39   5  7.7  6.2 California              
 57 29   5  8.5  5.4 Texas Tech              
 58 53   5  8.4  5.4 Houston                 
 59 52   4  8.1  5.7 Army                    
 60 33   4  7.9  5.9 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 61 77   4  8.2  5.5 Fresno State            
 62 54   4  8.4  5.3 Tulsa                   
 63 61   4  8.1  5.5 Virginia                
 64 52   4  8.0  5.6 Indiana                 
 65 35   4  8.0  5.6 South Carolina          
 66 45   4  7.7  5.9 Boise State             
 67 51   3  7.9  5.7 Marshall                
 68 35   3  7.6  5.9 Arizona State           
 69 34   3  8.3  5.1 Missouri                
 70 42   3  7.9  5.5 Liberty                 
 71 58   3  8.4  5.0 Texas - San Antonio     
 72 52   3  7.9  5.5 Tulane                  
 73 47   3  7.9  5.5 Vanderbilt              
 74 67   3  8.1  5.3 Wyoming                 
 75 49   3  8.3  5.0 Memphis                 
 76 50   3  8.1  5.3 East Carolina           
 77 37   3  7.6  5.7 Alabama - Birmingham    
 78 68   3  8.5  4.8 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 79 53   3  8.0  5.2 Middle Tennessee State  
 80 44   2  7.3  6.0 San Diego State         
 81 63   2  8.2  5.0 Central Michigan        
 82 33   2  7.9  5.3 Toledo                  
 83 55   2  8.6  4.6 Kansas                  
 84 49   2  7.9  5.1 Stanford                
 85 69   2  8.3  4.7 Kent State              
 86 24   2  7.4  5.7 Virginia Tech           
 87 24   1  7.5  5.5 Boston College          
 88 62   1  7.6  5.4 South Alabama           
 89 38   1  7.3  5.7 Rutgers                 
 90 38   1  7.9  4.9 Arizona                 
 91 46   1  7.5  5.4 Miami - Ohio            
 92 44   1  7.8  5.1 Buffalo                 
 93 58   1  7.8  5.0 Duke                    
 94 54   1  8.2  4.5 Northern Illinois       
 95 57   0  7.7  5.0 Western Michigan        
 96 41   0  7.6  5.1 Florida Atlantic        
 97 41   0  8.1  4.5 Eastern Michigan        
 98 65   0  7.1  5.5 Navy                    
 99 41   0  7.2  5.4 Troy State              
100 55   0  6.9  5.6 San Jose State          
101 64   0  7.3  5.2 Colorado                
102 47   0  7.6  4.9 Georgia State           
103 49   0  7.3  5.2 Old Dominion            
104 44   0  7.7  4.8 Georgia Southern        
105 36   0  8.0  4.4 Nebraska                
106 42   0  7.3  5.1 Ball State              
107 41   0  7.2  5.2 Georgia Tech            
108 49   0  7.6  4.6 South Florida           
109 33   0  7.2  5.1 Nevada - Reno           
110 41   0  7.6  4.6 Ohio                    
111 42  -1  7.9  4.2 Arkansas State          
112 47  -1  7.3  4.8 Rice                    
113 56  -1  7.2  4.9 Southern Mississippi    
114 33  -1  6.8  5.2 Northwestern            
115 44  -1  7.7  4.2 Louisiana Tech          
116 49  -1  6.7  5.3 New Mexico              
117 58  -1  7.2  4.7 Colorado State          
118 52  -2  6.6  5.3 Texas - El Paso         
119 53  -2  7.3  4.5 Bowling Green           
120 48  -2  7.2  4.6 Northeast Louisiana     
121 27  -3  6.4  5.2 Utah State              
122 36  -3  7.4  4.0 North Texas             
123 36  -3  6.9  4.5 Texas State - San Marcos
124 38  -4  7.7  3.6 North Carolina - Charlot
125 45  -3  6.3  5.0 Temple                  
