2022 Week 2 (8-10 Sep) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 89%   4 Michigan                56 65.5,   246 Hawaii                  10  4.9
 88%  62 Montana State           63 58.3,   248 Morehead State          13 13.8
 88%   1 Georgia                 33 68.6,   163 Samford                  0  8.9
 86%  12 James Madison           63 59.9,   203 Norfolk State            7 10.5
 86%   3 Ohio State              45 67.8,   167 Arkansas State          12 17.0
 83%  64 Maryland                56 50.8,   243 North Carolina - Charl  21 17.9
 81%  30 California - Los Angel  45 47.6,   219 Alabama State            7 13.7
 80%  70 San Diego State         38 47.1,   230 Idaho State              7 10.9
 80%   7 Utah                    73 57.9,   218 Southern Utah            7  8.5
 79%  54 Southern Methodist      45 60.3,   255 Lamar                   16 14.5
 78% 140 Austin Peay             41 40.7,   245 Mississippi Valley Sta   0  6.9
 78%  18 Michigan State          52 55.5,   213 Akron                    0 11.3
 77%  86 Toledo                  55 51.9,   240 Massachusetts           10 13.7
 77%  61 Villanova               38 54.4,   252 Long Island             21 12.7
 77%   8 Oklahoma                33 61.7,   129 Kent State               3 24.5
 75%  29 Miami - Florida         30 52.0,   181 Southern Mississippi     7 12.3
 74%  11 North Dakota State      43 46.8,   164 North Carolina A&T       3  7.7
 73% 105 Jacksonville State      34 38.3,   223 Murray State             3 14.6
 73%  69 Texas Christian         59 56.7,   228 Tarleton State          17 20.7
 72% 144 South Florida           42 41.9,   231 Howard                  20 24.1
 72% 143 Towson                  29 40.6,   251 Morgan State            21 11.8
 72%  43 Louisiana State         65 55.8,   217 Southern                17 20.3
 72%  20 Mississippi             59 51.5,   166 Central Arkansas         3 22.1
 72%  15 Penn State              46 46.9,   152 Ohio                    10 14.5
 71% 107 Rutgers                 66 43.3,   256 Wagner                   7 12.7
 71%  56 Washington              52 41.7,   159 Portland State           6 17.2
 71%  52 Coastal Carolina        31 52.8,   190 Gardner - Webb          27 24.8
 71%  39 Minnesota               62 47.6,   169 Western Illinois        10 20.0
 71%  33 North Carolina State    55 42.7,   174 Charleston Southern      3 14.9
 71%  32 Purdue                  56 41.5,   170 Indiana State            0 14.8
 71%  31 Auburn                  24 38.4,   149 San Jose State          16 10.1
 71%  27 North Carolina          35 65.0,   113 Georgia State           28 49.2
 71%  10 Clemson                 35 44.1,   136 Furman                  12 11.7
 70% 114 Wyoming                 33 41.5,   226 Northern Colorado       10 22.7
 70%  97 Syracuse                48 33.9,   175 Connecticut             14 19.7
 70%  42 Boise State             31 36.8,   172 New Mexico              14 13.9
 69%   6 Cincinnati              63 39.5,    87 Kennesaw State          10 18.7
 68% 150 Delaware                35 38.5,   237 Delaware State           9 17.1
 68% 111 Miami - Ohio            31 37.6,   216 Robert Morris           14 18.4
 68%  76 California              20 37.8,   122 Nevada - Las Vegas      14 24.1
 68%  44 South Dakota State      24 37.6,   118 California - Davis      22 19.1
 67% 168 Virginia Military       24 39.4,   253 Bucknell                14 22.0
 67%  46 Louisiana - Lafayette   49 40.5,   119 Eastern Michigan        21 23.4
 66% 142 Illinois State          28 38.1,   225 Valparaiso              21 20.0
 66% 135 Youngstown State        49 45.7,   215 Dayton                  16 30.8
 66% 115 Georgia Tech            35 44.9,   176 Western Carolina        17 30.8
 66% 109 Tulane                  52 39.9,   209 Alcorn State             0 23.8
 66%  81 Weber State             35 33.0,   145 Utah State               7 19.5
 66%   2 Alabama                 20 47.6,    23 Texas                   19 32.2
 65% 154 Troy State              38 40.1,   211 Alabama A&M             17 26.2
 65% 131 Tennessee - Chattanoog  38 30.5,   241 Eastern Illinois        20 14.1
 65% 117 William & Mary          37 36.7,   173 Campbell                21 20.9
 65% 116 Elon                    26 35.3,   200 Wofford                  0 20.2
 65% 102 Indiana                 35 37.4,   171 Idaho                   22 23.2
 65%  92 East Carolina           39 37.5,   138 Old Dominion            21 24.2
 65%  40 Mississippi State       39 37.9,   127 Arizona                 17 23.3
 65%  24 Arkansas                44 36.5,    85 South Carolina          30 22.1
 64% 198 North Texas             59 37.0,   242 Texas Southern          27 27.8
 64% 124 Richmond                31 31.3,   188 Saint Francis - Pennsy  21 17.2
 64%  50 Air Force               41 32.8,   100 Colorado                10 19.1
 64%   9 Oklahoma State          34 34.9,    41 Arizona State           17 20.8
 63% 233 Lindenwood              21 68.8,   259 Houston Baptist         20 50.7
 63%  82 Montana                 24 30.9,   106 South Dakota             7 18.6
 63%  80 Tulsa                   38 41.2,   120 Northern Illinois       35 28.9
 63%  36 Kansas State            40 36.2,    75 Missouri                12 25.2
 62% 160 Eastern Kentucky        59 33.8,   192 Bowling Green           57 23.7
 61% 201 Texas - El Paso         20 25.5,   214 New Mexico State        13 22.4
 61%  99 Holy Cross              37 37.7,   125 Buffalo                 31 27.9
 60% 177 Jackson State           16 30.9,   220 Tennessee State          3 22.6
 59%  47 Southern California     41 36.4,    98 Stanford                28 30.2
 58% 238 Grambling               47 27.1,   247 Northwestern State      21 20.9
 58% 158 Louisiana Tech          52 37.6,   195 Stephen F. Austin       17 33.8
 58%  95 Missouri State          35 35.7,   134 Tennessee - Martin      30 30.1
 58%  89 Virginia Tech           27 28.8,    93 Boston College          10 23.2
 57% 180 Texas State - San Marc  41 36.4,   206 Florida International   12 31.0
 57% 146 Rhode Island            35 33.3,   196 Bryant                  21 28.4
 56% 191 South Carolina State    33 33.2,   227 Bethune - Cookman        9 28.6
 56%  74 Liberty                 21 32.0,    83 Alabama - Birmingham    14 27.8
 55%  94 Memphis                 37 29.9,   126 Navy                    13 26.0
 55%  45 Illinois                24 26.7,    59 Virginia                 3 24.0
 53%  16 Iowa State              10 24.2,    34 Iowa                     7 22.1
 51%  60 Texas Tech              33 37.4,    38 Houston                 30 36.8

