prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 69 South Dakota State 49 43.1, 187 Indiana State 7 13.4
91% 54 Appalachian State 42 54.2, 257 Robert Morris 3 5.8
90% 79 California - Davis 59 47.9, 213 California Poly 17 17.5
90% 70 Princeton 35 39.6, 175 Cornell 9 13.0
90% 68 Mercer 55 48.6, 235 Virginia Military 14 16.3
89% 89 Boise State 49 35.8, 188 Colorado State 10 9.1
88% 255 Marist 37 36.9, 260 Presbyterian 7 17.4
88% 214 Florida A&M 27 41.8, 256 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 6 17.0
88% 196 Prairie View 58 39.3, 248 Bethune - Cookman 48 22.4
88% 159 Missouri State 64 40.9, 230 Western Illinois 14 21.4
88% 129 Villanova 24 41.8, 211 Hampton 10 18.6
88% 108 Navy 27 29.8, 197 Temple 20 9.4
88% 101 Wyoming 27 40.1, 200 Hawaii 20 23.4
88% 60 Southeast Louisiana 28 50.0, 221 McNeese State 27 22.1
88% 51 North Dakota State 24 37.7, 160 Illinois State 7 11.6
88% 49 Iowa 33 27.2, 135 Northwestern 13 7.8
88% 33 Florida State 41 36.3, 138 Georgia Tech 16 11.6
88% 31 North Carolina State 22 31.5, 134 Virginia Tech 21 12.2
88% 21 Minnesota 31 32.6, 115 Rutgers 0 11.0
88% 9 Southern California 45 50.3, 102 Arizona 37 30.6
88% 5 Michigan 29 43.6, 50 Michigan State 7 17.5
88% 3 Tennessee 44 45.6, 37 Kentucky 6 23.9
88% 2 Georgia 42 42.7, 45 Florida 20 12.7
87% 32 Sacramento State 31 48.3, 107 Idaho 28 27.9
85% 87 Richmond 31 35.2, 184 Maine 21 19.9
84% 113 Samford 38 35.4, 205 The Citadel 3 21.8
83% 1 Ohio State 44 42.9, 13 Penn State 31 29.0
81% 227 Butler 56 36.0, 245 Morehead State 20 22.9
80% 83 Houston 42 41.4, 145 South Florida 27 28.3
79% 96 Jackson State 35 36.8, 162 Southern 0 19.5
78% 125 North Dakota 34 39.7, 192 Abilene Christian 31 20.4
78% 80 San Jose State 35 29.9, 179 Nevada - Reno 28 12.9
78% 15 Illinois 26 35.4, 111 Nebraska 9 17.7
76% 182 Kennesaw State 30 37.7, 224 Charleston Southern 20 24.0
76% 170 Albany 59 34.8, 225 Stony Brook 14 21.1
75% 158 Central Arkansas 64 42.4, 194 North Alabama 29 29.0
75% 52 Holy Cross 53 51.2, 88 Fordham 52 37.9
74% 153 Miami - Ohio 27 29.8, 193 Akron 9 17.5
72% 183 Colgate 13 27.1, 238 Bucknell 7 16.6
72% 151 North Carolina Central 28 37.8, 236 Delaware State 21 24.5
72% 34 California - Los Angel 38 39.4, 76 Stanford 13 28.6
72% 20 North Carolina 42 45.7, 53 Pittsburgh 24 37.1
71% 165 Gardner - Webb 48 35.6, 217 Bryant 40 26.0
71% 142 Youngstown State 45 32.5, 166 South Dakota 24 24.8
71% 104 Arizona State 42 30.0, 163 Colorado 34 20.0
71% 84 Toledo 27 37.1, 154 Eastern Michigan 24 28.5
71% 17 Oregon 42 34.1, 95 California 24 23.5
71% 12 Utah 21 29.9, 40 Washington State 17 23.0
70% 215 Howard 49 34.3, 249 Norfolk State 21 29.4
70% 150 Sam Houston State 40 37.4, 195 Tarleton State 21 25.4
70% 118 Middle Tennessee State 24 30.8, 167 Texas - El Paso 13 24.5
70% 75 South Alabama 31 34.8, 140 Arkansas State 3 27.9
70% 48 Weber State 24 30.2, 72 Montana 21 21.6
70% 6 Texas Christian 41 42.8, 63 West Virginia 31 32.2
