2022 Week 11 (8-12 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 93%  74 Southeast Louisiana     23 61.6,   249 Northwestern State       7 16.4
 93%  53 Weber State             45 46.9,   230 Idaho State              7  6.7
 93%   2 Ohio State              56 61.0,    98 Indiana                 14 14.9
 92%   8 Southern California     55 56.7,   177 Colorado                17 14.8
 92%   4 Michigan                34 54.1,   112 Nebraska                 3 13.5
 91% 184 Southern                27 40.0,   257 Mississippi Valley Sta   7 11.2
 91%  36 Sacramento State        45 51.4,   193 Portland State          17 21.9
 90%  76 Jackson State           27 49.6,   247 Alabama A&M             13 12.2
 90%  59 Montana                 63 50.0,   204 Eastern Washington       7 15.7
 90%   3 Tennessee               66 46.9,    47 Missouri                24 17.9
 89% 206 The Citadel             66 41.0,   260 Houston Baptist          0  9.4
 89% 153 Arkansas State          35 41.3,   241 Massachusetts           33 17.1
 89%  69 Air Force               35 34.2,   199 New Mexico               3  4.0
 89%  51 Holy Cross              36 50.0,   189 Bryant                  29 17.8
 89%  10 Utah                    42 40.5,    96 Stanford                 7 15.2
 88% 226 Dayton                  49 42.7,   253 Morehead State          27 22.6
 88% 212 McNeese State           21 42.3,   260 Houston Baptist         10 15.5
 88% 191 Prairie View            55 44.1,   259 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   24 18.9
 88% 144 North Carolina Central  48 48.2,   255 Norfolk State           14 22.5
 88% 135 Middle Tennessee State  24 44.9,   192 North Carolina - Charl  14 27.5
 88% 134 Florida Atlantic        52 34.8,   220 Florida International    7 17.2
 88% 131 Utah State              41 37.0,   209 Hawaii                  34 21.8
 88% 109 Southeast Missouri Sta  31 39.8,   242 Eastern Illinois         7 14.7
 88%  86 Western Kentucky        45 41.6,   160 Rice                    10 22.7
 88%  84 Houston                 43 42.0,   173 Temple                  36 22.1
 88%  81 Boise State             41 33.3,   172 Nevada - Reno            3 18.2
 88%  75 Texas - San Antonio     51 50.2,   165 Louisiana Tech           7 31.0
 88%  67 Montana State           72 53.3,   227 California Poly         28 22.8
 88%  66 Fordham                 45 47.7,   211 Lafayette               10 23.9
 88%  64 South Dakota State      31 34.6,   174 Illinois State           7 12.3
 88%  54 South Alabama           38 35.6,   151 Texas State - San Marc  21 15.7
 88%  42 Michigan State          27 32.7,   127 Rutgers                 21 13.6
 88%  31 Minnesota               31 31.7,   110 Northwestern             3 10.6
 88%  30 Oregon State            38 34.5,    79 California              10 18.6
 88%  21 Washington State        28 36.8,   116 Arizona State           18 16.1
 88%  15 Notre Dame              35 35.4,   111 Navy                    32 12.4
 88%   7 Penn State              30 38.2,    46 Maryland                 0 20.7
 88%   1 Georgia                 45 38.3,    19 Mississippi State       19 18.6
 85% 219 Alcorn State            17 42.7,   250 Bethune - Cookman       14 26.5
 85%  77 Coastal Carolina        26 36.8,   130 Southern Mississippi    23 22.1
 84% 167 North Carolina A&T      20 39.9,   221 Charleston Southern     10 24.2
 81% 187 Wofford                 34 36.1,   239 Virginia Military       16 18.9
 81% 108 Elon                    38 29.1,   207 Hampton                 24 14.2
 81%  61 Southern Methodist      41 50.7,   163 South Florida           23 34.8
 81%  49 Duke                    24 34.7,   125 Virginia Tech            7 20.7
 79%  52 North Dakota State      21 37.2,   136 Southern Illinois       18 24.0
 78% 103 Wyoming                 14 31.6,   190 Colorado State          13 20.1
 77% 185 Saint Thomas - Minneso  23 45.7,   246 Stetson                  0 26.0
 77%  87 Toledo                  28 35.8,   142 Ball State              21 22.4
 72% 244 Murray State            27 26.4,   258 Robert Morris            9 14.9
 72% 196 Sacred Heart            38 27.4,   256 Wagner                  28 12.1
 72% 169 Columbia                31 34.7,   200 Brown                   24 25.3
 72% 155 Eastern Michigan        34 35.2,   201 Akron                   28 25.1
 72% 152 Albany                  23 39.3,   188 Maine                   21 29.0
 72% 105 Jacksonville State      42 39.2,   122 Eastern Kentucky        17 27.3
 72% 100 Alabama - Birmingham    41 33.8,   119 North Texas             21 24.8
 72%  41 Cincinnati              27 35.2,    57 East Carolina           25 23.5
 71% 213 New Mexico State        51 35.6,   254 Lamar                   14 22.3
 71% 149 Tennessee - Martin      20 32.9,   228 Tennessee State          3 22.0
 71% 123 Saint Francis - Pennsy  51 29.9,   205 Duquesne                14 13.0
 71%  94 William & Mary          45 35.6,   164 Villanova               12 23.3
 71%  58 James Madison           37 31.9,   126 Old Dominion             3 19.4
 71%   5 Alabama                 30 40.1,    18 Mississippi             24 31.5
