prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 73 Liberty 21 49.6, 227 Akron 12 12.7
92% 38 North Carolina State 41 50.5, 204 Connecticut 10 9.2
92% 1 Georgia 39 64.6, 127 Kent State 22 1.9
90% 84 Western Kentucky 73 51.4, 215 Florida International 0 22.2
89% 99 Kennesaw State 24 37.5, 217 Wofford 22 9.9
89% 54 Montana 53 46.1, 167 Portland State 16 14.3
89% 35 Louisiana State 38 41.3, 155 New Mexico 0 10.1
88% 203 Temple 28 33.2, 244 Massachusetts 0 19.6
88% 177 Davidson 56 63.3, 261 Presbyterian 24 29.2
88% 146 Jackson State 49 42.7, 251 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 9.3
88% 100 Northern Iowa 52 35.9, 188 Western Illinois 17 17.7
88% 98 Jacksonville State 52 36.0, 187 Nicholls State 21 16.2
88% 92 Memphis 44 43.6, 183 North Texas 34 21.9
88% 85 Texas - San Antonio 52 52.7, 243 Texas Southern 24 21.6
88% 79 South Carolina 56 47.4, 189 North Carolina - Charl 20 20.6
88% 69 Louisville 41 40.7, 137 South Florida 3 22.8
88% 66 Princeton 29 45.5, 218 Lehigh 17 8.1
88% 65 Houston 34 43.8, 157 Rice 27 22.8
88% 59 Central Florida 27 39.1, 159 Georgia Tech 10 16.0
88% 33 Mississippi State 45 48.6, 168 Bowling Green 14 16.5
88% 25 North Dakota State 34 38.0, 115 South Dakota 17 17.7
88% 24 Kentucky 31 47.7, 130 Northern Illinois 23 19.4
88% 7 Penn State 33 49.5, 112 Central Michigan 14 19.5
88% 6 Cincinnati 45 42.3, 87 Indiana 24 15.0
88% 4 Michigan 34 45.6, 50 Maryland 27 19.4
88% 3 Alabama 55 51.2, 75 Vanderbilt 3 15.7
88% 2 Ohio State 52 42.8, 19 Wisconsin 21 19.5
87% 36 Purdue 28 43.4, 142 Florida Atlantic 26 21.7
84% 28 Brigham Young 38 43.6, 102 Wyoming 24 23.2
83% 48 Air Force 48 36.0, 151 Nevada - Reno 20 12.6
83% 32 Washington 40 37.1, 111 Stanford 22 17.1
82% 22 Pittsburgh 45 43.4, 138 Rhode Island 24 21.4
81% 145 Southeast Missouri Sta 35 37.7, 171 Central Arkansas 27 26.2
81% 18 Mississippi 35 39.4, 72 Tulsa 27 22.6
80% 172 Albany 45 36.8, 235 Central Connecticut 26 20.6
79% 8 Utah 34 34.7, 80 Arizona State 13 19.6
78% 41 Florida State 44 33.7, 95 Boston College 14 19.9
76% 83 Holy Cross 35 33.3, 192 Colgate 10 14.7
76% 46 Auburn 17 37.6, 88 Missouri 14 24.9
75% 44 California - Los Angel 45 36.5, 133 Colorado 17 22.2
72% 200 North Carolina Central 59 32.5, 259 Houston Baptist 14 11.9
72% 175 Texas State - San Marc 34 33.4, 259 Houston Baptist 0 14.8
72% 124 Delaware 35 36.8, 193 Hampton 3 18.2
72% 96 Mercer 45 36.5, 185 Gardner - Webb 14 15.8
72% 60 California 49 31.1, 108 Arizona 31 19.2
72% 10 Tennessee 38 42.6, 45 Florida 33 29.0
71% 180 Saint Francis - Pennsy 45 28.5, 225 Norfolk State 26 19.1
71% 136 Columbia 42 37.0, 220 Georgetown 6 17.9
71% 118 South Alabama 38 41.6, 160 Louisiana Tech 14 28.5
71% 107 Richmond 51 29.8, 162 Stony Brook 7 15.4
71% 58 Nevada - Las Vegas 34 38.8, 176 Utah State 24 25.9
71% 56 Coastal Carolina 41 39.5, 140 Georgia State 24 29.1
71% 43 Iowa 27 23.2, 109 Rutgers 10 13.2
70% 206 Alcorn State 38 41.4, 252 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 21 22.3
70% 198 Bryant 31 38.3, 248 Long Island 29 27.8
70% 165 Pennsylvania 12 27.9, 210 Lafayette 0 11.9
70% 128 Furman 24 32.6, 196 Charleston Southern 19 19.9
70% 106 Austin Peay 31 30.3, 143 Eastern Kentucky 20 17.1
70% 97 Sacramento State 41 39.1, 161 Colorado State 10 22.3
