prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
70% 75 Utah State 31 57.5, 225 Connecticut 20 27.6
70% 68 Nevada - Reno 23 61.3, 204 New Mexico State 12 38.3
66% 149 Mercer 63 54.4, 238 Morehead State 13 36.2
66% 66 Florida State 47 51.0, 181 Duquesne 7 31.8
66% 47 North Carolina 56 53.2, 173 Florida A&M 24 34.8
65% 49 Western Kentucky 38 55.0, 155 Austin Peay 27 39.7
62% 119 Florida Atlantic 43 45.6, 174 North Carolina - Charl 13 33.1
58% 160 Nevada - Las Vegas 52 45.0, 216 Idaho State 21 38.7
56% 93 Illinois 38 38.0, 110 Wyoming 6 33.0
50% 239 Alabama State 23 39.9, 234 Howard 13 40.1
50% 138 North Texas 31 41.3, 154 Texas - El Paso 13 41.3
47% 175 Jacksonville State 42 37.5, 141 Stephen F. Austin 17 39.7
40% 163 Vanderbilt 63 37.0, 115 Hawaii 10 46.2
39% 106 Northwestern 31 31.8, 37 Nebraska 28 42.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.13 8 1.16 1 1.43 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 8.5 1.17
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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