prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 142 Eastern Michigan 20 49.1, 248 Massachusetts 13 20.0
92% 70 Southeast Louisiana 48 51.7, 239 Murray State 14 15.8
92% 59 South Dakota State 34 49.5, 207 Western Illinois 10 13.8
92% 4 James Madison 40 59.2, 196 Texas State - San Marc 13 4.9
92% 2 Ohio State 49 56.4, 120 Rutgers 10 9.7
91% 44 Montana 28 49.9, 243 Idaho State 20 6.9
90% 39 Brigham Young 38 43.9, 181 Utah State 26 10.6
89% 112 Yale 34 50.6, 246 Howard 26 15.5
88% 185 Sacred Heart 31 31.6, 240 Norfolk State 14 12.9
88% 164 Saint Francis - Pennsy 39 37.7, 231 Central Connecticut 13 17.7
88% 127 Tennessee - Martin 45 41.9, 241 Tennessee Tech 28 11.7
88% 121 Fordham 59 50.3, 226 Georgetown 38 26.6
88% 104 Delaware 24 34.4, 192 Towson 10 12.7
88% 94 Northern Iowa 20 35.2, 187 Indiana State 14 10.2
88% 85 Memphis 24 37.2, 188 Temple 3 16.6
88% 68 Incarnate Word 48 47.4, 203 McNeese State 20 21.2
88% 47 Syracuse 59 53.8, 254 Wagner 0 9.4
88% 40 North Carolina 41 48.8, 118 Virginia Tech 10 32.1
88% 38 Appalachian State 49 49.6, 206 The Citadel 0 12.9
88% 37 Air Force 13 38.5, 144 Navy 10 13.7
88% 26 Oregon 45 46.5, 108 Stanford 27 24.5
88% 20 North Dakota State 27 46.6, 124 Youngstown State 14 16.5
88% 11 Utah 42 39.6, 31 Oregon State 16 25.3
88% 5 Penn State 17 45.4, 165 Northwestern 7 8.1
88% 1 Georgia 26 46.8, 84 Missouri 22 11.3
87% 116 Sam Houston State 17 38.3, 200 Stephen F. Austin 16 22.3
87% 76 Marshall 28 41.8, 186 Gardner - Webb 7 19.5
87% 14 Southern California 42 42.6, 110 Arizona State 25 19.4
82% 89 Mercer 42 30.7, 208 Wofford 7 13.0
81% 75 Sacramento State 49 44.3, 211 California Poly 21 19.5
81% 67 South Carolina 50 37.6, 184 South Carolina State 10 17.9
81% 3 Alabama 49 40.4, 17 Arkansas 26 25.7
80% 148 Idaho 55 41.4, 242 Northern Colorado 35 19.2
79% 58 Montana State 41 37.1, 113 California - Davis 24 23.5
78% 49 Florida 52 46.1, 98 Eastern Washington 17 33.6
78% 36 Kansas State 37 32.0, 61 Texas Tech 28 20.5
77% 90 East Carolina 48 37.4, 156 South Florida 28 25.1
77% 54 Coastal Carolina 34 43.7, 126 Georgia Southern 30 27.9
77% 7 Cincinnati 31 42.4, 65 Tulsa 21 26.2
76% 96 Kent State 31 41.8, 157 Ohio 24 31.4
75% 139 Eastern Kentucky 35 38.1, 193 Southern Utah 28 23.3
74% 103 Arizona 43 36.6, 160 Colorado 20 24.6
74% 93 Nevada - Las Vegas 31 37.4, 161 New Mexico 20 23.3
73% 209 Dayton 27 37.6, 247 Drake 14 22.8
73% 115 Monmouth 35 38.0, 216 Lehigh 7 23.2
72% 250 Morehead State 14 57.9, 261 Presbyterian 10 40.9
72% 224 Morgan State 44 29.9, 260 Houston Baptist 10 11.9
72% 179 Davidson 31 48.1, 259 Butler 0 22.8
72% 95 Jacksonville State 35 34.1, 129 Kennesaw State 28 21.5
72% 13 Clemson 30 34.2, 41 North Carolina State 20 20.5
71% 219 Lafayette 24 18.4, 249 Bucknell 14 11.8
71% 163 Bowling Green 31 35.3, 214 Akron 28 26.7
71% 138 Rhode Island 38 45.7, 178 Brown 10 33.4
71% 106 Villanova 45 35.2, 167 Maine 20 26.5
71% 25 Texas 38 37.2, 45 West Virginia 20 26.8
70% 222 Southern 59 39.0, 251 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 3 26.3
70% 151 Arkansas State 45 38.3, 172 Northeast Louisiana 28 30.8
70% 101 William & Mary 27 30.2, 182 Stony Brook 10 18.2
70% 21 Louisiana State 21 27.1, 57 Auburn 17 20.8
70% 15 Mississippi 22 31.0, 32 Kentucky 19 23.7
70% 6 Michigan 27 27.2, 50 Iowa 14 17.2
