2022 Week 12 (15-19 Nov) Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 93%  62 Texas A&M               20 46.7,   235 Massachusetts            3  2.4
 92%  53 Missouri                45 45.1,   213 New Mexico State        14  8.9
 92%  48 Incarnate Word          66 61.4,   248 Northwestern State       7 22.2
 90%  99 Southeast Louisiana     40 49.2,   241 Nicholls State          17 19.7
 89%  12 Louisiana State         41 39.6,    93 Alabama - Birmingham    10 11.1
 89%   7 Penn State              55 39.1,   123 Rutgers                 10 11.4
 89%   3 Ohio State              43 49.0,    58 Maryland                30 21.3
 88% 252 Stetson                 42 42.9,   261 Presbyterian            21 19.8
 88% 221 McNeese State           24 40.8,   255 Lamar                   20 17.5
 88% 216 Tarleton State          49 53.6,   262 Houston Baptist          7 18.6
 88% 191 Florida A&M             41 41.2,   251 Bethune - Cookman       20 22.7
 88% 183 Bryant                  35 39.3,   260 Robert Morris            6 17.1
 88% 167 Illinois State          20 36.9,   250 Western Illinois        13  9.7
 88% 162 Texas - El Paso         40 33.1,   231 Florida International    6 15.1
 88% 147 Tennessee - Martin      34 40.7,   244 Eastern Illinois        31 15.5
 88% 137 Monmouth                24 42.3,   234 Stony Brook             21 19.9
 88% 102 Southeast Missouri Sta  52 42.9,   245 Murray State            22  8.1
 88%  88 Idaho                   38 44.2,   226 Idaho State              7 19.6
 88%  87 Jackson State           24 36.4,   230 Alcorn State            13 12.7
 88%  83 Troy State              34 35.4,   157 Northeast Louisiana     16 15.2
 88%  72 Appalachian State       27 36.4,   146 Old Dominion            14 18.3
 88%  68 Texas - San Antonio     41 42.6,   168 Rice                     7 26.6
 88%  66 Holy Cross              47 52.8,   225 Georgetown              10 20.5
 88%  64 Air Force               24 35.3,   188 Colorado State          12  7.0
 88%  60 Fordham                 52 56.0,   199 Colgate                 38 30.6
 88%  50 Weber State             33 38.3,   181 Northern Arizona        31 14.3
 88%  49 James Madison           42 39.5,   112 Georgia State           40 19.9
 88%  43 Cincinnati              23 38.2,   161 Temple                   3 14.6
 88%  27 Washington              54 47.6,   166 Colorado                 7 17.0
 88%  26 Mississippi State       56 47.2,   164 East Tennessee State     7 21.4
 88%  22 Wake Forest             45 40.0,    76 Syracuse                35 25.8
 88%  18 Notre Dame              44 38.6,   125 Boston College           0 11.6
 88%  14 Clemson                 40 40.9,   110 Miami - Florida         10 15.9
 88%  13 Florida State           49 39.4,    97 Louisiana - Lafayette   17 12.2
 88%   5 Alabama                 34 53.4,   150 Austin Peay              0 13.7
 88%   4 Michigan                19 35.3,    36 Illinois                17 12.1
 88%   1 Georgia                 16 37.4,    51 Kentucky                 6  9.2
 87% 101 Furman                  63 34.8,   187 Wofford                 28 14.6
 86% 154 Campbell                34 37.6,   242 Delaware State           7 22.0
 86%  95 Memphis                 59 54.0,   222 North Alabama            0 29.5
 86%  45 Purdue                  17 36.6,   121 Northwestern             9 20.0
 83% 170 Dartmouth               30 35.3,   206 Brown                    7 19.7
 82% 214 San Diego               14 40.9,   256 Morehead State           9 25.1
 82%  61 North Dakota State      42 42.0,   116 North Dakota            21 22.2
 81% 127 San Diego State         34 24.8,   202 New Mexico              10 10.3
 81%  77 Fresno State            41 36.2,   184 Nevada - Reno           14 21.5
 79%  21 Oregon State            31 37.4,   109 Arizona State            7 23.9
 77% 212 Eastern Washington      45 40.8,   238 Northern Colorado       21 27.1
 75% 182 The Citadel             26 32.6,   243 Virginia Military       22 19.0
 75%  24 Washington State        31 36.7,    67 Arizona                 20 26.1
 74% 215 Duquesne                33 32.6,   254 Wagner                   0 12.2
 74% 136 North Carolina Central  22 39.8,   218 Tennessee Tech          20 26.0
 73%  15 Louisville              25 28.2,    44 North Carolina State    10 16.1
 72% 126 Tulsa                   48 41.2,   169 South Florida           42 28.7
 72% 104 Army                    34 28.9,   148 Connecticut             17 17.3
 72%  46 South Alabama           27 30.3,   133 Southern Mississippi    20 20.8
 72%  30 Wisconsin               15 34.2,   113 Nebraska                14 21.8
 72%  11 Texas                   55 38.4,    34 Kansas                  14 27.9
 72%   8 Kansas State            48 33.5,    59 West Virginia           31 21.5
 71% 198 Davidson                24 38.4,   220 Dayton                  23 29.0
 71% 177 Towson                  27 29.7,   196 Hampton                  7 21.1
 71% 160 Columbia                45 27.4,   178 Cornell                 22 18.6
 71% 153 Missouri State          24 34.3,   211 Indiana State            7 24.4
 71% 124 New Hampshire           42 32.1,   186 Maine                   41 23.4
 71% 115 Rhode Island            35 39.3,   163 Albany                  21 29.8
 71%  78 Brigham Young           52 58.3,   185 Utah Tech               26 34.5
 71%  69 Boise State             20 29.6,   122 Wyoming                 17 20.8
 70%  31 Oklahoma                28 38.8,    25 Oklahoma State          13 32.8
 69% 132 Eastern Kentucky        45 39.5,   158 Kennesaw State          38 33.0
 69%  10 Southern California     48 45.7,    38 California - Los Angel  45 39.9
 68%  39 Pittsburgh              28 32.2,    40 Duke                    26 26.8
 68%  35 Sacramento State        27 39.9,    41 California - Davis      21 33.9
 68%   6 Texas Christian         29 37.1,    23 Baylor                  28 30.3
 66% 239 Bucknell                24 24.0,   253 Marist                  13 17.8
 65% 119 Northern Iowa           58 25.9,   173 South Dakota            14 20.8
 65%  90 California              27 24.8,   108 Stanford                20 20.9
 64% 217 Lafayette               14 18.7,   207 Lehigh                  11 14.3
 64% 152 Texas State - San Marc  16 33.2,   159 Arkansas State          13 29.4
 64% 114 Jacksonville State      40 32.2,   141 Central Arkansas        17 27.6
 63% 134 Youngstown State        28 34.6,   143 Southern Illinois       21 31.6
 63%  96 Ohio                    32 31.3,   139 Ball State              18 28.2
 63%  75 Auburn                  41 32.4,    73 Western Kentucky        17 28.1
 62%  82 Samford                 50 34.9,    92 Mercer                  44 31.9
 62%  74 Marshall                23 28.8,   103 Georgia Southern        10 26.0
 62%  54 Tulane                  59 37.2,    57 Southern Methodist      24 34.3
 61% 149 Gardner - Webb          38 35.0,   171 North Carolina A&T      17 31.9
 59%  56 Montana State           55 36.0,    47 Montana                 21 33.9
 57% 176 Saint Thomas - Minneso  27 30.4,   209 Butler                  13 27.8
 52% 142 Middle Tennessee State  49 27.5,   117 Florida Atlantic        21 26.9
 51% 192 North Carolina - Charl  26 39.7,   179 Louisiana Tech          21 39.5

