prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 3 Michigan 43 43.9, 46 Purdue 22 20.0
88% 107 Jackson State 43 34.0, 193 Southern 24 13.4
88% 1 Georgia 50 33.6, 14 Louisiana State 30 18.2
84% 129 Buffalo 23 37.0, 178 Akron 22 21.1
82% 61 Texas - San Antonio 48 43.1, 121 North Texas 27 29.2
78% 78 William & Mary 54 42.0, 128 Gardner - Webb 14 26.2
71% 70 Holy Cross 35 38.4, 100 New Hampshire 19 27.9
71% 60 North Dakota State 49 33.8, 66 Montana 26 22.6
71% 40 Incarnate Word 41 43.3, 71 Furman 38 34.4
70% 64 South Dakota State 42 29.8, 72 Delaware 6 21.6
68% 38 Sacramento State 38 34.7, 74 Richmond 31 28.2
68% 16 Clemson 39 38.7, 37 North Carolina 10 33.6
67% 44 Montana State 33 39.4, 59 Weber State 25 33.4
66% 156 New Mexico State 65 35.4, 245 Valparaiso 3 26.5
66% 80 Troy State 45 27.8, 98 Coastal Carolina 26 22.4
61% 79 Samford 48 40.0, 95 Southeast Louisiana 42 37.5
61% 29 Tulane 45 31.4, 42 Central Florida 28 29.0
54% 12 Utah 47 37.8, 10 Southern California 24 36.9
42% 7 Kansas State 31 31.8, 4 Texas Christian 28 33.6
34% 126 Toledo 17 31.8, 84 Ohio 7 36.3
31% 57 Fresno State 28 25.0, 62 Boise State 16 31.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.89 9 1.18 5 1.38 5 1.16 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 21 18 15.0 1.20
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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