 50% 156 New Hampshire           28 24.9,   162 Albany                  23 25.2
 50%  48 Oregon State            35 32.9,    63 Fresno State            32 33.2
 49% 179 Sacred Heart            14 23.1,   199 Central Connecticut     10 23.8
 49%  26 Brigham Young           26 31.2,    14 Baylor                  20 32.0
 48%  68 Oregon                  70 39.0,    51 Eastern Washington      14 40.0
 48%  21 Wake Forest             45 46.2,    25 Vanderbilt              25 47.2
 47% 204 Abilene Christian       21 28.1,   194 Prairie View            13 30.1
 45% 112 North Dakota            29 17.9,    78 Northern Iowa           27 22.4
 44% 208 Temple                  30 20.2,   212 Lafayette               14 24.8
 44% 186 Rice                    52 21.7,   189 McNeese State           10 26.6
 44% 133 Middle Tennessee State  34 28.4,   130 Colorado State          19 32.8
 44%  28 Kentucky                26 28.1,    37 Florida                 16 32.7
 43% 232 Lehigh                  21 20.7,   222 Georgetown              19 25.9
 43% 132 Ball State              30 30.2,    91 Western Michigan        29 35.2
 42% 139 Florida Atlantic        42 40.6,   110 Southeast Louisiana      9 44.2
 42%  22 Tennessee               34 35.0,    17 Pittsburgh              27 40.7
 41% 224 California Poly         28 27.6,   207 San Diego               27 34.8
 40% 123 Incarnate Word          55 32.4,   101 Nevada - Reno           41 37.4
 39% 261 Presbyterian            21 43.4,   259 Houston Baptist         13 50.6
 39% 178 Northeast Louisiana     35 27.2,   151 Nicholls State           7 35.8
 39% 155 Fordham                 52 35.0,   128 Monmouth                49 42.7
 39%  88 Texas - San Antonio     41 27.0,    67 Army                    38 36.1
 38%  72 Louisville              20 29.3,    57 Central Florida         14 38.9
 38%  49 Appalachian State       17 21.9,    19 Texas A&M               14 33.2
 37% 202 The Citadel             20 25.7,   121 East Tennessee State    17 38.7
 36% 205 Colgate                 21 18.7,   137 Maine                   18 32.7
 35% 157 South Alabama           38 24.1,    90 Central Michigan        24 38.5
 34%  58 Washington State        17 17.6,    13 Wisconsin               14 34.0
 30% 187 Southeast Missouri Sta  34 22.6,    84 Southern Illinois       31 44.1
 30% 184 Northern Arizona        10 23.9,   108 Sam Houston State        3 43.6
 30% 147 Kansas                  55 20.8,    55 West Virginia           42 44.0
 29% 153 Duke                    31 22.5,    66 Northwestern            23 39.9
 29%  79 Marshall                26 16.8,     5 Notre Dame              21 41.6
 28% 161 Georgia Southern        45 20.7,    53 Nebraska                42 41.5

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               32 0.79  42 1.18  34 1.13   8 1.17   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 116  82  76.5 1.07

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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