prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 1 Georgia 37 48.0, 131 Georgia Tech 14 1.0
92% 11 Utah 63 47.6, 177 Colorado 21 10.5
91% 4 Alabama 49 45.0, 57 Auburn 27 14.7
89% 3 Tennessee 56 54.1, 83 Vanderbilt 0 24.4
88% 126 Middle Tennessee State 33 38.4, 239 Florida International 28 17.2
88% 97 Army 44 37.3, 224 Massachusetts 7 12.4
88% 94 San Jose State 27 41.6, 190 Hawaii 14 20.1
88% 92 Ohio 38 39.2, 162 Bowling Green 14 23.4
88% 82 Richmond 41 44.3, 199 Davidson 0 21.0
88% 67 Boise State 42 36.6, 111 Utah State 23 19.4
88% 60 Texas - San Antonio 34 41.2, 152 Texas - El Paso 31 19.8
88% 52 Maryland 37 34.3, 130 Rutgers 0 17.5
88% 42 Central Florida 46 46.1, 166 South Florida 39 23.5
88% 9 Kansas State 47 41.5, 40 Kansas 27 20.5
88% 8 Penn State 35 40.4, 56 Michigan State 16 17.5
87% 7 Texas 38 37.3, 20 Baylor 27 20.7
83% 129 North Texas 21 40.4, 181 Rice 17 27.1
82% 5 Texas Christian 62 33.1, 45 Iowa State 14 15.6
80% 48 James Madison 47 39.5, 76 Coastal Carolina 7 26.6
80% 46 South Alabama 27 32.5, 157 Old Dominion 20 15.8
79% 61 Marshall 28 30.8, 104 Georgia State 23 17.4
79% 12 Florida State 45 39.3, 27 Florida 38 25.9
78% 105 Alabama - Birmingham 37 37.5, 183 Louisiana Tech 27 25.2
77% 87 East Carolina 49 33.6, 164 Temple 46 20.2
77% 51 Weber State 38 38.9, 128 North Dakota 31 24.9
76% 91 Troy State 48 31.2, 161 Arkansas State 19 19.0
76% 69 Fresno State 30 34.4, 124 Wyoming 0 21.6
72% 64 Montana 34 33.8, 99 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 22.7
72% 31 Illinois 41 24.2, 118 Northwestern 3 10.7
71% 197 Southern 34 30.1, 235 Grambling 17 20.6
71% 178 Colorado State 17 24.0, 204 New Mexico 0 14.6
71% 68 Syracuse 32 28.9, 136 Boston College 23 20.2
70% 155 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 34.1, 187 Nevada - Reno 22 27.1
70% 50 Purdue 30 35.7, 85 Indiana 16 29.8
70% 44 Pittsburgh 42 29.1, 114 Miami - Florida 16 22.1
70% 37 California - Los Angel 35 36.3, 88 California 28 29.2
68% 132 Southern Mississippi 20 32.3, 153 Northeast Louisiana 10 27.7
68% 110 Louisiana - Lafayette 41 28.9, 142 Texas State - San Marc 13 22.9
67% 72 Southern Methodist 34 44.1, 90 Memphis 31 39.5
67% 71 Arizona 38 37.4, 113 Arizona State 35 31.6
67% 10 Southern California 38 41.0, 16 Notre Dame 27 35.4
66% 109 Southeast Louisiana 45 37.9, 77 Idaho 42 32.2
65% 86 Western Kentucky 32 31.9, 133 Florida Atlantic 31 27.4
63% 147 Miami - Ohio 18 22.9, 150 Ball State 17 19.0
63% 108 Delaware 56 25.5, 112 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 21.2
63% 89 Furman 31 27.0, 103 Elon 6 23.4
63% 73 Air Force 13 21.2, 107 San Diego State 3 17.2
63% 19 Oregon State 38 32.6, 18 Oregon 34 29.5
61% 137 Eastern Michigan 38 30.1, 149 Central Michigan 19 27.7
57% 25 Texas Tech 51 32.4, 24 Oklahoma 48 30.8
51% 81 Brigham Young 35 28.5, 106 Stanford 26 28.3
40% 122 New Hampshire 52 44.5, 59 Fordham 42 47.9
40% 54 Missouri 29 28.0, 38 Arkansas 27 30.1
36% 22 Washington 51 26.6, 21 Washington State 33 30.4
35% 36 Tulane 27 24.2, 47 Cincinnati 24 29.4
35% 23 Mississippi State 24 33.7, 26 Mississippi 22 37.3
34% 127 Kent State 30 28.4, 125 Buffalo 27 32.6
33% 115 Georgia Southern 51 32.3, 74 Appalachian State 48 37.9
33% 29 Minnesota 23 18.8, 35 Wisconsin 16 23.9
31% 139 Gardner - Webb 52 32.9, 135 Eastern Kentucky 41 39.3
30% 170 Western Michigan 20 22.1, 100 Toledo 14 29.1
30% 49 Kentucky 26 16.1, 14 Louisville 13 24.0
29% 55 Duke 34 32.9, 17 Wake Forest 31 40.2
29% 53 North Carolina State 30 27.1, 30 North Carolina 27 35.8
28% 63 West Virginia 24 30.1, 33 Oklahoma State 19 40.7
27% 79 Texas A&M 38 16.4, 13 Louisiana State 23 29.6
24% 121 Tulsa 37 32.5, 58 Houston 30 45.4
16% 6 Michigan 45 29.7, 2 Ohio State 23 43.5
12% 259 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 19 11.4, 214 Alabama State 14 38.2
12% 205 Akron 44 23.6, 146 Northern Illinois 12 41.4
12% 98 Nebraska 24 9.8, 28 Iowa 17 29.8
12% 34 South Carolina 31 22.3, 15 Clemson 30 38.9
8% 196 New Mexico State 49 14.6, 78 Liberty 14 43.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.19 21 0.95 25 0.98 20 0.86 4 0.82 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 73 51 54.9 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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