70% 61 Harvard 35 53.0, 182 Brown 28 28.9
68% 144 East Tennessee State 45 30.6, 212 Robert Morris 3 21.5
67% 55 Syracuse 22 31.6, 81 Virginia 20 23.7
67% 31 Illinois 31 22.8, 103 Tennessee - Chattanoog 0 12.9
67% 11 James Madison 32 38.7, 40 Appalachian State 28 29.7
66% 150 Samford 35 47.8, 152 Western Carolina 12 42.4
65% 134 Old Dominion 29 36.1, 154 Arkansas State 26 30.9
65% 132 Tennessee - Martin 56 64.3, 237 Lindenwood 26 45.0
65% 67 South Dakota State 28 34.8, 86 Missouri State 14 30.2
65% 5 Oregon 44 33.5, 42 Washington State 41 27.2
64% 82 Southeast Louisiana 41 48.4, 89 Incarnate Word 35 42.8
64% 13 Clemson 51 37.7, 20 Wake Forest 45 33.7
63% 104 Yale 38 37.7, 184 Cornell 14 24.7
62% 93 Kansas 35 40.0, 121 Duke 27 35.6
60% 135 Georgia Southern 34 32.8, 139 Ball State 23 27.6
60% 119 Miami - Ohio 17 27.5, 170 Northwestern 14 24.2
60% 57 Montana State 38 39.7, 71 Eastern Washington 35 36.6
57% 257 Stetson 38 40.5, 245 Morehead State 26 36.7
57% 101 San Diego State 17 28.8, 94 Toledo 14 26.0
56% 256 Northwestern State 35 29.1, 254 Lamar 27 27.6
56% 233 Bethune - Cookman 36 31.6, 226 Grambling 19 29.6
55% 14 Notre Dame 45 43.9, 34 North Carolina 32 42.7
54% 74 Weber State 17 29.1, 114 California - Davis 12 26.7
53% 240 New Mexico State 45 33.1, 239 Hawaii 26 32.5
52% 27 Texas A&M 23 24.0, 16 Arkansas 21 23.7
51% 123 Southern Illinois 34 32.7, 113 North Dakota 17 32.2
50% 52 West Virginia 33 26.6, 90 Virginia Tech 10 26.6
47% 216 Valparaiso 28 28.5, 209 San Diego 21 29.9
47% 201 Prairie View 24 20.5, 219 Alabama State 15 21.5
47% 194 North Carolina A&T 41 22.8, 179 South Carolina State 27 23.4
45% 51 Texas Christian 42 35.8, 49 Southern Methodist 34 37.4
44% 29 Minnesota 34 25.4, 30 Michigan State 7 27.6
43% 247 Northern Colorado 35 24.5, 211 Idaho State 14 27.5
42% 23 Southern California 17 38.3, 26 Oregon State 14 40.5
41% 169 New Hampshire 37 24.8, 174 Towson 14 26.9
41% 15 Baylor 31 23.8, 17 Iowa State 24 25.8
40% 236 Eastern Illinois 35 22.8, 238 Murray State 21 26.0
38% 253 Marist 30 16.4, 249 Drake 25 24.1
38% 149 San Jose State 34 23.8, 110 Western Michigan 6 27.4
37% 116 Elon 35 22.4, 105 William & Mary 31 28.1
34% 158 Idaho 27 27.0, 164 Northern Arizona 10 32.0
33% 131 Buffalo 50 31.0, 122 Eastern Michigan 31 35.5
31% 222 Tarleton State 43 30.7, 190 North Alabama 28 42.6
31% 156 Ohio 59 38.0, 129 Fordham 52 47.2
30% 260 Florida A&M 38 28.1, 224 Alabama A&M 25 40.5
30% 141 Troy State 16 23.3, 70 Marshall 7 31.6
30% 64 Texas Tech 37 31.1, 21 Texas 34 37.7
28% 199 Sacred Heart 38 9.0, 62 Dartmouth 31 30.6
27% 125 Monmouth 49 28.5, 77 Villanova 42 42.3
25% 148 Navy 23 20.4, 78 East Carolina 20 35.0
24% 39 Kansas State 41 18.5, 12 Oklahoma 34 33.8
12% 207 Texas - El Paso 27 7.1, 47 Boise State 10 40.5
12% 178 Northeast Louisiana 21 17.5, 53 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 41.6
12% 163 Southern Mississippi 27 17.9, 68 Tulane 24 38.6
12% 120 Middle Tennessee State 45 16.1, 37 Miami - Florida 31 40.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
22 0.90 23 1.00 31 1.11 35 1.02 3 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 114 85 83.1 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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