68% 81 William & Mary 31 34.4, 94 Rhode Island 30 28.6
67% 212 New Mexico State 23 30.3, 242 Massachusetts 13 25.5
66% 222 Alabama State 24 25.9, 243 Alabama A&M 17 20.9
66% 106 Fresno State 32 23.5, 139 San Diego State 28 18.7
66% 23 Arkansas 41 34.4, 62 Auburn 27 29.4
63% 251 Central Connecticut 34 31.3, 241 Wagner 7 27.3
62% 16 Mississippi 31 27.8, 46 Texas A&M 28 24.7
61% 130 Georgia State 31 29.2, 117 Old Dominion 17 26.2
60% 141 Saint Francis - Pennsy 44 20.1, 185 Sacred Heart 14 16.0
56% 219 Saint Thomas - Minneso 49 30.7, 218 San Diego 42 28.2
54% 112 Jacksonville State 40 27.6, 149 Austin Peay 16 26.5
54% 93 Miami - Florida 14 24.7, 103 Virginia 12 23.7
53% 119 Harvard 28 26.4, 161 Dartmouth 13 25.5
53% 73 Southern Methodist 45 38.5, 92 Tulsa 34 37.9
52% 27 Notre Dame 41 24.5, 19 Syracuse 24 23.9
50% 240 Dayton 31 30.6, 208 Valparaiso 24 30.5
47% 110 Northern Iowa 37 26.8, 136 Southern Illinois 36 27.5
44% 41 Central Florida 25 29.8, 25 Cincinnati 21 31.3
44% 26 Baylor 45 31.2, 30 Texas Tech 17 32.5
43% 124 Elon 27 21.6, 90 Delaware 7 23.0
41% 137 Yale 41 24.2, 152 Columbia 16 26.5
41% 22 Oklahoma 27 23.1, 39 Iowa State 13 25.3
39% 229 Tennessee Tech 20 28.2, 234 Eastern Illinois 17 31.2
39% 176 North Carolina A&T 45 27.8, 133 Campbell 38 30.5
39% 121 Furman 24 22.4, 78 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 25.5
36% 254 Drake 24 21.9, 250 Stetson 17 26.7
34% 231 Morgan State 41 22.9, 201 South Carolina State 14 28.3
34% 57 East Carolina 27 31.4, 71 Brigham Young 24 36.7
33% 28 Kansas State 48 29.4, 8 Oklahoma State 0 35.0
31% 42 Louisville 48 31.0, 10 Wake Forest 21 36.5
30% 244 Grambling 35 23.6, 199 Alcorn State 6 30.8
30% 223 Florida International 42 29.4, 174 Louisiana Tech 34 36.2
30% 209 Wofford 48 21.1, 144 East Tennessee State 41 29.4
30% 146 Florida Atlantic 24 20.6, 85 Alabama - Birmingham 17 28.7
30% 126 Southern Mississippi 39 18.6, 77 Louisiana - Lafayette 24 25.3
29% 253 Long Island 50 10.6, 206 Duquesne 48 31.8
29% 191 Portland State 38 34.6, 186 Eastern Washington 35 43.6
29% 86 Coastal Carolina 24 24.3, 66 Marshall 13 32.2
28% 168 Connecticut 13 19.8, 114 Boston College 3 30.2
28% 164 Eastern Kentucky 28 28.9, 120 Southeast Missouri Sta 23 40.3
28% 58 Missouri 23 24.8, 43 South Carolina 10 33.1
26% 247 Murray State 19 17.7, 189 Tennessee State 3 31.4
25% 239 Georgetown 30 15.7, 203 Lafayette 20 29.7
24% 258 Lamar 24 24.6, 237 Nicholls State 17 38.4
16% 198 Brown 34 24.5, 99 Pennsylvania 31 39.3
12% 207 Towson 52 21.8, 122 Monmouth 48 44.7
12% 202 North Carolina - Charl 56 28.1, 123 Rice 23 45.8
12% 171 North Texas 40 25.0, 61 Western Kentucky 13 48.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.98 19 0.81 38 0.90 28 0.98 4 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 102 70 75.2 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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