126 34  -5  7.0  3.9 Connecticut             
127 33  -5  6.7  4.2 New Mexico State        
128 34  -5  6.6  4.2 Akron                   
129 22  -7  6.5  3.9 Florida International   
130 17  -7  7.0  3.2 Hawaii                  
131 16  -8  6.3  3.6 Massachusetts           

FCS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1 13   9  8.6  6.5 North Dakota State      
  2 33   5  8.2  5.9 South Dakota State      
  3 35   5  7.9  6.1 Montana                 
  4 33   5  8.2  5.7 Montana State           
  5 35   5  8.0  5.8 Harvard                 
  6 50   4  7.6  6.0 Dartmouth               
  7 51   4  7.9  5.7 Princeton               
  8 42   4  7.6  5.9 Weber State             
  9 30   4  8.8  4.7 Southeast Louisiana     
 10 35   3  7.4  6.1 Northern Iowa           
 11 75   4  9.0  4.5 Eastern Washington      
 12 30   3  7.9  5.6 Holy Cross              
 13 46   3  8.0  5.5 Sacramento State        
 14 44   3  8.1  5.3 Villanova               
 15 40   3  7.4  6.0 Mercer                  
 16 39   3  8.6  4.7 Incarnate Word          
 17 56   3  7.7  5.6 Jacksonville State      
 18 48   2  7.6  5.6 Richmond                
 19 33   2  8.1  5.1 Missouri State          
 20 47   2  7.3  5.8 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 21 37   2  7.7  5.4 William & Mary          
 22 56   2  7.9  5.1 Yale                    
 23 34   2  7.5  5.6 Elon                    
 24 32   2  7.5  5.5 South Dakota            
 25 54   2  6.6  6.5 Austin Peay             
 26 42   2  8.0  5.0 Southern Illinois       
 27 47   1  7.6  5.4 California - Davis      
 28 73   1  7.5  5.4 Kennesaw State          
 29 64   1  7.6  5.3 Sam Houston State       
 30 60   1  7.1  5.8 Delaware                
 31 41   1  8.0  4.7 Monmouth                
 32 31   1  7.4  5.3 East Tennessee State    
 33 59   1  7.7  5.0 Youngstown State        
 34 37   0  7.3  5.3 North Dakota            
 35 54   0  7.5  5.1 Tennessee - Martin      
 36 76   0  7.3  5.3 Columbia                
 37 44   0  7.1  5.5 Furman                  
 38 45   0  8.6  4.0 Fordham                 
 39 45   0  7.5  4.9 Rhode Island            
 40 55   0  6.8  5.7 Illinois State          
 41 74   0  7.0  5.4 Jackson State           
 42 34   0  7.7  4.7 Eastern Kentucky        
 43 37   0  7.7  4.7 Southeast Missouri State
 44 24   0  7.9  4.4 Samford                 
 45 49   0  7.4  4.8 Idaho                   
 46 40   0  7.0  5.2 New Hampshire           
 47 47  -1  7.5  4.6 Albany                  
 48 57  -1  7.2  5.0 Maine                   
 49 51  -1  8.2  3.8 Western Carolina        
 50 34  -1  7.6  4.4 Portland State          
 51 48  -1  6.6  5.4 Pennsylvania            
 52 39  -1  7.4  4.5 Central Arkansas        
 53 64  -2  6.9  4.9 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 54 45  -2  6.9  4.9 North Carolina A&T      
 55 60  -2  6.5  5.3 Stony Brook             
 56 22  -2  7.0  4.7 Campbell                
 57 24  -2  7.4  4.3 Virginia Military       
 58 48  -2  6.9  4.8 Towson                  
 59 32  -2  6.8  4.8 Northern Arizona        
 60 86  -3  7.6  4.0 Davidson                
 61 33  -3  7.1  4.4 Nicholls State          
 62 52  -3  6.1  5.5 Sacred Heart            