69% 180 North Carolina A&T 24 31.3, 194 Bryant 13 26.1
68% 99 Boise State 35 25.6, 117 San Diego State 13 17.1
67% 191 Prairie View 34 30.6, 232 Grambling 14 23.0
67% 91 Liberty 38 27.7, 141 Old Dominion 24 22.1
66% 153 Western Carolina 38 43.3, 176 Virginia Military 17 37.9
66% 105 Toledo 38 37.4, 100 Central Michigan 17 31.0
66% 46 Washington State 28 26.7, 56 California 9 20.6
65% 253 Florida A&M 34 32.8, 252 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 25.0
63% 173 Texas - El Paso 41 32.4, 190 North Carolina - Charl 35 28.7
63% 125 Southeast Missouri Sta 49 62.9, 230 Lindenwood 28 47.3
62% 225 Saint Thomas - Minneso 38 34.3, 256 Marist 24 27.0
61% 81 Princeton 24 31.6, 130 Columbia 6 26.4
59% 169 Portland State 35 30.0, 175 Northern Arizona 27 28.6
59% 97 Tennessee - Chattanoog 24 24.4, 128 East Tennessee State 16 21.8
58% 227 Stonehill 24 55.4, 220 Duquesne 20 47.4
57% 238 Alabama State 16 25.8, 223 Texas Southern 13 24.2
57% 236 Delaware State 14 26.4, 233 Robert Morris 9 24.7
55% 174 Campbell 48 31.5, 166 North Carolina Central 18 30.2
55% 114 Buffalo 24 28.4, 123 Miami - Ohio 20 27.5
53% 12 Oklahoma State 36 31.5, 19 Baylor 25 30.7
52% 43 Maryland 27 30.4, 34 Michigan State 13 29.9
51% 152 Ball State 44 34.1, 122 Northern Illinois 38 33.9
50% 42 California - Los Angel 40 33.4, 30 Washington 32 33.4
47% 143 North Dakota 48 29.3, 107 Missouri State 31 30.1
46% 102 Elon 30 26.0, 83 Richmond 27 27.1
46% 33 Mississippi State 42 20.0, 28 Texas A&M 24 21.0
45% 150 Western Michigan 44 27.4, 158 New Hampshire 7 28.6
42% 189 Cornell 34 19.5, 195 Colgate 31 22.0
40% 77 Tulane 27 29.9, 80 Houston 24 32.5
38% 260 Houston Baptist 37 17.1, 258 Lamar 34 22.3
38% 69 Holy Cross 30 25.3, 63 Harvard 21 32.3
37% 244 Alabama A&M 35 32.7, 234 Bethune - Cookman 27 34.9
37% 135 Southern Illinois 19 25.2, 146 Illinois State 14 28.7
37% 86 South Alabama 20 23.5, 78 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 29.3
36% 109 Duke 38 27.2, 79 Virginia 17 31.1
36% 82 Texas - San Antonio 45 32.4, 72 Middle Tennessee State 30 36.4
33% 145 Nebraska 35 31.0, 62 Indiana 21 37.5
33% 22 Illinois 34 13.6, 23 Wisconsin 10 22.1
32% 235 Florida International 21 27.9, 215 New Mexico State 7 33.6
31% 132 Boston College 34 22.6, 51 Louisville 33 29.7
30% 27 Wake Forest 31 37.6, 18 Florida State 21 44.6
29% 168 Pennsylvania 23 11.6, 74 Dartmouth 17 33.7
29% 137 San Jose State 33 21.4, 87 Wyoming 16 28.7
29% 53 Texas Christian 55 30.2, 9 Oklahoma 24 38.5
28% 183 North Texas 45 28.4, 136 Florida Atlantic 28 38.4
28% 171 Central Arkansas 49 16.8, 111 Austin Peay 20 30.3
28% 149 Rice 28 23.6, 92 Alabama - Birmingham 24 32.2
28% 140 Samford 34 25.6, 133 Furman 27 33.3
23% 257 Northwestern State 36 24.9, 198 Nicholls State 33 39.6
23% 66 Kansas 14 26.5, 29 Iowa State 11 39.8
21% 48 Purdue 20 21.0, 10 Minnesota 10 38.0
15% 154 Georgia State 31 21.5, 64 Army 14 39.4
12% 210 Connecticut 19 21.0, 71 Fresno State 14 45.2
12% 131 Troy State 34 21.0, 35 Western Kentucky 27 43.7
10% 162 Georgia Tech 26 13.0, 24 Pittsburgh 21 44.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
17 1.07 25 0.79 37 1.00 30 1.04 7 0.93 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 116 83 85.3 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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