 48% 201 Howard                  35 32.3,   208 Morgan State             6 32.7
 46%  17 Oregon                  20 32.6,     9 Utah                    17 33.4
 41%  81 Yale                    19 29.0,   120 Harvard                 14 31.0
 39% 128 Utah State              35 25.9,    91 San Jose State          31 28.5
 39%  32 Iowa                    13 14.7,    28 Minnesota               10 17.9
 33%  79 William & Mary          37 26.9,    71 Richmond                26 32.2
 33%  33 Texas Tech              14 20.8,    37 Iowa State              10 26.3
 32% 237 California Poly         49 33.1,   203 Portland State          42 37.9
 31% 249 Central Connecticut     39 34.5,   204 Stonehill               14 51.2
 31%  52 Arkansas                42 33.3,    16 Mississippi             27 38.3
 30% 246 Alabama A&M             24 27.1,   194 Texas Southern          20 33.1
 30% 175 Villanova               29 19.8,    94 Delaware                26 27.8
 30% 172 Western Michigan        12 22.0,   138 Central Michigan        10 28.1
 30% 155 Miami - Ohio            29 23.2,   144 Northern Illinois       23 28.9
 29% 247 Drake                   24 21.6,   227 Valparaiso               0 31.0
 29% 200 Hawaii                  31 30.8,   145 Nevada - Las Vegas      25 38.9
 29% 190 Stephen F. Austin       24 25.7,   156 Abilene Christian       21 35.0
 29% 189 Southern Utah           17 14.5,   165 Sam Houston State        7 26.9
 29%  84 Houston                 42 33.4,    55 East Carolina            3 42.9
 27% 151 Eastern Michigan        31 27.6,   106 Kent State              24 37.0
 26% 240 Long Island             37 17.5,   195 Sacred Heart            34 36.3
 26% 131 Virginia Tech           23 20.9,    70 Liberty                 22 32.5
 23% 180 Western Carolina        32 26.7,    98 Tennessee - Chattanoog  29 41.2
 19%  85 Vanderbilt              31 25.5,    20 Florida                 24 40.5
 17% 135 Pennsylvania            20 17.8,    86 Princeton               19 31.8
 14% 100 Indiana                 39 20.4,    42 Michigan State          31 36.7
 12% 258 Norfolk State           42 17.6,   229 South Carolina State    38 36.1
 12% 257 Mississippi Valley Sta  27 19.6,   193 Prairie View             7 39.1
 12% 174 Bowling Green           42 19.3,    89 Toledo                  35 39.5
 12% 107 Navy                    17 19.0,    29 Central Florida         14 38.6
 12%  65 South Carolina          63 23.3,     2 Tennessee               38 49.9
 10% 140 Georgia Tech            21 21.1,    19 North Carolina          17 47.2

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                7 1.04  29 1.00  31 0.93  51 0.97   4 0.82   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 122  90  93.5 0.96

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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