 70% 180 Towson                  21 27.1,   235 Stony Brook             17 20.3
 70% 118 North Dakota            28 33.1,   171 South Dakota            19 24.3
 70%  89 Fresno State            37 35.5,   137 Nevada - Las Vegas      30 29.4
 70%  32 Florida                 38 37.7,    45 South Carolina           6 29.3
 68%  73 Troy State              10 25.4,   104 Army                     9 18.8
 68%  55 Pittsburgh              37 26.5,   102 Virginia                 7 20.7
 68%  12 Louisiana State         13 35.2,    43 Arkansas                10 29.6
 67%  14 Clemson                 31 31.5,    13 Louisville              16 25.3
 65% 203 Texas Southern          41 30.7,   234 Grambling                7 26.1
 65% 124 Kent State              40 33.4,   157 Bowling Green            6 29.9
 65%  27 Oklahoma State          20 28.8,    35 Iowa State              14 24.7
 65%  22 Florida State           38 29.6,    48 Syracuse                 3 25.9
 64% 236 Valparaiso              45 28.9,   251 Marist                  24 25.0
 64% 214 Indiana State           21 33.3,   240 Western Illinois         0 29.1
 64% 208 Howard                  28 30.2,   222 South Carolina State    14 26.7
 64%  63 California - Davis      44 37.3,    83 Idaho                   26 32.8
 63%  95 Memphis                 26 40.7,   115 Tulsa                   10 36.6
 63%  34 Central Florida         38 29.0,    50 Tulane                  31 25.0
 60% 159 Central Arkansas        34 35.0,   178 Stephen F. Austin        7 32.3
 59% 132 New Hampshire           31 28.6,   106 Rhode Island            28 26.9
 58%  44 Texas Tech              43 38.1,    25 Kansas                  28 36.3
 56% 195 Florida A&M             21 20.8,   217 Alabama State           14 19.3
 54% 107 Louisiana - Lafayette   36 32.5,    91 Georgia Southern        17 31.5
 54%  80 Marshall                28 25.6,    68 Appalachian State       21 24.6
 52% 218 Lehigh                  36 22.6,   194 Colgate                 33 22.1
 52% 143 Northern Illinois       24 28.4,   175 Western Michigan        21 27.9
 52%  37 Iowa                    24 19.7,    24 Wisconsin               10 19.2
 51% 216 Morgan State            37 26.3,   231 Delaware State           7 26.2

 49% 121 Miami - Florida         35 22.8,   138 Georgia Tech            14 23.1
 46% 154 Austin Peay             31 32.1,   158 Kennesaw State          14 33.2
 46% 113 Ohio                    37 26.5,   141 Miami - Ohio            21 27.2
 42%  71 Auburn                  13 24.3,    56 Texas A&M               10 26.3
 42%  11 Kansas State            31 25.6,    16 Baylor                   3 27.5
 41% 156 Missouri State          25 33.1,   128 Youngstown State        22 34.8
 41%  65 West Virginia           23 33.9,    29 Oklahoma                20 36.0
 40%  90 Richmond                21 23.9,    88 Delaware                13 26.4
 39% 133 Harvard                 37 25.7,   114 Pennsylvania            14 28.9
 39%  92 Yale                    24 26.8,    85 Princeton               20 29.2
 37% 223 Tennessee Tech          35 36.3,   210 North Alabama           27 40.5
 35% 245 Long Island             34 45.6,   197 Stonehill               28 61.1
 35% 145 San Diego State         43 15.7,    72 San Jose State          27 20.9
 34%  97 Samford                 35 28.9,    93 Tennessee - Chattanoog  24 34.0
 34%   6 Texas Christian         17 33.3,     9 Texas                   10 38.1
 33% 238 Bucknell                24 22.4,   224 Georgetown              21 28.0
 32% 182 Cornell                 17 19.6,   179 Dartmouth               13 25.5
 32% 147 Central Michigan        31 26.9,   117 Buffalo                 27 31.4
 32%  23 North Carolina          36 42.6,    20 Wake Forest             34 46.5
 30% 225 San Diego               31 27.9,   176 Davidson                14 36.3
 29% 252 Drake                   27 18.1,   198 Butler                  24 27.5
 29% 161 Gardner - Webb          42 30.6,   146 Campbell                35 38.2
 29%  60 Purdue                  31 19.9,    28 Illinois                24 29.7
 29%  33 Washington              37 30.8,    17 Oregon                  34 42.0
 28% 183 Western Carolina        20 35.3,   150 East Tennessee State    17 46.8
 28% 120 Furman                  23 20.9,    70 Mercer                  13 33.6
 21% 181 Abilene Christian       45 14.8,   139 Sam Houston State       28 30.6
 17% 243 Northern Colorado       21 22.0,   170 Northern Arizona        20 38.3
 13% 162 Connecticut             36 17.9,    62 Liberty                 33 34.2
 12% 166 Northeast Louisiana     31 24.0,    99 Georgia State           28 41.6
 12% 140 Boston College          21 10.4,    40 North Carolina State    20 32.9
 12% 101 Vanderbilt              24 16.1,    39 Kentucky                21 33.5
 12%  82 Arizona                 34 34.3,    26 California - Los Angel  28 52.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               17 1.06  27 0.85  29 1.00  43 0.99   8 1.09   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 124  91  92.8 0.98

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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