prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 2 Ohio State 54 44.0, 45 Iowa 10 11.1
90% 46 Holy Cross 24 35.3, 219 Lafayette 21 7.8
90% 30 Oregon State 42 42.7, 157 Colorado 9 15.3
88% 209 Prairie View 54 33.8, 258 Lamar 21 16.9
88% 180 North Carolina A&T 38 33.0, 256 Robert Morris 14 12.3
88% 179 Southern 51 44.3, 261 Houston Baptist 7 10.5
88% 135 Youngstown State 28 44.5, 230 Western Illinois 27 24.9
88% 134 Furman 41 36.9, 220 Virginia Military 3 19.9
88% 127 Southeast Missouri Sta 51 47.9, 253 Northwestern State 16 20.4
88% 109 Kent State 33 43.7, 206 Akron 27 20.6
88% 101 Delaware 38 41.1, 226 Morgan State 7 10.8
88% 80 California - Davis 58 48.4, 240 Northern Colorado 10 16.6
88% 76 Tulsa 27 37.6, 198 Temple 16 17.1
88% 70 Texas - San Antonio 31 48.8, 173 North Texas 27 27.6
88% 55 Appalachian State 42 42.4, 129 Georgia State 17 24.0
88% 42 Maryland 31 36.3, 154 Northwestern 24 15.3
88% 26 Notre Dame 44 42.1, 126 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 14.0
88% 14 Wake Forest 43 47.0, 122 Boston College 15 22.4
88% 4 Tennessee 65 52.2, 124 Tennessee - Martin 24 22.0
88% 3 Alabama 30 43.9, 18 Mississippi State 6 20.9
87% 96 Richmond 41 36.6, 202 Hampton 10 18.0
85% 225 Saint Thomas - Minneso 46 47.7, 260 Presbyterian 17 20.9
83% 185 Colgate 34 35.3, 239 Georgetown 24 20.0
83% 169 Kennesaw State 33 43.7, 233 Tennessee Tech 30 21.3
81% 85 William & Mary 44 36.0, 195 Towson 24 19.5
81% 19 Cincinnati 29 42.2, 67 Southern Methodist 27 27.8
78% 89 Louisiana - Lafayette 38 34.8, 130 Arkansas State 18 22.9
77% 131 Army 48 36.2, 158 Northeast Louisiana 24 22.8
77% 110 Villanova 31 44.7, 167 Albany 29 28.5
77% 11 Clemson 27 37.5, 24 Syracuse 21 20.6
75% 207 Valparaiso 40 39.0, 246 Morehead State 35 28.3
74% 120 Idaho 56 43.1, 175 Portland State 21 28.3
73% 102 Jackson State 22 37.9, 133 Campbell 14 25.3
73% 29 Wisconsin 35 36.6, 39 Purdue 24 25.9
72% 236 Dayton 23 35.8, 254 Stetson 20 22.8
72% 192 Davidson 48 29.7, 252 Drake 14 18.2
72% 162 Eastern Kentucky 56 41.4, 201 North Alabama 53 28.8
72% 117 Northern Iowa 41 32.1, 137 Missouri State 20 23.4
72% 63 Tulane 38 36.4, 100 Memphis 28 27.7
72% 61 Missouri 17 37.0, 92 Vanderbilt 14 28.0
72% 28 Baylor 35 42.1, 41 Kansas 23 31.1
71% 237 Butler 31 28.8, 255 Marist 10 19.9
71% 182 Colorado State 17 36.2, 199 Hawaii 13 26.7
71% 176 Northern Arizona 24 30.4, 222 Idaho State 10 23.3
71% 160 Illinois State 27 28.2, 189 Indiana State 21 19.4
71% 62 South Dakota State 49 30.8, 111 North Dakota 35 22.4
71% 8 Texas Christian 38 34.5, 33 Kansas State 28 23.3
70% 251 Bethune - Cookman 45 29.5, 259 Mississippi Valley Sta 35 24.1
70% 197 Tennessee State 37 29.5, 229 Eastern Illinois 17 19.2
70% 119 Fresno State 41 26.1, 183 New Mexico 9 18.1
70% 97 Wyoming 28 31.4, 138 Utah State 14 24.9
69% 23 Oregon 45 42.0, 21 California - Los Angel 30 36.3
68% 164 Gardner - Webb 28 34.4, 211 Charleston Southern 14 28.3
68% 60 Western Kentucky 20 33.5, 78 Alabama - Birmingham 17 26.7
68% 53 Sacramento State 31 35.2, 66 Montana 24 26.9