 63 37  -3  7.1  4.4 North Carolina Central  
 64 44  -3  7.9  3.6 Brown                   
 65 32  -3  6.5  5.0 Indiana State           
 66 37  -3  6.7  4.8 South Carolina State    
 67 16  -3  6.8  4.6 Charleston Southern     
 68 34  -3  7.2  4.1 Gardner - Webb          
 69 26  -3  6.4  4.9 Cornell                 
 70 39  -3  6.6  4.7 Prairie View            
 71 55  -4  6.9  4.4 Bryant                  
 72 34  -4  7.1  4.1 Western Illinois        
 73 35  -4  6.3  4.9 Colgate                 
 74 61  -4  6.7  4.5 Southern Utah           
 75 39  -4  7.1  4.0 North Alabama           
 76 45  -4  6.4  4.8 McNeese State           
 77 52  -4  6.5  4.7 Abilene Christian       
 78 36  -4  7.0  4.1 Stephen F. Austin       
 79 24  -4  6.5  4.6 The Citadel             
 80 48  -4  6.2  4.9 Wofford                 
 81 46  -4  6.5  4.6 Alcorn State            
 82 23  -5  6.6  4.4 Hampton                 
 83 61  -5  7.0  3.9 Dayton                  
 84 65  -5  6.4  4.5 San Diego               
 85 86  -5  6.7  4.2 Valparaiso              
 86 95  -5  7.0  3.8 Tarleton State          
 87 35  -5  6.8  4.0 California Poly         
 88 21  -5  5.6  5.3 Lafayette               
 89 21  -5  6.2  4.6 Tennessee State         
 90 22  -6  5.9  4.9 Lehigh                  
 91 20  -6  6.3  4.3 Central Connecticut     
 92 28  -6  6.6  4.0 Southern                
 93 18  -6  6.3  4.3 Eastern Illinois        
 94 51  -6  6.0  4.6 Duquesne                
 95 **  -6  7.0  3.4 Dixie State             
 96 16  -6  6.5  4.0 Norfolk State           
 97 16  -6  6.2  4.4 Robert Morris           
 98 20  -6  6.1  4.4 Georgetown              
 99 **  -7  6.5  4.0 Saint Thomas - Minnesota
100 **  -7  8.1  2.1 Stonehill               
101 **  -7  8.1  2.1 Texas A&M-Commerce      
102 **  -7  8.1  2.1 Merrimack               
103 32  -7  6.6  3.8 Bethune - Cookman       
104 **  -7  7.9  2.3 Lindenwood              
105 66  -7  6.2  4.2 Grambling               
106 23  -7  6.0  4.4 Murray State            
107 16  -7  6.8  3.5 Alabama A&M             
108 57  -7  6.1  4.3 Morgan State            
109 37  -7  6.8  3.5 Texas Southern          
110 59  -7  6.1  4.3 Northern Colorado       
111 27  -7  6.2  4.1 Delaware State          
112 70  -7  5.3  5.0 Alabama State           
113 15  -8  6.1  4.0 Tennessee Tech          
114 34  -8  6.1  4.0 Idaho State             
115 74  -8  6.4  3.6 Long Island             
116 13  -8  6.4  3.5 Howard                  
117 53  -8  5.5  4.4 Drake                   
118 40 -10  7.2  2.4 Morehead State          
119 13  -9  5.5  4.4 Bucknell                
120 11  -9  5.9  3.9 Mississippi Valley State
121 28 -10  6.2  3.4 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
122 43  -9  5.5  4.2 Marist                  
123 37 -10  6.1  3.5 Northwestern State      
124 70 -10  6.0  3.5 Florida A&M             
125 53 -10  5.7  3.7 Wagner                  
126 33 -10  5.6  3.8 Lamar                   
127 60 -10  5.5  3.9 Stetson                 
128 67 -11  5.8  3.4 Butler                  
129 32 -12  5.3  3.6 Houston Baptist         
130 10 -16  6.0  1.8 Presbyterian            

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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