prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
74% 45 North Dakota State 27 44.9, 67 Samford 9 29.6
71% 48 South Dakota State 42 37.0, 71 Holy Cross 21 26.5
68% 39 Montana State 55 42.8, 63 William & Mary 7 35.9
49% 93 Army 20 23.8, 91 Navy 17 24.1
33% 46 Incarnate Word 66 42.4, 36 Sacramento State 63 46.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 2 0.74 2 1.38 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 5 3 3.3 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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