68% 15 Penn State 45 27.3, 16 Minnesota 17 20.4
67% 123 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 65.0, 227 Stonehill 13 43.4
66% 216 Howard 35 33.0, 235 Delaware State 17 28.4
66% 38 Washington 28 30.8, 82 California 21 25.0
65% 149 San Diego State 23 21.8, 168 Nevada - Reno 7 17.2
64% 74 Stanford 15 30.0, 88 Arizona State 14 25.5
63% 108 Pennsylvania 20 31.7, 121 Yale 13 27.6
63% 10 Oklahoma State 41 39.0, 6 Texas 34 35.0
62% 141 Rice 42 36.7, 174 Louisiana Tech 41 33.4
61% 47 Louisville 24 30.3, 44 Pittsburgh 10 28.0
60% 203 Lindenwood 33 47.1, 245 Murray State 18 40.6
60% 95 Georgia Southern 28 33.0, 125 Old Dominion 23 30.5
55% 247 Wagner 37 32.8, 249 Long Island 26 31.0
54% 99 Virginia 16 24.5, 132 Georgia Tech 9 23.7
52% 139 Ohio 24 39.7, 118 Northern Illinois 17 39.3
51% 172 Cornell 24 34.2, 190 Brown 21 34.0
50% 186 Eastern Washington 17 44.2, 204 California Poly 10 44.1
50% 57 Texas Tech 48 35.4, 40 West Virginia 10 35.4
49% 224 Duquesne 30 16.7, 243 Central Connecticut 6 17.0
49% 68 Montana State 43 27.6, 51 Weber State 38 28.0
48% 142 Southern Mississippi 20 24.7, 152 Texas State - San Marc 14 25.1
45% 105 Buffalo 34 30.3, 73 Toledo 27 31.7
43% 238 Nicholls State 40 26.8, 208 McNeese State 35 29.2
43% 178 Stephen F. Austin 41 26.2, 184 Southern Utah 38 28.1
42% 48 South Carolina 30 20.1, 34 Texas A&M 24 22.1
41% 159 New Hampshire 40 21.9, 107 Elon 22 23.9
41% 75 Princeton 37 27.6, 84 Harvard 10 29.4
40% 212 Stony Brook 28 20.2, 181 Maine 27 22.8
40% 166 Dartmouth 27 20.3, 151 Columbia 24 23.5
40% 140 Samford 55 31.2, 145 East Tennessee State 45 33.0
39% 200 South Carolina State 26 27.1, 156 North Carolina Central 24 31.3
39% 177 Texas - El Paso 24 23.1, 147 Florida Atlantic 21 26.4
38% 163 South Dakota 27 24.4, 112 Southern Illinois 24 27.5
38% 136 Rutgers 24 24.3, 87 Indiana 17 27.0
38% 93 Houston 38 26.1, 83 Navy 20 29.9
38% 22 Louisiana State 45 29.6, 9 Mississippi 20 32.4
35% 65 Southeast Louisiana 31 37.9, 86 Jacksonville State 14 43.0
34% 161 Eastern Michigan 20 27.0, 153 Ball State 16 31.8
34% 106 Tennessee - Chattanoog 41 24.3, 49 Mercer 21 29.4
32% 115 Rhode Island 48 29.6, 113 Monmouth 46 35.6
31% 91 Troy State 10 21.8, 64 South Alabama 6 28.0
30% 90 Liberty 41 29.6, 54 Brigham Young 14 36.1
29% 77 Duke 45 22.0, 69 Miami - Florida 21 31.6
28% 187 Western Michigan 16 18.6, 143 Miami - Ohio 10 29.6
28% 98 Boise State 19 19.2, 50 Air Force 14 29.5
28% 72 East Carolina 34 27.1, 27 Central Florida 13 36.0
26% 234 Florida International 34 28.2, 188 North Carolina - Charl 15 39.8
25% 242 Bucknell 19 11.1, 210 Lehigh 17 25.0
21% 223 Texas Southern 34 21.6, 196 Alcorn State 27 34.3
20% 171 Bowling Green 34 27.7, 144 Central Michigan 18 39.0
18% 217 The Citadel 34 25.7, 165 Western Carolina 21 36.3
12% 103 Marshall 26 15.6, 17 James Madison 12 40.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
18 0.60 27 0.86 34 1.01 27 1.07 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 72 76.5 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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